Game Analysis
Lean – Cincinnati (+4.5) over TENNESSEE
The Titans will be the third top-10 defense in yards per play allowed that the Bengals have faced in the last four weeks and Cincinnati did not fare well is the first two games against the Steelers and Jaguars, gaining 3.5 and 4.0 yppl respectively. The Bengals offensive line has been their biggest weakness this year, as that unit has allowed a 9% sack rate (29th). The run blocking has been even worse as Cincinnati gains just 3.1 ypr, which is last in the league. I expect the Bengals offense to struggle again in this game.
Tennessee’s offense will also have a tough matchup against a Cincinnati defense ranked 3rd in yppl allowed. The Bengals are allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play (4th) and I expect the Titans to focus on their ground game. Tennessee has struggled running the ball lately – just 2.8 ypr in their last two games – but the Titans still rank 8th in yards per rush for the season. It could be a long day for the Titans offense if they can’t return to their early-season rushing success.
I think the line on this game is a bit high and Cincinnati applies to a 91-27-1 ATS contrary situation, so I will lean with the Bengals to put an end to their 3 game spread losing streak.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.5
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.0%
39.6%
-
Sack Rate
9.3%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
15.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.4%
39.3%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
31.3
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
26.0%
22.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
31.7%
46.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.0%
28.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.0
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
57.3
67.0
-
Early Down Succ
39.3%
43.6%
-
Succ Rate
36.5%
42.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.0%
36.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
28.9
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
46.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
28.1
-
Game Control
-0.1
0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.6
39.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
46.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
3.9%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.5%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.6%
20.5%
-
NYPP
6.2
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
21.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.4%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
25.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
60.6
67.1
-
Early Down Succ
49.2%
48.7%
-
Succ Rate
44.7%
46.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.1%
22.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
27.6
-
Run Ratio
45.8%
41.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
27.2
-
Game Control
-1.1
1.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% /
27.8% |
13.9% /
5.6% |
12.9% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
6.2 |
36.4% /
45.2% |
22.7% /
19.0% |
3.5 /
3.7 |
58 /
60 |
34.1% /
39.1% |
32.8% /
40.0% |
45.7% /
32.1% |
3.8 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
70.0% |
30.8 /
32.2 |
| 2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% /
40.7% |
7.9% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
54.2% /
51.4% |
16.7% /
31.4% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
62 /
62 |
44.4% /
53.2% |
40.3% /
46.8% |
41.0% /
39.1% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
56.5% |
31.2 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
@GB |
24 – 27 L |
6.6 |
53.3% /
43.8% |
10.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.4 /
5.8 |
32.3% /
47.1% |
29.0% /
29.4% |
3.6 /
3.8 |
61 /
65 |
46.8% /
44.0% |
42.6% /
44.6% |
31.8% /
58.1% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
26.2% |
26.5 /
25.8 |
| 4 |
@CLE |
31 – 7 W |
16.5 |
60.6% /
29.5% |
9.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
3.9 |
40.0% /
41.2% |
26.7% /
35.3% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
63 /
61 |
50.0% /
32.6% |
50.8% /
32.8% |
43.4% /
33.0% |
5.6 /
3.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
27.9% |
28.3 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
BUF |
20 – 16 W |
3.1 |
43.2% /
32.6% |
2.7% /
14.0% |
5.6% /
2.7% |
8.7 /
3.2 |
22.6% /
45.8% |
22.6% /
20.8% |
2.2 /
3.4 |
68 /
67 |
37.0% /
38.8% |
33.8% /
37.3% |
47.7% /
22.2% |
5.8 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
35.8% |
25.6 /
34.8 |
| 7 |
@PIT |
14 – 29 L |
-7.2 |
35.3% /
48.0% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
10.7 |
22.2% /
37.0% |
38.9% /
17.4% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
52 /
71 |
32.4% /
49.1% |
30.8% /
40.8% |
35.6% /
56.5% |
3.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
64.8% |
29.1 /
29.4 |
| 8 |
IND |
24 – 23 W |
-0.5 |
43.8% /
39.5% |
9.4% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
30.4% /
60.7% |
30.4% /
10.7% |
2.6 /
4.1 |
55 /
71 |
40.0% /
48.1% |
38.2% /
47.9% |
46.0% /
18.1% |
5.1 /
4.7 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
39.4% |
32.7 /
31.4 |
| 9 |
@JAC |
7 – 23 L |
-7.2 |
30.0% /
55.3% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
15.8% /
41.5% |
21.1% /
12.2% |
1.6 /
3.7 |
39 /
79 |
29.6% /
44.1% |
23.1% /
48.1% |
52.7% /
32.8% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
48.7% /
51.9% |
20.2 /
21.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% /
55.9% |
2.4% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
57.1% |
47.6% /
53.1% |
33.1% /
26.7% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.9% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
3.6% /
5.6% |
3.7% /
5.9% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
68.4% /
64.0% |
10.5% /
12.0% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
66 /
61 |
64.0% /
52.1% |
57.6% /
50.8% |
41.6% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.6% /
41.0% |
39.9 /
23.4 |
| 3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
44.4% /
40.9% |
22.2% /
31.8% |
5.4 /
3.1 |
67 /
72 |
54.9% /
51.8% |
47.8% /
47.2% |
44.9% /
38.8% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
30.6% |
29.6 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% /
58.3% |
9.1% /
5.6% |
20.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
15.0% /
14.3% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
42 /
78 |
43.8% /
53.8% |
38.1% /
53.8% |
52.6% /
28.5% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.9 /
38.0 |
| 5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% /
25.0% |
15.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.1 /
2.8 |
30.0% /
43.8% |
45.0% /
28.1% |
3.5 /
3.2 |
58 /
60 |
40.0% /
37.2% |
34.5% /
35.0% |
19.1% /
6.1% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
3.4% /
1.7% |
34.5% /
53.3% |
25.1 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% /
51.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.7 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
57 |
51.9% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
47.4% |
42.2% /
22.6% |
7.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
27.4 /
26.5 |
| 7 |
@CLE |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
41.7% /
39.0% |
5.6% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
31.3% /
25.9% |
46.9% /
22.2% |
2.5 /
2.5 |
68 /
68 |
38.0% /
37.3% |
36.8% /
33.8% |
14.5% /
23.9% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
39.7% |
33.6 /
25.1 |
| 9 |
BAL |
23 – 20 W |
6.3 |
51.6% /
49.1% |
9.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
3.8% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
36.4% /
40.9% |
22.7% /
22.7% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
53 /
77 |
53.8% /
47.4% |
45.3% /
46.8% |
49.0% /
8.2% |
4.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
28.6% |
34.6 /
24.8 |
Cincinnati Bengals
@ 
Tennessee Titans