Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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(**)/Strong Opinion – SEATTLE (+6/+3.5) over Philadelphia

Philadelphia has covered the spread in 8 consecutive games and nobody wants to go against a team that hot. But, the odds makers know that nobody wants to go against the Eagles so they opened this game with the spread about a point higher than it should be a Philly by 3 ½ points. The public was not deterred by the inflated number and they bet the Eagles up even higher. A few weeks ago I’m not sure that the Eagles would have been a 6 point favorite at home over Seattle and now they’re favored by that many points on the road. I’ll take advantage of that line value even if you think stepping in front of a speeding train is a bad idea. I know it’s not in this case.

Teams that have won and covered in 3 or more consecutive games are just 92-152-5 ATS when not getting more than 7 points on the road against a team with a winning record. The Eagles have been particularly dominating on both sides of the ball the last two weeks, winning by scores of 37-9 and 31-3. However, that makes it even more likely that they won’t live up to the enhanced expectations. Since 1980 there have only been 50 other occurrences of a team that scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in consecutive games. Those teams were just 22% ATS in their next game (11-39 ATS), including 4-21 ATS if favored by more than 3 points. Similarly, Philly also applies to a negative 14-56-2 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their two recent blowout wins. Seattle, meanwhile, applies to a 94-49-3 ATS late season home underdog situation and I’m sure they’re insulted that they’re an underdog at home (and I’m sure Pete Carroll has informed them of that fact).

Seattle has been a home underdog of 3 points or more 13 previous times under coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are 10-3 straight up and 11-2 ATS in those games with both of those spread losses being in Carroll’s first season when they had a losing record. Carroll’s team has gone 8-1 straight up and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games catching 3 points or more at home and a lot of those opponents were ‘hot’ teams too.

Last week, Seattle’s offense gained just 5.0 yards per play against a mediocre 49er’s defense, which continued their trend of playing worse in NFC West games, perhaps caused by divisional defense’s familiarity with Russell Wilson’s tendencies. Wilson has had a tougher time in division games throughout his career and that is particularly true in regards to his running. Wilson is averaging just 3.2 yards per rush against divisional opponents while gaining 8.5 yards per rush against all other competition.

This game should be a good match-up for Wilson, as the Eagles are surrendering 5.9 yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks (28th). Cam Newton, the only quarterback with more rushing yards than Wilson, ran for 71 yards against Philadelphia in week 6 and Wilson’s running could help Seattle continue their trend of performing better offensively against non-division foes. The Seahawks are averaging 6.2 yards per play against non-divisional opponents this season and Wilson is the type of quarterback needed to exploit a good Eagles defense.

The Eagles are the NFL’s only team averaging more than 30 points per game but they aren’t quite as good as their points per game would suggest (they’re 6^th in yards per play) and I expect Philly to run into difficulty playing in Seattle, even without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman in the lineup. While Seattle’s secondary has been weakened by injuries to those defensive backs, the Seahawks’ rush defense has improved greatly in recent weeks, ranking 2nd so far in the second half of the season after ranking 30th against the run through the first 8 games. Seattle still has a good defense overall and this venue is one of the toughest in the NFL for visiting teams to win – as the Seahawks impressive straight up record as a 3-point home dog or more would attest. I think the line on this game should be no higher than 3 points (I get 2.5, actually, after adjusting for injuries) and I’ll take advantage of the public’s frenzy to be on the Eagles even at an inflated number (which is not even more inflated). I’ll take Seattle in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more and for 1-Star down to +4 points.

Note: I released Seattle as a Best Bet at +6 earlier in the week and the syndicates bet it down to +3.5 this morning. I’d consider Seattle a Strong Opinion at +3.5.

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Seahawks

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.8 41.7
Succ Pass Plays 46.1% 40.8%
Sack Rate 6.3% 7.1%
Int Rate 1.4% 3.8%
Deep Pass Rate 21.8% 14.6%
Big Pass Yards 38.8% 29.0%
NYPP 6.8 5.4

Rush

Rush Plays 33.3 19.1
RB YPR 4.1 2.8
Stuff Rate 23.2% 33.3%
Succ Rush Plays 41.8% 37.5%
Big Rush Yards 55.2% 54.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.3

Game

All Snaps 68.1 60.8
Early Down Succ 45.1% 43.7%
Succ Rate 43.7% 40.2%
Big Yards Rate 47.1% 33.2%
Yards Per Play 5.6 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 26.5
Run Ratio 48.9% 31.3%
Starting Field Pos 30.5 27.9
Game Control 8.6 -8.6

Points 31.9 17.4

SEA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.5 37.9
Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 39.9%
Sack Rate 6.3% 7.0%
Int Rate 2.3% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 24.7% 23.4%
Big Pass Yards 42.6% 36.1%
NYPP 6.6 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 27.5 26.1
RB YPR 2.9 3.5
Stuff Rate 27.8% 25.7%
Succ Rush Plays 38.9% 41.5%
Big Rush Yards 49.2% 35.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.8

Game

All Snaps 67.1 64.0
Early Down Succ 46.0% 41.8%
Succ Rate 43.7% 40.2%
Big Yards Rate 45.3% 39.3%
Yards Per Play 5.4 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 27.6
Run Ratio 40.9% 40.8%
Starting Field Pos 28.9 26.9
Game Control 0.2 -0.2

Points 24.2 19.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@WAS	30 – 17 W	5.1	51.2% / 38.6%	4.9% / 9.1%	2.6% / 2.5%	7.3 / 4.5	36.0% / 58.8%	28.0% / 23.5%	2.4 / 3.8	66 / 61	44.0% / 49.0%	45.5% / 44.3%	37.8% / 38.3%	5.4 / 4.3	1.5% / 4.9%	37.9% / 27.9%	31.8 / 26.1
2	@KC	20 – 27 L	-2.0	44.2% / 50.0%	11.5% / 12.5%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.3	58.8% / 47.4%	17.6% / 26.3%	6.3 / 5.9	69 / 51	46.3% / 51.3%	47.8% / 49.0%	42.4% / 45.3%	5.9 / 6.7	1.4% / 0.0%	24.6% / 37.3%	26.1 / 35.6
3	NYG	27 – 24 W	4.0	41.2% / 59.6%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	4.7 / 7.8	48.7% / 23.5%	23.1% / 23.5%	5.0 / 2.9	73 / 64	47.3% / 55.8%	45.2% / 50.0%	30.4% / 23.4%	4.9 / 6.5	1.4% / 0.0%	53.4% / 26.6%	21.5 / 34.6
4	@LAC	26 – 24 W	6.2	46.9% / 42.5%	3.1% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 8.6	47.7% / 38.5%	20.5% / 46.2%	4.9 / 4.5	76 / 53	47.3% / 39.5%	47.4% / 41.5%	56.1% / 68.3%	6.0 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.9%	57.9% / 24.5%	22.1 / 22.2
5	ARI	34 – 7 W	16.7	48.4% / 41.3%	3.2% / 4.3%	3.3% / 0.0%	9.6 / 6.0	28.6% / 21.4%	22.9% / 35.7%	3.5 / 2.2	66 / 60	33.3% / 37.2%	37.9% / 36.7%	52.3% / 20.2%	6.4 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.7%	53.0% / 23.3%	34.1 / 19.3
6	@CAR	28 – 23 W	3.0	39.4% / 37.0%	9.1% / 3.7%	0.0% / 5.8%	6.3 / 4.2	37.9% / 48.0%	27.6% / 40.0%	3.6 / 3.2	62 / 79	41.9% / 45.0%	38.7% / 40.5%	54.2% / 20.7%	5.0 / 3.9	1.6% / 0.0%	46.8% / 31.6%	32.9 / 30.0
7	WAS	34 – 24 W	4.7	53.6% / 56.8%	10.7% / 9.1%	4.0% / 2.5%	8.7 / 6.1	29.4% / 47.4%	23.5% / 15.8%	3.8 / 4.0	62 / 63	39.6% / 62.5%	40.3% / 54.0%	63.4% / 46.4%	6.0 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	54.8% / 30.2%	32.5 / 27.7
8	SF	33 – 10 W	11.9	42.9% / 32.5%	8.6% / 10.0%	3.1% / 5.6%	5.5 / 3.6	39.4% / 41.7%	27.3% / 41.7%	3.5 / 3.9	68 / 64	46.9% / 40.8%	41.2% / 35.9%	44.4% / 38.2%	4.5 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	48.5% / 37.5%	29.0 / 28.5
9	DEN	51 – 23 W	19.2	50.0% / 36.6%	6.7% / 7.3%	0.0% / 5.3%	7.4 / 4.7	47.4% / 36.8%	26.3% / 31.6%	5.2 / 1.8	68 / 60	53.1% / 39.1%	48.5% / 36.7%	52.9% / 27.4%	6.2 / 3.8	1.5% / 0.0%	55.9% / 31.7%	37.7 / 26.1
11	@DAL	37 – 9 W	8.3	44.4% / 30.6%	0.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 9.4%	6.2 / 3.1	44.4% / 42.9%	16.7% / 28.6%	6.1 / 4.0	63 / 64	51.2% / 42.6%	44.4% / 35.9%	52.1% / 28.8%	6.1 / 3.5	0.0% / 1.6%	57.1% / 43.8%	27.3 / 28.9
12	CHI	31 – 3 W	17.1	45.0% / 22.9%	2.5% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	6.1 / 3.8	41.7% / 6.7%	22.2% / 53.3%	5.0 / 0.5	76 / 50	45.1% / 18.2%	43.4% / 18.0%	32.6% / 7.8%	5.6 / 2.8	3.9% / 0.0%	47.4% / 30.0%	40.5 / 27.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@GB	9 – 17 L	-2.5	40.0% / 50.0%	10.0% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.5 / 6.2	38.9% / 35.5%	50.0% / 19.4%	5.0 / 2.8	48 / 77	44.4% / 44.6%	39.6% / 44.2%	58.7% / 37.8%	4.7 / 4.8	2.1% / 0.0%	37.5% / 40.3%	27.5 / 25.9
2	SF	12 – 9 W	2.0	33.3% / 20.7%	7.1% / 6.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	4.3 / 3.1	37.2% / 52.6%	20.9% / 21.1%	3.1 / 8.4	85 / 48	37.5% / 38.9%	35.3% / 33.3%	23.7% / 49.2%	3.7 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.6% / 39.6%	23.9 / 24.5
3	@TEN	27 – 33 L	-4.9	50.0% / 51.6%	2.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 7.3	40.9% / 44.4%	31.8% / 22.2%	3.1 / 5.4	72 / 67	51.8% / 54.9%	47.2% / 47.8%	38.8% / 44.9%	6.0 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	30.6% / 53.7%	23.3 / 29.6
4	IND	46 – 18 W	7.0	65.5% / 37.5%	10.3% / 9.4%	7.7% / 3.4%	9.8 / 4.3	42.4% / 52.0%	24.2% / 8.0%	5.9 / 3.9	62 / 57	47.8% / 44.2%	53.2% / 43.9%	67.7% / 30.0%	7.7 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.8%	53.2% / 43.9%	20.2 / 28.3
5	@LA	16 – 10 W	-0.8	45.0% / 35.4%	7.5% / 4.2%	5.4% / 4.3%	4.5 / 5.7	19.2% / 40.9%	23.1% / 45.5%	2.4 / 4.5	66 / 70	31.3% / 33.3%	34.8% / 37.1%	8.7% / 44.3%	3.7 / 5.4	0.0% / 4.3%	39.4% / 31.4%	35.2 / 29.2
7	@NYG	24 – 7 W	1.0	50.0% / 22.5%	2.5% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 3.3	50.0% / 41.2%	21.9% / 17.6%	3.3 / 2.7	72 / 57	53.6% / 31.8%	50.0% / 28.1%	43.9% / 14.1%	5.9 / 3.1	1.4% / 1.8%	44.4% / 29.8%	33.8 / 22.8
8	HOU	41 – 38 W	-1.4	51.2% / 45.7%	4.7% / 14.3%	2.4% / 10.0%	10.4 / 10.5	17.4% / 50.0%	39.1% / 17.6%	1.5 / 4.2	66 / 69	44.0% / 51.7%	39.4% / 47.8%	62.4% / 72.7%	7.3 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	34.8% / 49.3%	27.4 / 22.4
9	WAS	14 – 17 L	-2.3	43.5% / 40.5%	4.3% / 16.2%	4.5% / 0.0%	6.3 / 5.2	57.1% / 39.1%	14.3% / 34.8%	5.3 / 2.2	74 / 60	51.7% / 42.6%	48.6% / 40.0%	48.5% / 51.6%	5.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.7%	37.8% / 38.3%	30.7 / 27.8
10	@ARI	22 – 16 W	5.5	47.2% / 42.9%	13.9% / 4.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 5.2	20.8% / 20.8%	33.3% / 41.7%	3.2 / 1.4	60 / 73	42.2% / 34.5%	36.7% / 35.6%	51.0% / 6.9%	4.8 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.4%	40.0% / 32.9%	27.1 / 27.7
11	ATL	31 – 34 L	-8.5	48.9% / 53.6%	6.7% / 3.6%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.0 / 6.8	65.2% / 34.4%	21.7% / 21.9%	5.9 / 2.8	68 / 60	57.4% / 40.5%	54.4% / 43.3%	46.7% / 37.7%	5.3 / 4.7	1.5% / 1.7%	33.8% / 53.3%	36.4 / 33.0
12	@SF	24 – 13 W	7.2	44.1% / 38.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	2.9% / 2.6%	6.7 / 4.7	38.7% / 45.8%	25.8% / 33.3%	2.9 / 3.5	65 / 66	44.0% / 42.9%	41.5% / 40.9%	48.6% / 43.6%	4.9 / 4.2	0.0% / 0.0%	47.7% / 36.4%	32.2 / 25.4

Philadelphia Eagles @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Dec 3

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis