Game Analysis

Lean – Cleveland (+20) over BALTIMORE

• Baltimore wins the AFC North with a win or a Pittsburgh loss on Saturday.
• Cleveland’s quarterback carousel continues with Bailey Zappe set to start this week. Zappe is an upgrade over Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is averaging -0.31 EPA/play for his career making him the worst quarterback since 2020 with at least 200 plays. Zappe has averaged -0.20 EPA/play ranking 5th-worst among the same 84 qualifiers.
• Zappe will not have the Browns’ best receiver TE David Njoku, who is averaging 1.33 yards per route run (10th).
• Furthermore, Zappe will not get support from the ground game as the Ravens’ defense is allowing a league-low 32% rush success rate.
• Cleveland’s defense leads the NFL with a 41% pressure rate and I think they can disrupt Lamar Jackson in this game.
• The Browns have the 3rd-highest Cover 1 rate and Baltimore’s yppp against Cover 1 is only 84% of the yppp versus other coverages (31st).
• Cleveland’s defense is allowing less than half as much EPA/target versus tight ends as wide receivers and the Browns can limit Baltimore’s TEs with a 29% target share (5th-highest).
• The Ravens will be without running back Justice Hill, who is averaging 1.64 yards per route run (4th).
• Our model makes Baltimore a 20.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.8.
• If the Ravens are up by multiple touchdowns in the 4th quarter, they might pull the starters and 75% of 20.8 is 15.6.