Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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DALLAS (-2.5) vs Kansas City

Ezekiel Elliott is now expected to play this week and he is likely to run at well against a a Chiefs’ defense that has the league’s worst rush defense since Eric Berry’s injury in week 1.

I also expect Kansas City’s ground game to be successful. The Chiefs gain 4.9 yards per rush (3rd) and they’ll face a Dallas defense ranked 30th against the run according to metrics. Kansas City combined for 7.2 yards per rush against the other two rush defenses they’ve faced ranked in the bottom-5, the Patriots and Chargers. This game certainly has potential to be one of the top combined rushing yards games of the season.

I see no value here, as my two sets of ratings average to Dallas by 1 point with Elliott playing.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Cowboys

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.1 38.3
Succ Pass Plays 46.3% 43.6%
Sack Rate 8.3% 5.6%
Int Rate 0.4% 2.8%
Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 27.7%
Big Pass Yards 44.0% 49.8%
NYPP 7.1 7.1

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 27.5
RB YPR 4.6 4.3
Stuff Rate 25.7% 19.4%
Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 51.2%
Big Rush Yards 53.6% 51.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.9

Game

All Snaps 61.1 65.8
Early Down Succ 48.4% 49.5%
Succ Rate 45.5% 46.8%
Big Yards Rate 49.6% 50.6%
Yards Per Play 6.1 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.5 26.6
Run Ratio 42.1% 42.3%
Starting Field Pos 29.8 24.6
Game Control 2.9 -2.9

Points 29.5 22.5

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.6 40.7
Succ Pass Plays 45.3% 47.4%
Sack Rate 4.0% 8.6%
Int Rate 1.4% 1.2%
Deep Pass Rate 14.4% 13.3%
Big Pass Yards 35.7% 37.6%
NYPP 6.9 5.4

Rush

Rush Plays 31.1 24.0
RB YPR 4.2 4.1
Stuff Rate 22.3% 20.9%
Succ Rush Plays 51.8% 48.2%
Big Rush Yards 44.5% 44.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.7 64.7
Early Down Succ 51.7% 50.2%
Succ Rate 49.4% 48.2%
Big Yards Rate 39.5% 42.3%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 27.1
Run Ratio 48.5% 36.5%
Starting Field Pos 31.1 24.9
Game Control 3.7 -3.7

Points 28.3 23.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	42 – 27 W	-1.8	60.5% / 33.3%	7.9% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 6.3	42.4% / 50.0%	9.1% / 25.0%	5.7 / 3.5	71 / 75	63.5% / 46.4%	52.1% / 41.3%	53.7% / 54.8%	7.6 / 5.0	1.4% / 0.0%	46.5% / 48.0%	25.5 / 27.8
2	PHI	27 – 20 W	2.0	50.0% / 44.2%	12.5% / 11.5%	0.0% / 2.2%	7.3 / 5.8	47.4% / 58.8%	26.3% / 17.6%	5.9 / 6.3	51 / 69	51.3% / 46.3%	49.0% / 47.8%	45.3% / 42.4%	6.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.4%	37.3% / 24.6%	35.6 / 26.1
3	@LAC	24 – 10 W	8.0	34.6% / 35.7%	19.2% / 4.8%	0.0% / 7.5%	4.7 / 5.4	56.0% / 34.6%	20.0% / 34.6%	7.6 / 4.0	51 / 68	50.0% / 34.5%	45.1% / 35.3%	55.0% / 39.1%	6.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	49.0% / 38.2%	30.5 / 22.8
4	WAS	29 – 20 W	-4.3	47.5% / 45.8%	10.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 9.2	58.1% / 51.9%	19.4% / 14.8%	5.4 / 4.1	71 / 51	51.7% / 54.1%	52.1% / 49.0%	43.4% / 57.2%	6.0 / 6.5	0.0% / 2.0%	43.7% / 52.9%	21.2 / 26.8
5	@HOU	42 – 34 W	9.9	57.9% / 46.9%	2.6% / 9.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 7.8	40.0% / 60.9%	34.3% / 13.0%	3.6 / 6.3	73 / 55	47.4% / 56.8%	49.3% / 52.7%	31.6% / 64.8%	6.2 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.8%	47.9% / 41.8%	31.2 / 27.6
6	PIT	13 – 19 L	-5.8	35.1% / 57.7%	8.1% / 3.8%	0.0% / 4.0%	6.0 / 9.4	40.0% / 53.8%	33.3% / 17.9%	1.9 / 5.0	52 / 65	39.5% / 64.0%	36.5% / 55.4%	62.5% / 61.7%	4.8 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 60.0%	31.7 / 21.3
7	@OAK	30 – 31 L	3.0	48.6% / 44.2%	2.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.9 / 8.0	47.8% / 38.1%	26.1% / 19.0%	4.1 / 4.2	60 / 73	46.7% / 40.7%	48.3% / 42.5%	52.9% / 45.7%	7.1 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	38.3% / 28.8%	22.9 / 20.6
8	DEN	29 – 19 W	11.9	36.4% / 41.0%	3.0% / 7.7%	3.1% / 8.3%	6.0 / 4.8	25.9% / 61.3%	37.0% / 12.9%	3.0 / 5.7	60 / 70	37.0% / 53.6%	31.7% / 50.0%	52.0% / 39.0%	4.6 / 5.2	1.7% / 2.9%	45.0% / 44.3%	40.0 / 23.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYG	19 – 3 W	9.1	48.7% / 48.8%	2.6% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 4.8	54.8% / 23.1%	19.4% / 7.7%	4.2 / 2.8	70 / 54	50.9% / 46.2%	51.4% / 42.6%	37.0% / 27.8%	5.6 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	44.3% / 24.1%	29.4 / 16.0
2	@DEN	17 – 42 L	-11.9	42.3% / 64.7%	3.8% / 5.9%	4.0% / 3.1%	4.4 / 5.9	28.6% / 52.5%	42.9% / 17.5%	2.9 / 4.5	66 / 74	44.7% / 59.6%	39.4% / 58.1%	14.6% / 30.7%	4.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.4%	21.2% / 54.1%	37.6 / 26.9
3	@ARI	28 – 17 W	-0.5	42.1% / 38.9%	5.3% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 5.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	3.7 / 2.3	46 / 75	42.9% / 35.7%	37.0% / 37.3%	62.8% / 51.5%	6.0 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	58.7% / 28.0%	29.4 / 21.6
4	LA	30 – 35 L	2.3	35.1% / 48.6%	5.4% / 2.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.6	55.6% / 65.6%	14.8% / 21.9%	7.0 / 5.3	64 / 69	41.7% / 63.0%	43.8% / 56.5%	52.3% / 51.6%	6.9 / 6.0	1.6% / 0.0%	42.2% / 46.4%	22.4 / 34.8
5	GB	31 – 35 L	4.2	59.5% / 51.5%	2.7% / 12.1%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.6 / 5.5	60.0% / 64.0%	14.3% / 12.0%	4.7 / 6.4	72 / 58	57.9% / 58.0%	59.7% / 56.9%	28.7% / 43.3%	5.7 / 5.9	2.8% / 1.7%	48.6% / 43.1%	25.7 / 22.3
7	@SF	40 – 10 W	20.1	51.9% / 39.5%	0.0% / 11.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 4.3	68.9% / 59.1%	11.1% / 27.3%	5.9 / 4.7	72 / 65	66.7% / 48.0%	62.5% / 46.2%	57.0% / 40.7%	7.0 / 4.5	0.0% / 4.6%	62.5% / 33.8%	34.1 / 23.0
8	@WAS	33 – 19 W	2.5	37.5% / 39.5%	8.3% / 9.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.8 / 5.5	61.5% / 40.0%	20.5% / 26.7%	4.3 / 3.3	63 / 58	57.4% / 40.9%	52.4% / 39.7%	24.1% / 50.5%	4.9 / 4.9	1.6% / 3.4%	61.9% / 25.9%	39.1 / 29.7

Kansas City Chiefs @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Nov 5

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis