Game Analysis
Lean – NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) over Green Bay
Ty Montgomery was instructed not to take the ball out of the endzone with Green Bay down by 2 points with two minutes remaining last week in Los Angeles. Montgomery decided to ignore instructions and fumbled away the Packers’ chance of having Aaron Rodgers lead a game-winning drive. Montgomery was promptly traded to the Ravens, but his absence will be insignificant according to our numbers. However, the Packers parting ways with safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix for a 4th round pick is a trade I don’t understand unless there was something going on internally. The 25-year-old safety ranks 7th in yards allowed per cover snap and has 3 interceptions this season. Our metrics value Clinton-Dix at 0.7 points. Rob Gronkowski is gaining 2 yards per route run, just as he’s done in every year of his career, and is likely to exploit the hole left by Clinton-Dix in the middle of Green Bay’s defense.
Furthermore, the remaining strengths of this Packers defense, their cornerbacks and interior pass rush, are likely to be somewhat negated by New England’s offense. Tramon Williams and Kevin King are both surrendering less than 1 yard per cover snap, but the Patriots are one of just 4 teams targeting their wide receivers on less than 50% of passes. Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark rank 4th and 5th respectively among interior defensive linemen in pass rush efficiency, but Shaq Mason, Joe Thuney, and David Andrews have allowed just 3 sacks combined in the middle of New England’s offensive line.
Aaron Rodgers has improved in every game after injuring his knee in week 1, but our model favors the Patriots by 7 points and the trading of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix could prove significant as the Packers fight for playoff position in a loaded NFC. Also significant is Tom Brady’s incredible 53-17-5 ATS record in home games when not favored by more than 7 points, including 18-3-2 the last 6 seasons (2-1 this year with the lone spread loss a 3-point win laying 3.5 versus the Chiefs).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.0
33.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.4%
45.5%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
9.9%
-
Int Rate
0.7%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.4%
19.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.2%
50.7%
-
NYPP
7.5
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.7
27.4
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
19.4%
18.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.0%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.5%
32.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.7
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
49.5%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
49.7%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.9%
45.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.8
29.9
-
Run Ratio
34.0%
46.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
30.6
-
Game Control
-2.2
2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.6
38.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.6%
50.3%
-
Sack Rate
3.6%
3.5%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.5%
33.3%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.9
24.9
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
17.0%
19.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.4%
44.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.4%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
65.4
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
54.0%
45.4%
-
Succ Rate
52.0%
47.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.6%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.5
-
Run Ratio
45.0%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
31.6
-
Game Control
4.4
-4.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% /
35.9% |
9.8% /
10.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
27.8% /
59.3% |
16.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
59 /
66 |
40.0% /
48.9% |
39.0% /
45.5% |
59.5% /
38.1% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
40.9% |
30.7 /
25.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% /
56.0% |
8.9% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.6 /
8.2 |
54.2% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
69 /
68 |
55.4% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
44.4% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
26.5% |
29.9 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% /
50.0% |
8.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.9 /
11.0 |
64.7% /
32.4% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.5% |
42.4% /
38.6% |
35.9% /
60.1% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
64.9% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% /
27.5% |
4.8% /
17.5% |
2.5% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
2.2 |
56.3% /
43.8% |
37.5% /
25.0% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
74 /
56 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
51.4% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
31.0% |
5.7 /
2.6 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.2% /
28.6% |
27.4 /
27.3 |
| 5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% /
52.9% |
11.1% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
10.0 |
52.4% /
34.5% |
9.5% /
27.6% |
4.7 /
3.3 |
57 /
46 |
55.6% /
32.6% |
70.2% /
41.3% |
41.2% /
37.7% |
9.2 /
5.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
63.0% |
20.5 /
46.1 |
| 6 |
SF |
33 – 30 W |
-1.4 |
37.5% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
8.4 /
9.1 |
52.4% /
66.7% |
14.3% /
13.3% |
5.5 /
5.8 |
69 /
55 |
44.4% /
67.4% |
42.0% /
60.0% |
55.5% /
54.1% |
7.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
30.4% /
54.5% |
32.0 /
25.9 |
| 8 |
@LA |
27 – 29 L |
2.6 |
45.5% /
43.9% |
9.1% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
21.1% /
28.6% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
52 /
76 |
58.1% /
43.6% |
51.9% /
43.4% |
69.4% /
51.3% |
6.9 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
46.1% |
21.1 /
31.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
10.6 |
48.8% /
29.7% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.3 |
38.7% /
45.7% |
9.7% /
25.7% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
72 /
72 |
47.4% /
43.1% |
44.4% /
37.5% |
38.0% /
37.4% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
2.8% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
48.6% |
25.4 /
35.4 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
20 – 31 L |
-13.1 |
48.6% /
57.8% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.9 /
8.4 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
12.0% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.2 |
62 /
70 |
47.9% /
46.3% |
43.5% /
50.0% |
38.3% /
42.7% |
4.9 /
6.9 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
40.3% /
35.7% |
30.1 /
25.7 |
| 3 |
@DET |
10 – 26 L |
-8.1 |
42.9% /
61.1% |
7.1% /
2.8% |
3.8% /
2.9% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
57.9% /
45.5% |
21.1% /
21.2% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
47 /
69 |
56.8% /
54.5% |
48.9% /
53.6% |
19.1% /
36.7% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
47.8% |
26.4 /
30.2 |
| 4 |
MIA |
38 – 7 W |
19.6 |
42.9% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.7% /
4.0% |
7.8 /
4.3 |
34.9% /
11.1% |
18.6% /
38.9% |
4.1 /
3.1 |
78 /
45 |
34.5% /
21.2% |
38.5% /
24.4% |
45.1% /
20.9% |
5.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.2% |
55.1% /
40.0% |
32.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
IND |
38 – 24 W |
12.6 |
88.2% /
76.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
10.0 /
9.1 |
44.0% /
47.6% |
20.0% /
4.8% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
59 /
60 |
65.5% /
49.2% |
69.5% /
66.7% |
26.8% /
28.7% |
7.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
42.4% /
35.0% |
35.5 /
27.9 |
| 6 |
KC |
43 – 40 W |
5.3 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
9.8 |
64.1% /
70.6% |
15.4% /
17.6% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
76 /
53 |
60.0% /
59.5% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
44.9% /
55.4% |
6.6 /
8.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
51.3% /
32.1% |
30.6 /
39.9 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
38 – 31 W |
3.8 |
62.2% /
43.1% |
2.7% /
3.9% |
2.8% /
4.1% |
7.4 /
6.3 |
63.0% /
52.0% |
22.2% /
12.0% |
4.0 /
5.4 |
64 /
76 |
66.0% /
44.1% |
62.5% /
46.1% |
29.7% /
44.6% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
32.9% |
25.6 /
32.9 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
New England Patriots