Game Analysis
MIAMI (-4) vs Buffalo
The Bills are now 3-2 when Josh Allen plays the entire game and the rookie quarterback once again showed his scrambling prowess last week with nearly 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. Allen has added 13.2 points on the ground according to our metrics, which ranks 5th among all quarterbacks despite making only 6 starts. Buffalo has the second-highest adjusted rushing rate in the league, but I expect Miami’s 5th-rated run defense to make it difficult for the Bills to move the ball on Sunday – although quarterback runs are less influenced by the quality of the opposing run defense.
On the surface, Ryan Tannehill’s numbers looked great in his first game back, throwing for 7.7 yards per pass play, but one of his touchdowns came on a 33-yard swing pass to Kenyan Drake and the 74-yard touchdown to Leonte Carroo could’ve just as easily been intercepted. Buffalo’s pass defense ranks 8th in our numbers and Tannehill’s stat-line should look more mediocre in this game.
Our model makes the Dolphins a 3.6-point favorite, which is not enough value to even have a lean on this game, and the Over/Under line looks fair even after adjusting for divisional games being lower scoring.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.5
32.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.6%
49.6%
-
Sack Rate
8.5%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
5.0%
3.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
27.1%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.4%
30.3%
-
NYPP
5.4
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.6
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
30.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.0%
40.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.3%
52.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.1
60.1
-
Early Down Succ
41.4%
48.6%
-
Succ Rate
39.4%
45.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.1%
37.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
29.3
-
Run Ratio
47.3%
46.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
32.8
-
Game Control
-3.7
3.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.5
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
49.7%
-
Sack Rate
9.5%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
4.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
22.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.1%
45.3%
-
NYPP
6.7
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.5
30.2
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
24.1%
20.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.2%
42.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.9%
48.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
54.9
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.0%
48.4%
-
Succ Rate
45.7%
46.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.2%
47.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.3
30.3
-
Run Ratio
44.6%
47.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
26.4
-
Game Control
-1.8
1.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
3 – 47 L |
-25.9 |
20.5% /
42.5% |
15.4% /
5.0% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
6.3 |
22.7% /
44.1% |
31.8% /
29.4% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
61 /
74 |
24.4% /
43.3% |
21.3% /
43.2% |
39.9% /
43.1% |
2.5 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.1% /
45.9% |
30.5 /
41.3 |
| 2 |
LAC |
20 – 31 L |
-14.5 |
36.8% /
65.5% |
13.2% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.3 |
54.5% /
33.3% |
31.8% /
40.7% |
3.8 /
4.1 |
60 /
56 |
45.7% /
55.6% |
43.3% /
50.0% |
59.0% /
44.0% |
4.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
48.2% |
26.7 /
36.5 |
| 3 |
@MIN |
27 – 6 W |
22.0 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
12.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
42.1% /
16.7% |
23.7% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
63 /
65 |
42.9% /
48.0% |
41.3% /
44.6% |
42.1% /
3.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
60.3% /
9.2% |
40.2 /
17.7 |
| 4 |
@GB |
0 – 22 L |
-12.8 |
27.5% /
47.6% |
17.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
2.5% |
2.2 /
6.7 |
43.8% /
56.3% |
25.0% /
37.5% |
3.6 /
4.4 |
56 /
74 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
32.1% /
51.4% |
31.0% /
49.6% |
2.6 /
5.7 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
43.2% |
27.3 /
27.4 |
| 5 |
TEN |
13 – 12 W |
2.6 |
63.6% /
81.3% |
9.1% /
12.5% |
10.0% /
7.1% |
7.2 /
7.6 |
46.5% /
56.0% |
20.9% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.0 |
54 /
41 |
43.8% /
51.2% |
50.0% /
65.9% |
18.8% /
29.0% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
4.9% |
79.6% /
61.0% |
34.8 /
30.2 |
| 6 |
@HOU |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
29.0% /
27.3% |
6.5% /
21.2% |
6.9% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
40.7% /
36.0% |
22.2% /
28.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
58 /
58 |
32.6% /
34.9% |
34.5% /
31.0% |
46.3% /
34.1% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
1.7% /
1.7% |
46.6% /
43.1% |
28.2 /
36.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
5 – 37 L |
-16.0 |
39.4% /
56.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
43.9% |
31.8% /
14.6% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
55 /
64 |
48.9% /
53.5% |
43.6% /
48.4% |
39.9% /
53.2% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
64.1% |
22.8 /
36.3 |
| 8 |
NE |
6 – 25 L |
-6.6 |
36.4% /
54.3% |
6.8% /
4.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
33.3% |
35.0% /
18.5% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
64 /
73 |
43.5% /
52.7% |
37.5% /
46.6% |
46.4% /
35.7% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
37.0% |
29.3 /
28.2 |
| 9 |
CHI |
9 – 41 L |
-18.7 |
35.8% /
42.9% |
7.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
5.0% |
3.2 /
6.0 |
28.6% /
39.3% |
42.9% /
28.6% |
3.5 /
2.4 |
81 /
49 |
33.3% /
51.5% |
33.3% /
40.8% |
39.4% /
39.4% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
57.1% |
25.9 /
43.9 |
| 10 |
@NYJ |
41 – 10 W |
20.8 |
48.1% /
37.8% |
3.7% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
8.9 /
3.1 |
47.9% /
55.6% |
18.8% /
38.9% |
4.5 /
4.6 |
75 /
55 |
49.1% /
52.5% |
48.0% /
43.6% |
53.0% /
37.2% |
6.0 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.0% /
32.7% |
36.8 /
28.5 |
| 12 |
JAC |
24 – 21 W |
4.4 |
36.8% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
8.4 /
4.1 |
45.9% /
53.8% |
16.2% /
23.1% |
4.6 /
5.8 |
56 /
65 |
52.4% /
51.9% |
42.9% /
49.2% |
50.5% /
62.8% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
60.0% |
31.5 /
24.6 |
| 13 |
@MIA |
17 – 21 L |
-4.1 |
37.1% /
51.9% |
5.7% /
11.1% |
6.1% /
4.2% |
6.2 /
4.3 |
51.6% /
28.0% |
22.6% /
40.0% |
6.4 /
2.5 |
66 /
52 |
46.2% /
48.7% |
43.9% /
40.4% |
68.0% /
16.9% |
6.3 /
3.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.0% /
48.1% |
23.4 /
28.6 |
| 14 |
NYJ |
23 – 27 L |
4.8 |
37.5% /
48.0% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
5.4% /
4.0% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
45.2% /
30.0% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
5.7 /
2.7 |
71 /
55 |
38.6% /
37.8% |
40.8% /
38.2% |
39.4% /
38.4% |
5.2 /
4.5 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.7% /
54.5% |
27.2 /
47.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
27 – 17 W |
3.5 |
55.2% /
36.8% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
7.1% /
7.9% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
53.3% /
44.8% |
26.7% /
17.2% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
59 /
67 |
66.7% /
41.2% |
54.2% /
40.3% |
44.3% /
17.0% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
43.3% |
35.5 /
29.2 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
20 – 12 W |
9.2 |
44.4% /
43.2% |
14.8% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
4.5 /
7.3 |
52.9% /
26.3% |
26.5% /
36.8% |
4.1 /
2.2 |
61 /
63 |
55.8% /
39.6% |
49.2% /
38.1% |
36.2% /
50.3% |
4.3 /
5.7 |
3.3% /
1.6% |
55.7% /
30.2% |
34.4 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
OAK |
28 – 20 W |
-2.8 |
48.0% /
57.1% |
4.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
13.3 /
7.7 |
20.0% /
55.9% |
33.3% /
14.7% |
2.8 /
3.3 |
40 /
76 |
43.3% /
62.1% |
37.5% /
56.6% |
62.8% /
32.6% |
9.4 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
44.7% |
30.6 /
19.7 |
| 4 |
@NE |
7 – 38 L |
-19.6 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
5.7% |
4.3 /
7.8 |
11.1% /
34.9% |
38.9% /
18.6% |
3.1 /
4.1 |
45 /
78 |
21.2% /
34.5% |
24.4% /
38.5% |
20.9% /
45.1% |
3.8 /
5.8 |
2.2% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
55.1% |
29.5 /
32.0 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
17 – 27 L |
4.6 |
77.3% /
68.2% |
13.6% /
9.1% |
10.5% /
5.0% |
7.7 /
10.4 |
45.5% /
29.6% |
13.6% /
25.9% |
5.8 /
3.9 |
44 /
49 |
48.9% /
45.7% |
61.4% /
46.9% |
25.3% /
52.9% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
2.3% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
55.1% |
25.5 /
22.9 |
| 6 |
CHI |
31 – 28 W |
0.3 |
48.8% /
54.5% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
4.7% /
3.2% |
8.8 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
43.8% |
9.7% /
9.4% |
5.2 /
5.2 |
74 /
65 |
53.4% /
48.0% |
52.7% /
49.2% |
48.2% /
60.7% |
7.3 /
7.2 |
1.4% /
3.1% |
41.9% /
49.2% |
28.7 /
25.3 |
| 7 |
DET |
21 – 32 L |
-8.1 |
48.6% /
60.9% |
11.4% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
9.1 |
47.4% /
54.1% |
26.3% /
21.6% |
5.6 /
6.8 |
54 /
60 |
46.5% /
66.0% |
48.1% /
56.7% |
40.4% /
60.8% |
6.0 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.2% /
61.7% |
25.2 /
23.0 |
| 8 |
@HOU |
23 – 42 L |
-7.4 |
40.0% /
45.0% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
12.0 |
64.0% /
38.9% |
20.0% /
19.4% |
4.6 /
5.3 |
65 /
56 |
54.9% /
39.0% |
49.2% /
41.1% |
34.3% /
64.0% |
5.7 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.5% /
64.3% |
25.3 /
29.7 |
| 9 |
NYJ |
13 – 6 W |
3.2 |
42.9% /
34.9% |
14.3% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
3.7 /
4.7 |
24.1% /
38.1% |
24.1% /
28.6% |
2.3 /
3.8 |
57 /
64 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
33.3% /
35.9% |
15.3% /
41.8% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.9% /
32.8% |
32.4 /
18.4 |
| 10 |
@GB |
12 – 31 L |
-9.9 |
37.2% /
50.0% |
14.0% /
6.7% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
56.5% /
50.0% |
13.0% /
10.7% |
5.7 /
7.1 |
66 /
58 |
45.8% /
58.5% |
43.9% /
50.0% |
38.1% /
54.5% |
4.5 /
6.6 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
34.8% /
48.3% |
31.4 /
35.7 |
| 12 |
@IND |
24 – 27 L |
2.2 |
42.3% /
61.5% |
3.8% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
7.7 /
8.6 |
42.3% /
53.8% |
26.9% /
19.2% |
4.4 /
4.5 |
52 /
65 |
46.2% /
62.7% |
42.3% /
58.5% |
55.6% /
46.6% |
6.1 /
7.0 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
50.0% /
40.0% |
28.8 /
24.4 |
| 13 |
BUF |
21 – 17 W |
4.1 |
51.9% /
37.1% |
11.1% /
5.7% |
4.2% /
6.1% |
4.3 /
6.2 |
28.0% /
51.6% |
40.0% /
22.6% |
2.5 /
6.4 |
52 /
66 |
48.7% /
46.2% |
40.4% /
43.9% |
16.9% /
68.0% |
3.4 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
48.1% /
47.0% |
28.6 /
23.4 |
| 14 |
NE |
34 – 33 W |
-2.0 |
45.8% /
53.3% |
20.8% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
7.6 |
71.4% /
33.3% |
14.3% /
23.3% |
9.0 /
2.6 |
45 /
75 |
65.8% /
42.4% |
57.8% /
45.3% |
58.5% /
28.0% |
9.2 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.7% /
40.0% |
25.3 /
35.3 |
Buffalo Bills
@ 
Miami Dolphins