Game Analysis
Lean – DENVER (+7.5) over New England
Denver has been plagued by an average turnover margin of -1.5 per game, this year’s Browns are the only other team in the last 5 seasons that low and I expect the Broncos to improve in the all-important turnover margin component going forward. Despite all their problems at quarterback, the Broncos offense still ranks 22nd in yards per play and their compensated yards per play differential is still positive. Denver is still a decent team if they stop turning the ball over and that struggling Broncos’ offense could find some success this week against a New England defense that is surrendering 6.7 yppl, which is by far the worst in the league. Brock Osweiler did not look good against the Eagles and his career yards per pass play is down to just 5.4 yppp but I expect Denver to focus on their ground game against a Patriots defense surrendering a league worst 5.1 ypr.
The Patriots are somehow 6-2 with a -0.7 net yppl, which speaks to how good an in-game coach Bill Belichick is. New England has relied on Tom Brady all season, as their passing offense ranks 2nd in my numbers, and while the Broncos ‘No Fly Zone’ passing defense hasn’t enjoyed as much success as in years past, they still rank 12th in yards per pass play allowed at 5.7 yppp. Denver is struggling but New England’s defense is still an issue and the Broncos are good enough defensively to keep the Pats’ attack in check. My ratings see some value with the Broncos at +7 or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.3
38.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.9%
53.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
0.6%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.0%
24.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.4%
40.5%
-
NYPP
7.4
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
24.9
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
17.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.7%
51.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
22.3%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
69.5
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
53.2%
57.5%
-
Succ Rate
51.0%
52.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.0%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.1
27.0
-
Run Ratio
40.4%
39.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
24.7
-
Game Control
4.4
-4.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.5
33.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.6%
42.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
4.0%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.8%
40.1%
-
NYPP
5.4
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
26.4
-
RB YPR
3.8
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
20.3%
36.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.9%
28.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.9%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
67.3
59.9
-
Early Down Succ
42.9%
40.1%
-
Succ Rate
41.0%
35.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.0%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
28.7
-
Run Ratio
41.1%
43.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
34.0
-
Game Control
-3.6
3.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% /
60.5% |
7.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
3.5 /
5.7 |
75 /
71 |
46.4% /
63.5% |
41.3% /
52.1% |
54.8% /
53.7% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.0% /
46.5% |
27.8 /
25.5 |
| 2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% /
51.1% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.6 /
7.7 |
51.6% /
47.1% |
22.6% /
11.8% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
72 /
62 |
58.3% /
54.2% |
56.9% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
48.3% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.4% |
27.5 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% /
48.6% |
12.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.4 /
8.3 |
45.0% /
56.3% |
30.0% /
15.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
60 /
67 |
46.8% /
54.7% |
46.7% /
52.2% |
52.3% /
38.8% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.8% |
28.8 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% /
61.3% |
6.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
73.7% /
51.7% |
21.1% /
20.7% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
67 /
60 |
66.7% /
54.9% |
64.2% /
56.7% |
22.0% /
48.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.4% /
48.3% |
26.1 /
26.7 |
| 5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% /
48.9% |
7.0% /
4.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
17.4% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
67 |
53.7% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
50.7% |
24.6% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
29.9% |
27.7 /
27.4 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
7.7% /
24.0% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
75 |
49.0% /
50.9% |
48.4% /
49.3% |
29.5% /
46.0% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
40.6% /
33.3% |
28.7 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% /
58.8% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
56.4% /
54.5% |
12.8% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
5.5 |
70 /
56 |
57.7% /
65.9% |
52.9% /
57.1% |
38.4% /
26.8% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
39.3% |
28.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
6.0% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
43.8% /
66.7% |
28.1% /
19.0% |
3.0 /
7.5 |
82 /
51 |
46.8% /
60.0% |
47.6% /
54.9% |
21.3% /
38.7% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
41.2% |
30.5 /
20.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LAC |
24 – 21 W |
6.6 |
50.0% /
47.1% |
12.5% /
2.9% |
3.6% /
3.0% |
5.7 /
5.4 |
40.5% /
27.3% |
18.9% /
31.8% |
3.8 /
2.9 |
69 /
56 |
44.2% /
42.9% |
44.9% /
39.3% |
47.8% /
27.7% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
53.6% /
39.3% |
31.8 /
31.6 |
| 2 |
DAL |
42 – 17 W |
11.9 |
64.7% /
42.3% |
5.9% /
3.8% |
3.1% /
4.0% |
5.9 /
4.4 |
52.5% /
28.6% |
17.5% /
42.9% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
74 /
66 |
59.6% /
44.7% |
58.1% /
39.4% |
30.7% /
14.6% |
5.1 /
4.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
54.1% /
21.2% |
26.9 /
37.6 |
| 3 |
@BUF |
16 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
37.2% /
50.0% |
7.0% /
13.3% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.6 |
39.1% /
27.0% |
26.1% /
27.0% |
4.8 /
2.1 |
66 /
67 |
38.0% /
42.2% |
37.9% /
37.3% |
59.3% /
44.4% |
5.5 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
55.2% |
23.7 /
39.8 |
| 4 |
OAK |
16 – 10 W |
6.7 |
33.3% /
36.8% |
13.3% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.2 /
6.1 |
31.4% /
33.3% |
22.9% /
46.7% |
4.2 /
1.6 |
65 /
53 |
36.4% /
44.7% |
32.3% /
35.8% |
39.5% /
52.8% |
4.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.8% /
28.3% |
28.8 /
24.7 |
| 6 |
NYG |
10 – 23 L |
-10.4 |
35.1% /
40.9% |
7.0% /
13.6% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
5.4 |
44.4% /
18.8% |
11.1% /
40.6% |
2.6 /
4.6 |
75 /
54 |
40.0% /
27.5% |
37.3% /
27.8% |
47.0% /
53.4% |
5.5 /
4.9 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
24.0% /
59.3% |
27.0 /
31.2 |
| 7 |
@LAC |
0 – 21 L |
-11.1 |
35.0% /
34.5% |
12.5% /
10.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.6 |
21.1% /
19.2% |
21.1% /
42.3% |
3.6 /
3.1 |
59 /
55 |
32.6% /
28.6% |
30.5% /
27.3% |
13.5% /
44.6% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
32.2% /
47.3% |
23.2 /
29.8 |
| 8 |
@KC |
19 – 29 L |
-11.9 |
41.0% /
36.4% |
7.7% /
3.0% |
8.3% /
3.1% |
4.8 /
6.0 |
61.3% /
25.9% |
12.9% /
37.0% |
5.7 /
3.0 |
70 /
60 |
53.6% /
37.0% |
50.0% /
31.7% |
39.0% /
52.0% |
5.2 /
4.6 |
2.9% /
1.7% |
44.3% /
45.0% |
23.9 /
40.0 |
| 9 |
@PHI |
23 – 51 L |
-19.2 |
36.6% /
50.0% |
7.3% /
6.7% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.4 |
36.8% /
47.4% |
31.6% /
26.3% |
1.8 /
5.2 |
60 /
68 |
39.1% /
53.1% |
36.7% /
48.5% |
27.4% /
52.9% |
3.8 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
31.7% /
55.9% |
26.1 /
37.7 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Denver Broncos