Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) over DENVER

The Chargers are just 9-23 the last two seasons but they’ve been only 4-16 in games decided by 7 points or fewer. Considering teams historically win 50% of their one-score games regardless of how good they are overall, the Chargers were more like a .500 team the last two years (would have been 15-17 had they split their one-score games). Furthermore, the Chargers were even more unlucky to have suffered from 94 points of negative variance from turnovers, 3rd-downs, and Redzone scoring last season. This unlucky streak provides value moving forward as the Chargers should be considered a much better team than their 9-23 record indicates.

Other than their offensive line, the Chargers only lost one player, cornerback Brandon Flowers, who played at least 30% of the team’s snaps on either side of the ball. And since Keenan Allen joined the league, Philip Rivers has been almost twice as good with him on the field than off – Rivers has a 0.335 EPA/pass play (comparable to MVP Matt Ryan last year) in games Allen has played and a 0.175 EPA/pass play when Allen has missed games due to injury. That difference is equivalent to about 6 points per game. Allen was injured and out for the year last season in week 1, but now returns healthy for 2017 so I expect a significant improvement from the Chargers’ pass attack.

Denver’s pass defense was the best in the NFL by a wide margin last season based on EPA per opponents’ pass play, as the Broncos added about 80 more points from pass defense than the next best team (Arizona). Maintaining that level of pass defense would be hard even if Denver hadn’t lost elite pass rusher DeMarcus Ware – plus, they likely won’t benefit again from +19 points of defensive interception luck. Denver’s run defense should improve but I expect the unit to be worse overall this season.

Week 1 teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS since 1999 and this game applies to a 53-17-1 ATS subset of that trend. I will consider the Chargers a Strong Opinion at +3 points or higher.

My only Week 1 NFL Best Bet was a winner on Chicago +7 (released a couple of weeks ago before the line dropped to +6.5) and I was also 4-0 on my week 2 College Best Bets. Last season’s NFL Best Bets were 100-69 (59.2%) using the new play-by-play model and you can sign up for a season subscription or a 4-week package to save money on the weekly Best Bet passes.

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Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Broncos

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 0.0 0.0
Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
NYPP 0.0 0.0

Rush

Rush Plays 0.0 0.0
RB YPR 0.0 0.0
Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
Yards Per Rush 0.0 0.0

Game

All Snaps 0.0 0.0
Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Yards Per Play 0.0 0.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 0.0 0.0
Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control 0.0 0.0

Points 0.0 0.0

DEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.1 36.9
Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 38.9%
Sack Rate 6.3% 7.0%
Int Rate 2.0% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 17.1% 15.8%
Big Pass Yards 32.3% 29.9%
NYPP 6.1 5.2

Rush

Rush Plays 26.8 30.9
RB YPR 3.5 3.9
Stuff Rate 25.7% 16.0%
Succ Rush Plays 39.6% 46.4%
Big Rush Yards 34.9% 32.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.8 67.9
Early Down Succ 45.7% 46.0%
Succ Rate 42.1% 42.7%
Big Yards Rate 35.3% 31.3%
Yards Per Play 5.0 4.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.8 28.2
Run Ratio 40.7% 45.3%
Starting Field Pos 28.5 29.1
Game Control -1.1 1.1

Points 20.8 18.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CAR	21 – 20 W	-4.1	50.0% / 41.2%	7.1% / 8.8%	7.7% / 3.2%	5.7 / 5.2	45.2% / 68.8%	19.4% / 9.4%	4.8 / 4.9	59 / 66	50.0% / 52.9%	47.5% / 54.5%	54.7% / 12.9%	5.2 / 5.0	1.7% / 0.0%	52.5% / 48.5%	28.9 / 26.3
2	IND	34 – 20 W	4.5	58.8% / 37.8%	2.9% / 11.1%	3.0% / 2.5%	7.8 / 3.8	54.8% / 50.0%	22.6% / 4.5%	4.3 / 3.8	65 / 67	59.3% / 42.0%	56.9% / 41.8%	30.3% / 28.7%	6.2 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.5%	47.7% / 32.8%	24.8 / 26.7
3	@CIN	29 – 17 W	0.6	54.1% / 45.7%	5.4% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.2 / 5.4	29.2% / 56.7%	33.3% / 16.7%	2.2 / 4.8	61 / 65	44.7% / 57.1%	44.3% / 50.8%	38.8% / 46.5%	5.8 / 5.1	1.6% / 1.5%	39.3% / 46.2%	26.1 / 30.4
4	@TB	27 – 7 W	9.7	51.4% / 30.0%	11.4% / 12.5%	0.0% / 5.7%	6.2 / 3.6	30.6% / 29.6%	25.0% / 22.2%	2.6 / 2.7	71 / 67	50.0% / 31.9%	40.8% / 29.9%	27.4% / 17.1%	4.4 / 3.2	0.0% / 1.5%	50.7% / 40.3%	37.0 / 22.8
5	ATL	16 – 23 L	-11.1	40.0% / 36.7%	15.0% / 6.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.6 / 8.3	50.0% / 45.5%	16.7% / 27.3%	3.5 / 3.7	64 / 63	45.5% / 47.8%	43.8% / 41.3%	13.5% / 56.8%	4.2 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.6%	37.5% / 52.4%	25.0 / 32.7
6	@SD	13 – 21 L	-10.3	38.5% / 41.9%	3.8% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 5.4	43.8% / 20.7%	25.0% / 31.0%	5.3 / 3.4	68 / 60	40.4% / 32.6%	39.7% / 31.7%	21.1% / 35.8%	4.5 / 4.4	2.9% / 3.3%	23.5% / 48.3%	31.1 / 36.4
7	HOU	27 – 9 W	5.1	44.0% / 35.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.1	47.2% / 60.0%	5.6% / 16.0%	5.3 / 5.6	61 / 67	52.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 44.8%	43.7% / 19.2%	5.7 / 4.0	0.0% / 3.0%	59.0% / 37.3%	33.2 / 25.3
8	SD	27 – 19 W	3.6	38.5% / 31.4%	2.6% / 7.8%	2.6% / 6.4%	6.8 / 4.8	44.4% / 50.0%	33.3% / 15.4%	2.2 / 4.7	66 / 77	47.8% / 37.9%	40.9% / 37.7%	49.4% / 48.8%	4.9 / 4.8	3.0% / 0.0%	40.9% / 33.8%	32.4 / 27.4
9	@OAK	20 – 30 L	-8.3	38.5% / 42.4%	5.1% / 6.1%	2.7% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.4	25.0% / 50.0%	33.3% / 10.9%	2.8 / 4.8	51 / 79	38.5% / 53.3%	35.3% / 46.8%	61.5% / 33.8%	5.9 / 5.1	2.0% / 0.0%	23.5% / 58.2%	19.4 / 36.7
10	@NO	25 – 23 W	3.0	45.7% / 63.3%	13.0% / 3.3%	5.0% / 6.9%	5.1 / 9.8	30.8% / 42.9%	20.5% / 4.8%	2.7 / 3.8	85 / 51	35.5% / 57.1%	38.8% / 54.9%	3.2% / 46.9%	4.0 / 7.3	0.0% / 3.9%	45.9% / 41.2%	37.8 / 28.9
12	KC	27 – 30 L	-1.6	43.6% / 38.8%	12.8% / 12.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 3.9	41.0% / 48.1%	28.2% / 14.8%	3.2 / 3.1	78 / 76	41.8% / 46.4%	42.3% / 42.1%	59.8% / 7.7%	6.0 / 3.6	1.3% / 0.0%	50.0% / 35.5%	20.7 / 29.8
13	@JAC	20 – 10 W	5.0	34.6% / 32.6%	7.7% / 2.3%	0.0% / 4.8%	3.9 / 4.2	35.7% / 47.4%	21.4% / 13.2%	3.7 / 4.1	54 / 81	43.9% / 41.0%	35.2% / 39.5%	22.8% / 12.9%	3.8 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.2%	51.9% / 46.9%	32.5 / 23.9
14	@TEN	10 – 13 L	-9.3	56.4% / 21.7%	5.5% / 8.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 3.2	22.2% / 57.8%	44.4% / 11.1%	2.0 / 4.1	64 / 68	56.9% / 52.2%	51.6% / 45.6%	9.8% / 36.7%	5.4 / 3.8	3.1% / 0.0%	14.1% / 66.2%	25.6 / 28.6
15	NE	3 – 16 L	-6.6	40.9% / 41.2%	9.1% / 5.9%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.2	58.8% / 40.0%	23.5% / 15.0%	3.4 / 3.4	61 / 74	54.2% / 46.3%	45.9% / 40.5%	35.0% / 19.4%	5.1 / 4.2	3.3% / 0.0%	27.9% / 54.1%	23.1 / 29.5
16	@KC	10 – 33 L	-11.8	27.9% / 43.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.3% / 2.7%	4.3 / 6.6	50.0% / 50.0%	28.6% / 13.2%	4.5 / 6.3	57 / 75	35.0% / 48.2%	33.3% / 46.7%	40.2% / 54.2%	4.3 / 6.5	3.5% / 0.0%	24.6% / 50.7%	31.5 / 29.3
17	OAK	24 – 6 W	13.4	44.4% / 38.2%	0.0% / 5.9%	3.7% / 3.1%	7.6 / 4.8	24.4% / 25.0%	31.1% / 31.3%	3.2 / 3.6	72 / 50	35.4% / 39.5%	31.9% / 34.0%	53.8% / 23.5%	4.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 4.0%	62.5% / 32.0%	27.6 / 31.0

Los Angeles Chargers @

Denver Broncos

Mon, Sep 11

7:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis