Game Analysis
Lean – New York Giants (+3.5) over ARIZONA
Arizona’s offensive line was already without its best two players before losing Jared Veldheer for the season prior to last week’s game and the Cardinals managed just 3.6 yards per play and allowed 5 sacks against the Redskins. Drew Stanton has played slightly better than Blaine Gabbert this season but I don’t expect him to find much success given the current state of the offensive line especially considering Arizona’s ground game is nearly non-existent, averaging just 3.4 yards per rush (31st).
New York’s running game isn’t much better, gaining just 3.8 yards per rush (28th), and the Cardinals’ defensive personnel matches up particularly well to stop the Giants’ passing game. Sherling Shepard should be locked-down by Patrick Peterson, 4th in yards allowed per cover snap, and Arizona’s defense surrenders just 5.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends, a tough matchup for Evan Engram.
After all the adjustments our math favors Arizona by just 1 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Giants plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.4
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.4%
44.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.7%
17.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.4%
43.6%
-
NYPP
5.4
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.0
31.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.2%
21.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
44.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.6%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
64.4
67.9
-
Early Down Succ
46.3%
47.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.0%
44.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.9%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
28.4
-
Run Ratio
37.4%
47.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.2
30.3
-
Game Control
-3.0
3.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.1
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.0%
44.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.3%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.4%
36.7%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.9
26.6
-
RB YPR
3.1
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
26.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.5%
38.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
25.2%
38.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.1
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
42.5%
42.9%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
41.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.0%
38.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.4
-
Run Ratio
38.2%
42.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
28.5
-
Game Control
-2.2
2.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DAL |
3 – 19 L |
-9.1 |
48.8% / 48.7% |
7.3% / 2.6% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 6.7 |
23.1% / 54.8% |
7.7% / 19.4% |
2.8 / 4.2 |
54 / 70 |
46.2% / 50.9% |
42.6% / 51.4% |
27.8% / 37.0% |
4.3 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
24.1% / 44.3% |
16.0 / 29.4 |
2 |
DET |
10 – 24 L |
-7.5 |
37.8% / 33.3% |
13.5% / 12.5% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
38.9% / 43.8% |
27.8% / 34.4% |
3.4 / 4.3 |
55 / 56 |
41.5% / 37.5% |
38.2% / 39.3% |
30.0% / 42.4% |
4.9 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
32.7% / 57.1% |
24.3 / 37.4 |
3 |
@PHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
59.6% / 41.2% |
0.0% / 8.8% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 4.7 |
23.5% / 48.7% |
23.5% / 23.1% |
2.9 / 5.0 |
64 / 73 |
55.8% / 47.3% |
50.0% / 45.2% |
23.4% / 30.4% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
26.6% / 53.4% |
34.6 / 21.5 |
4 |
@TB |
23 – 25 L |
-5.2 |
49.0% / 48.7% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 8.3 |
35.7% / 42.3% |
28.6% / 19.2% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
77 / 65 |
44.1% / 56.3% |
44.2% / 46.2% |
27.4% / 57.3% |
4.9 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.4% / 40.0% |
27.7 / 29.9 |
5 |
LAC |
22 – 27 L |
2.4 |
34.1% / 36.4% |
12.2% / 0.0% |
2.8% / 2.3% |
4.5 / 5.9 |
72.0% / 31.3% |
12.0% / 21.9% |
6.1 / 3.9 |
66 / 76 |
54.0% / 34.0% |
48.5% / 34.2% |
46.3% / 36.2% |
5.1 / 5.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
37.9% / 42.1% |
28.2 / 29.0 |
6 |
@DEN |
23 – 10 W |
10.4 |
40.9% / 35.1% |
13.6% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.4 / 6.4 |
18.8% / 44.4% |
40.6% / 11.1% |
4.6 / 2.6 |
54 / 75 |
27.5% / 40.0% |
27.8% / 37.3% |
53.4% / 47.0% |
4.9 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
59.3% / 24.0% |
31.2 / 27.0 |
7 |
SEA |
7 – 24 L |
-1.0 |
22.5% / 50.0% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.3 / 8.0 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 21.9% |
2.7 / 3.3 |
57 / 72 |
31.8% / 53.6% |
28.1% / 50.0% |
14.1% / 43.9% |
3.1 / 5.9 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
29.8% / 44.4% |
22.8 / 33.8 |
9 |
LA |
17 – 51 L |
-19.5 |
42.5% / 54.5% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 14.1 |
59.3% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 40.0% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
67 / 62 |
51.0% / 44.7% |
49.3% / 43.5% |
38.1% / 71.3% |
4.8 / 7.6 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 64.5% |
27.0 / 40.8 |
10 |
@SF |
21 – 31 L |
-4.9 |
55.0% / 60.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.0% |
6.5 / 11.5 |
52.2% / 41.7% |
21.7% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
63 / 61 |
56.5% / 51.2% |
54.0% / 49.2% |
35.6% / 67.7% |
5.9 / 7.8 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
36.5% / 59.0% |
26.6 / 31.9 |
11 |
KC |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
38.9% / 42.9% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
2.8% / 7.3% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
40.0% / 51.7% |
22.9% / 10.3% |
3.2 / 4.6 |
71 / 71 |
45.1% / 49.2% |
39.4% / 46.5% |
22.0% / 41.6% |
4.5 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 40.8% |
30.2 / 21.5 |
12 |
@WAS |
10 – 20 L |
-0.8 |
29.0% / 35.1% |
12.9% / 16.2% |
3.7% / 3.2% |
2.8 / 5.4 |
32.0% / 38.2% |
20.0% / 23.5% |
3.4 / 3.6 |
56 / 71 |
36.8% / 44.0% |
30.4% / 36.6% |
22.2% / 47.7% |
3.1 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 47.9% |
21.8 / 32.4 |
13 |
@OAK |
17 – 24 L |
-4.2 |
40.5% / 48.6% |
8.1% / 2.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 7.6 |
50.0% / 43.3% |
20.8% / 26.7% |
2.7 / 4.0 |
61 / 67 |
46.8% / 48.9% |
44.3% / 46.3% |
40.8% / 41.5% |
4.3 / 6.0 |
3.3% / 1.5% |
39.3% / 44.8% |
28.0 / 28.7 |
14 |
DAL |
10 – 30 L |
-2.1 |
56.5% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 11.1 |
55.2% / 50.0% |
20.7% / 17.6% |
3.5 / 3.7 |
75 / 64 |
61.0% / 56.8% |
56.0% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 51.4% |
4.4 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 53.1% |
24.5 / 25.3 |
15 |
PHI |
29 – 34 L |
1.6 |
51.7% / 43.6% |
1.7% / 2.6% |
1.8% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.0 |
43.5% / 39.3% |
21.7% / 17.9% |
3.3 / 3.9 |
81 / 67 |
50.0% / 43.1% |
49.4% / 41.8% |
48.4% / 24.0% |
6.2 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.4% / 41.8% |
24.4 / 36.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DET |
23 – 35 L |
2.7 |
42.9% / 47.6% |
2.0% / 2.4% |
6.3% / 2.4% |
5.4 / 6.8 |
38.9% / 35.7% |
16.7% / 21.4% |
2.5 / 3.0 |
67 / 70 |
41.2% / 42.3% |
41.8% / 42.9% |
29.4% / 27.4% |
4.6 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
26.9% / 40.0% |
28.5 / 36.6 |
2 |
@IND |
16 – 13 W |
-6.3 |
40.0% / 41.5% |
10.0% / 9.8% |
2.8% / 2.7% |
7.7 / 4.6 |
34.6% / 34.5% |
11.5% / 24.1% |
3.2 / 2.6 |
66 / 70 |
39.6% / 36.5% |
37.9% / 38.6% |
63.6% / 16.5% |
5.9 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.4% / 41.4% |
29.6 / 24.5 |
3 |
DAL |
17 – 28 L |
0.5 |
38.9% / 42.1% |
11.1% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.2 |
33.3% / 33.3% |
33.3% / 33.3% |
2.3 / 3.7 |
75 / 46 |
35.7% / 42.9% |
37.3% / 37.0% |
51.5% / 62.8% |
4.4 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.0% / 58.7% |
21.6 / 29.4 |
4 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-1.4 |
49.1% / 30.8% |
10.5% / 5.8% |
2.0% / 2.0% |
5.6 / 4.0 |
39.1% / 37.0% |
30.4% / 25.9% |
2.3 / 3.5 |
80 / 79 |
51.6% / 33.9% |
46.3% / 32.9% |
17.9% / 27.9% |
4.6 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 34.2% |
27.9 / 22.3 |
5 |
@PHI |
7 – 34 L |
-16.7 |
41.3% / 48.4% |
4.3% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
6.0 / 9.6 |
21.4% / 28.6% |
35.7% / 22.9% |
2.2 / 3.5 |
60 / 66 |
37.2% / 33.3% |
36.7% / 37.9% |
20.2% / 52.3% |
5.1 / 6.4 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
23.3% / 53.0% |
19.3 / 34.1 |
6 |
TB |
38 – 33 W |
18.1 |
62.5% / 53.5% |
8.3% / 2.3% |
4.5% / 4.8% |
11.3 / 8.0 |
38.5% / 23.8% |
20.5% / 38.1% |
4.2 / 3.2 |
63 / 64 |
56.5% / 40.4% |
47.6% / 43.8% |
53.0% / 51.9% |
6.9 / 6.5 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
61.9% / 32.8% |
33.4 / 28.3 |
7 |
@LA |
0 – 33 L |
-16.0 |
28.6% / 42.1% |
8.6% / 2.6% |
6.3% / 2.7% |
4.8 / 6.0 |
25.0% / 48.8% |
41.7% / 14.6% |
2.1 / 4.8 |
47 / 79 |
27.3% / 39.7% |
27.7% / 45.6% |
35.8% / 29.1% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.5% / 51.9% |
26.0 / 33.8 |
9 |
@SF |
20 – 10 W |
7.3 |
40.0% / 32.1% |
0.0% / 8.9% |
3.3% / 2.0% |
6.7 / 4.8 |
34.8% / 58.8% |
13.0% / 17.6% |
3.7 / 3.7 |
76 / 73 |
38.9% / 40.7% |
36.8% / 38.4% |
45.8% / 30.7% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
1.3% / 1.4% |
60.5% / 23.3% |
34.4 / 23.5 |
10 |
SEA |
16 – 22 L |
-5.5 |
42.9% / 47.2% |
4.1% / 13.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 5.9 |
20.8% / 20.8% |
41.7% / 33.3% |
1.4 / 3.2 |
73 / 60 |
34.5% / 42.2% |
35.6% / 36.7% |
6.9% / 51.0% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
32.9% / 40.0% |
27.7 / 27.1 |
11 |
@HOU |
21 – 31 L |
-1.8 |
50.0% / 54.5% |
5.6% / 3.0% |
5.9% / 3.1% |
6.8 / 6.8 |
33.3% / 47.1% |
38.9% / 20.6% |
2.7 / 3.9 |
54 / 67 |
48.8% / 50.0% |
44.4% / 50.7% |
42.5% / 49.6% |
5.4 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
33.3% / 50.7% |
36.3 / 22.7 |
12 |
JAC |
27 – 24 W |
5.2 |
43.6% / 40.0% |
2.6% / 8.6% |
2.6% / 3.1% |
6.1 / 3.7 |
40.6% / 36.4% |
21.9% / 31.8% |
3.4 / 4.1 |
71 / 57 |
44.2% / 45.5% |
42.3% / 38.6% |
33.9% / 31.5% |
4.9 / 3.8 |
1.4% / 3.5% |
45.1% / 38.6% |
30.9 / 25.5 |
13 |
LA |
16 – 32 L |
-9.9 |
39.5% / 50.0% |
15.8% / 3.1% |
6.3% / 3.2% |
5.1 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
8.3% / 25.0% |
4.9 / 3.8 |
62 / 56 |
42.6% / 54.5% |
43.5% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 41.6% |
5.0 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 42.9% |
27.7 / 34.9 |
14 |
TEN |
12 – 7 W |
-1.6 |
44.1% / 35.3% |
23.5% / 8.8% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
3.7 / 4.1 |
38.7% / 50.0% |
22.6% / 36.4% |
4.5 / 3.0 |
65 / 56 |
51.1% / 45.2% |
41.5% / 41.1% |
47.9% / 25.0% |
4.0 / 3.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 39.3% |
35.6 / 24.5 |
15 |
@WAS |
15 – 20 L |
-5.6 |
24.4% / 51.9% |
11.1% / 3.7% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 6.9 |
61.8% / 33.3% |
14.7% / 28.6% |
4.1 / 1.5 |
79 / 48 |
45.6% / 54.1% |
40.5% / 43.8% |
44.8% / 37.9% |
3.6 / 4.6 |
1.3% / 2.1% |
43.0% / 43.8% |
33.0 / 31.8 |