Game Analysis

CINCINNATI (-3) vs Baltimore

Lean – Over (46)

· Cincinnati’s offense had just an 18% success rate last week in Cleveland. Only the Jets in New England had a lower offensive success rate all of last season.

· The Bengals have a solid opportunity to turn it around though with the Ravens missing three of their top six highest-paid players.

· Baltimore Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out for the second straight week meaning it’ll be backup CB Brandon Stephens trying to guard Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins on every snap. Stephens ranked 118th in coverage grade by PFF last year out of 135 qualifiers

· Ravens’ safety Marcus Williams will also be sidelined. Williams was incredible at taking away the deep part of the field in 2022. Only 14 completions were conceded against Williams’ coverage all last year with a long of 22 yards.

· Joe Burrow was 0 for 7 on go-routes last week versus the Browns but I expect him to hit some downfield shots against Baltimore’s secondary minus Humphrey and Williams.

· Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley will miss time again. The former All-Pro left tackle only has 19 starts during the last four seasons. Cincinnati edge defender Trey Hendrickson finished 5th in pass-rushing efficiency in 2022 and he will line up across from backup tackle Patrick Mekari.

· Baltimore starting C Tyler Linderbaum is also out on the offensive line which could cause major problems for Lamar Jackson, who averaged 10.3 yppp when kept clean in week 1 but was 2 of 7 for 14 yards and a pick against pressure.

· Jackson used play action on 43% of dropbacks (2nd-highest) last game and I believe offensive coordinator Todd Monken will stick to the run fakes to help take the burden off the two backups starting on the Ravens offensive line.

· Monken also called for a league-high 27% screen rate in week 1 but those will likely get shut down in this game as Bengals LBs Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson both ranked top 15 in coverage grade by PFF in 2022.

· Baltimore’s first-round pick WR Zay Flowers had 10 targets in his debut, but he will be limited in this matchup by Cincinnati nickelback Mike Hilton, who allowed just 1.04 yards per slot cover snap in 2022 (4th). Jackson will be glad to have TE Mark Andrew back on the field after the Pro Bowler missed week 1.

· All told the Ravens are about three points worse than they would be at full strength due to the losses of Humphrey, Williams, Stanley, and Linderbaum.

· Our model favors the Bengals by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, but Cincy applies to a 17-49-2 ATS situation that plays against favorites after a horrible offensive performance.