Game Analysis

*PHILADELPHIA (+3 at -120) over Atlanta

I certainly did not expect to be on the Eagles in the playoffs after Carson Wentz was injured. The market initially reacted only 1.5 points when Foles took over under center in week 15 while my quarterback model made a 5-point adjustment. Subsequently, we successfully faded Foles in all of his starts thus far betting the Giants in his first game, the under in his second game, and the under again in his third game as well as a Strong Opinion on Oakland.

However, now the market has gone too far in the other direction. The Rams were favored by 6 at home last week against the Falcons and the Eagles certainly would’ve been priced in that range with Wentz at quarterback, probably even higher, implying the market is now making the Wentz to Foles adjustment around 9 points, which is a significant overreaction to recent performance. Foles would have to be the worst quarterback in the league, or maybe even worse than that, to justify Atlanta being a 3 point favorite in this game but Foles is far from bad. I realize he’s been bad in 3 starts this season, averaging just 4.7 yards per pass play, but his career average of 6.3 yppp is actually only 0.4 yppp lower than Carson Wentz’ 6.7 yppp average this season. I don’t think Foles is actually as good as his career numbers but he’s certainly not as bad as the market is pricing him at now.

Foles, as well as the coaching staff, had an extra week of preparation and I expect Philadelphia’s 6th-rated rush offense to exploit an Atlanta rush defense ranked 25th in my metrics and the Eagles should put up a decent number of points in this game even though I don’t expect Foles to have a particularly good game against a good Falcons’ pass defense.

While the Eagles’ offense has struggled recently the defense has continued to be very good and lost in Foles’ struggles is the fact that the Eagles actually won 2 of his 3 starts. It will be the defense that will likely be the difference in this game too. The absence of Andy Levitre on the Falcons’ offensive line makes an impactful difference for Matt Ryan. Atlanta’s sack allowed rate was an excellent 3.8% with Levitre in the lineup this season but they’ve surrendered a sack on 7.5% of dropbacks in 4 games without him. Backup guard Ben Garland allowed 24 pressures, twice as many as Levitre despite playing 176 fewer pass blocking snaps, and surrendered 7 of Aaron Donald’s 11 pressures last week. It will not get easier for Garland and the Falcons’ offensive line on Saturday facing an Eagles defense ranked 4th with 107 pressures from interior defenders. Philadelphia’s defense is led by Fletcher Cox, selected to 3-straight Pro Bowls, and he will exploit Garland putting Matt Ryan under substantial pressure throughout the game.

Despite finding the end zone just 3 times in the regular season, Julio Jones had an excellent year gaining 3.1 yards per route run, highest of any receiver this season. The Eagles don’t have any weaknesses in their secondary but they also do not have an elite shutdown corner to guard elite receivers, so Jones should get his as he usually does. However, the rest of the Eagles’ stout defense matches up favorably with Atlanta.

Overall, I do rate the Falcons as a slightly better team after adjusting the Eagles’ rating down by 5 points for Foles being at quarterback, but the home field advantage in this round of the playoffs is nearly 5 points and the Eagles should still be a favorite even with that significant adjustment to the Eagles’ offense. There has been a market overreaction Atlanta’s 13-point victory last week, in a game in which they were outgained by 1.1 yards per play by the Rams, and by Nick Foles’ poor play in limited action this season. Now there is suddenly value on the Eagles and they are not the first high-seed to struggle down the stretch and not get the proper respect from the oddsmakers. In fact, there have been 3 other home teams in this round of the playoffs (#1 or #2 seeds) that have failed to cover the spread in at least their last two regular-season games and been made a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, meaning they are considered the worse team despite their higher seed. Those 3 underappreciated teams won those games by an average of 23.3 points and getting a rested home team as an underdog is incredibly rare in the playoffs and has been profitable (4-1 straight up and ATS). Home underdogs or picks, in general, have been good bets in the post-season, as those suddenly out of favor higher seeded teams have gone 28-15-1 ATS and 25-19 straight up. Playoff underdogs of 3 points or less with an equal or better win-loss record are 32-9 ATS since 1980 (29-12 straight up) and Atlanta applies to a 53-126-4 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their good performances the last two weeks and upset win last week (that situation is 9-32 ATS in the playoffs, including 0-3 straight up when applying to road favorites).

The situation and the line value are squarely on the side of the Eagles and I probably should be making this a higher rated play than I am. But, it has been a challenge to go from anti-Foles thinking to suddenly being on Foles as the best bet of the week. So, I’ll just make the Eagles a 1-Star Best Bet in this game at +3 at -120 odds or better – or I’d suggest 1-Star on the money line if your book has worse than -120 odds at +3. No opinion on the total.