Detroit Lions
@ 
New York Giants
Game Analysis
Lean – NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Detroit
The Giants offense could only manage 3 points last week and many will be blaming the absence of top receiver Odell Beckham. However, since the start of Beckham’s career, New York’s offensive adjEPA has been about the same in the 5 other games he has missed compared to when he’s played. The Giants have a 0.15 offensive adjEPA when he does not start and a 0.14 offensive adjEPA when does. Contrary to fantasy football, most top wide receivers mean very little to the point spread. In truth, the Giants offense was just outplayed by Dallas but they should look better against a much easier opponent this week – the Lions defense ranked 26th last season in adjEPA/play.
Detroit had another 4th quarter comeback after setting the NFL record last season, but their 12 point win flatters them as adjEPA only expected them to win by 3. The Lions benefitted from four Cardinals’ turnovers and had some luck scoring touchdowns on all 3 of their Redzone trips.
Our model favors the Giants by 4 ½ points if Beckham doesn’t play and by 5 ½ points if he does play, so I’ll lean with the Giants either way.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Lions
- Giants
Pass
- Pass Plays 42.0 49.0
- Succ Pass Plays 47.6% 42.9%
- Sack Rate 2.4% 2.0%
- Int Rate 2.4% 6.3%
- Deep Pass Rate 15.4% 12.8%
- Big Pass Yards 26.7% 30.7%
- NYPP 6.8 5.4
Rush
- Rush Plays 28.0 18.0
- RB YPR 2.5 2.5
- Stuff Rate 21.4% 16.7%
- Succ Rush Plays 35.7% 38.9%
- Big Rush Yards 30.1% 22.2%
- Yards Per Rush 3.0 2.5
Game
- All Snaps 70.0 67.0
- Early Down Succ 42.3% 41.2%
- Succ Rate 42.9% 41.8%
- Big Yards Rate 27.4% 29.4%
- Yards Per Play 5.3 4.6
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.5%
- Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 23.7
- Run Ratio 40.0% 26.9%
- Starting Field Pos 36.6 28.5
- Game Control -2.7 2.7
- Points 35.0 23.0