Game Analysis
Lean – Baltimore (-2) over GREEN BAY
I think the market is overvaluing Brett Hundley’s performance in Chicago last week. The Bears were without their defensive play-caller Danny Trevathan, and Bryce Callahan, who surrenders just 0.87 yards per cover snap, 7th among slot cornerbacks. Prior to last week, Hundley averaged just 4.3 yards per pass play, which is likely a better indicator of his performance moving forward. The Ravens defense ranks 6th in yppp allowed and I expect them to shut down the Packers’ aerial attack on Sunday.
Green Bay has the league’s second-best rushing offense according to my numbers and it would seem they have a decent matchup against Baltimore’s 21st-ranked rush defense. However, nose tackle Brandon Williams returned after missing 4 games and the Ravens rush defense is improving as he gets back to full strength. Baltimore allowed just 2.9 yards per rush in their last two outings.
Joe Flacco is not having a good season but I believe Flacco is undervalued because he’s faced a gauntlet of opposing defenses. Every defense Baltimore has played thus far ranks above average in yards per play allowed, outside of Oakland and Miami. Flacco threw for 8.5 yppp against the Raiders and 6.7 yppp against Miami before leaving the game with a concussion. The Packers pass defense ranks 31st in my metrics and I expect Flacco to perform well in this matchup.
Teams with good coaching typically perform better than expectations with an extra week to prepare and John Harbaugh is 7-2 ATS following a bye week. My model sees some value on Baltimore and I like the match-up. I’ll lean with the Ravens.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.1
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.5%
39.7%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
4.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.3%
21.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
22.8%
38.4%
-
NYPP
4.8
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.9
30.9
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
24.0%
25.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
39.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.7%
45.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
64.7
-
Early Down Succ
44.0%
42.4%
-
Succ Rate
41.3%
39.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.0%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
28.5
-
Run Ratio
45.8%
46.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.8
29.5
-
Game Control
0.2
-0.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.3
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.7%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.6%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.2%
19.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.9%
39.4%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.1
29.3
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
18.1%
30.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.7%
41.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.4%
49.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
62.4
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
49.0%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
47.1%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.3%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
29.4
-
Run Ratio
39.0%
45.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.1
28.2
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
20 – 0 W |
11.0 |
27.8% /
30.6% |
5.6% /
13.9% |
5.9% /
12.9% |
6.2 /
4.0 |
45.2% /
36.4% |
19.0% /
22.7% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
39.1% /
34.1% |
40.0% /
32.8% |
32.1% /
45.7% |
4.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
70.0% /
37.9% |
32.2 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
CLE |
24 – 10 W |
9.4 |
50.0% /
31.1% |
5.6% /
6.7% |
2.9% /
9.5% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
36.4% /
38.1% |
27.3% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
69 /
66 |
47.3% /
36.5% |
43.5% /
33.3% |
39.9% /
67.1% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
47.8% /
31.8% |
33.9 /
22.3 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
7 – 44 L |
-23.9 |
24.1% /
54.5% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
7.4 |
56.0% /
31.6% |
20.0% /
10.5% |
5.4 /
4.4 |
54 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.9% /
42.3% |
39.2% /
35.8% |
3.4 /
5.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
53.5% |
24.1 /
38.5 |
| 4 |
PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-8.6 |
52.9% /
41.9% |
7.8% /
3.2% |
4.3% /
3.3% |
4.0 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
46.5% |
46.7% /
23.3% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
66 /
74 |
56.9% /
45.6% |
51.5% /
44.6% |
25.3% /
26.4% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
22.7% /
58.1% |
28.5 /
31.1 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
30 – 17 W |
11.8 |
42.3% /
34.5% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
4.7 |
44.2% /
56.0% |
9.3% /
24.0% |
3.4 /
4.3 |
69 /
54 |
46.9% /
43.9% |
43.5% /
44.4% |
46.5% /
40.0% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
62.3% /
46.3% |
34.0 /
24.9 |
| 6 |
CHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.4 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
6.8% /
19.0% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
46.2% /
41.8% |
15.4% /
29.1% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
70 /
76 |
37.3% /
42.1% |
34.3% /
38.2% |
21.6% /
41.1% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
1.4% /
2.6% |
37.1% /
72.4% |
29.9 /
27.6 |
| 7 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-5.1 |
36.4% /
54.8% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
3.3 /
6.1 |
40.0% /
39.4% |
35.0% /
27.3% |
3.2 /
5.1 |
64 /
64 |
36.2% /
46.9% |
37.5% /
46.9% |
29.8% /
26.3% |
3.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
51.6% |
25.4 /
33.2 |
| 8 |
MIA |
40 – 0 W |
17.5 |
36.4% /
29.8% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
5.5 /
3.2 |
34.9% /
26.3% |
20.9% /
42.1% |
4.1 /
2.4 |
65 /
66 |
42.6% /
30.6% |
35.4% /
28.8% |
45.0% /
41.3% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
66.2% /
28.8% |
35.3 /
22.2 |
| 9 |
@TEN |
20 – 23 L |
-6.3 |
49.1% /
51.6% |
3.6% /
9.7% |
3.8% /
3.6% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
40.9% /
36.4% |
22.7% /
22.7% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
77 /
53 |
47.4% /
53.8% |
46.8% /
45.3% |
8.2% /
49.0% |
4.4 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
41.5% |
24.8 /
34.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
17 – 9 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
40.0% |
8.7% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
35.5% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
50.0% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
77 /
48 |
44.6% /
44.4% |
44.2% /
39.6% |
37.8% /
58.7% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
40.3% /
37.5% |
25.9 /
27.5 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
23 – 34 L |
-12.4 |
50.9% /
51.6% |
5.7% /
9.7% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
56.3% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
69 /
58 |
53.8% /
55.3% |
52.2% /
53.4% |
24.2% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
46.6% |
22.1 /
26.7 |
| 3 |
CIN |
27 – 24 W |
-6.6 |
43.8% /
53.3% |
12.5% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
6.4 |
47.1% /
32.3% |
29.4% /
29.0% |
3.8 /
3.6 |
65 /
61 |
44.0% /
46.8% |
44.6% /
42.6% |
58.1% /
31.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
26.2% /
50.8% |
25.8 /
26.5 |
| 4 |
CHI |
35 – 14 W |
16.9 |
41.4% /
38.2% |
6.9% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
5.8 /
6.0 |
48.0% /
40.0% |
4.0% /
26.7% |
3.7 /
3.4 |
54 /
64 |
43.2% /
36.0% |
44.4% /
39.1% |
50.6% /
25.6% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
46.3% /
46.9% |
33.5 /
28.5 |
| 5 |
@DAL |
35 – 31 W |
-4.2 |
51.5% /
59.5% |
12.1% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
5.5 /
6.6 |
64.0% /
60.0% |
12.0% /
14.3% |
6.4 /
4.7 |
58 /
72 |
58.0% /
57.9% |
56.9% /
59.7% |
43.3% /
28.7% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
2.8% |
43.1% /
48.6% |
22.3 /
25.7 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
10 – 23 L |
-5.9 |
39.0% /
44.7% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
8.1% /
2.6% |
3.8 /
6.3 |
20.8% /
35.3% |
29.2% /
41.2% |
3.0 /
3.3 |
65 /
72 |
33.3% /
43.9% |
32.3% /
40.3% |
11.5% /
46.0% |
3.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.9% /
47.2% |
30.1 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
NO |
17 – 26 L |
2.5 |
23.1% /
59.0% |
3.8% /
2.6% |
4.0% /
5.3% |
3.0 /
8.3 |
70.8% /
53.8% |
16.7% /
12.8% |
7.5 /
4.2 |
50 /
78 |
48.7% /
61.4% |
46.0% /
56.4% |
45.4% /
49.2% |
5.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.0% /
50.0% |
18.2 /
30.1 |
| 9 |
DET |
17 – 30 L |
-9.8 |
43.9% /
64.7% |
7.3% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
10.4 |
70.6% /
24.2% |
11.8% /
45.5% |
4.6 /
1.9 |
58 /
67 |
59.6% /
40.7% |
51.7% /
44.8% |
25.4% /
43.2% |
5.4 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
29.3% /
49.3% |
25.8 /
32.5 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
23 – 16 W |
5.0 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
10.7% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.7 |
52.6% /
29.4% |
15.8% /
35.3% |
4.2 /
3.2 |
66 /
57 |
55.3% /
35.7% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
39.1% /
51.1% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
57.6% /
29.8% |
30.8 /
26.5 |
Baltimore Ravens
@ 
Green Bay Packers