Game Analysis
Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+2) over Arizona
The 49ers traded for Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but it will be the Cardinals with a new man under center on Sunday. My quarterback model projects Drew Stanton to be about 3.5 points worse per game than Carson Palmer and he certainly didn’t look good in limited action last week gaining just 3.8 yppp. Arizona’s passing offense ranks 23rd in my metrics this season and should be even worse sith Stanton pulling the trigger.
This may be CJ Beathard’s last chance as he certainly hasn’t played well to this point. Beathard is gaining 4.6 yppp and the Niners have never taken a lead with him under center. Last season, Garoppolo threw for 7.4 yppp and it’s only a matter of time before he grasps enough of Kyle Shanahan’s offense to take over.
Beathard is certainly worse than Hoyer was but Arizona’s decline in quarterback production over their season numbers is more drastic. Our model gives San Francisco a good chance to get their first win of the season and I’ll lean with the Niners as long as they’re an underdog.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.6
38.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.3%
43.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.8%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.8%
17.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.0%
34.5%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.9
29.7
-
RB YPR
2.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
27.1%
25.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.0%
34.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
23.4%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
2.7
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
65.4
67.7
-
Early Down Succ
41.3%
38.4%
-
Succ Rate
39.3%
39.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.8%
38.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.8
28.8
-
Run Ratio
33.4%
44.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.6
29.9
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.8
36.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.0%
49.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.1%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.8%
19.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.5%
39.7%
-
NYPP
4.9
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.8
36.1
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
28.3%
24.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.7%
43.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.9%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
65.5
72.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.1%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
40.3%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.0%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.4
28.9
-
Run Ratio
34.7%
50.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
30.1
-
Game Control
-8.0
8.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
23 – 35 L |
2.7 |
42.9% /
47.6% |
2.0% /
2.4% |
6.3% /
2.4% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
38.9% /
35.7% |
16.7% /
21.4% |
2.5 /
3.0 |
67 /
70 |
41.2% /
42.3% |
41.8% /
42.9% |
29.4% /
27.4% |
4.6 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
26.9% /
40.0% |
28.5 /
36.6 |
| 2 |
@IND |
16 – 13 W |
-6.3 |
40.0% /
41.5% |
10.0% /
9.8% |
2.8% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
4.6 |
34.6% /
34.5% |
11.5% /
24.1% |
3.2 /
2.6 |
66 /
70 |
39.6% /
36.5% |
37.9% /
38.6% |
63.6% /
16.5% |
5.9 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
41.4% |
29.6 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
DAL |
17 – 28 L |
0.5 |
38.9% /
42.1% |
11.1% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
9.2 |
33.3% /
33.3% |
33.3% /
33.3% |
2.3 /
3.7 |
75 /
46 |
35.7% /
42.9% |
37.3% /
37.0% |
51.5% /
62.8% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.0% /
58.7% |
21.6 /
29.4 |
| 4 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-1.4 |
49.1% /
30.8% |
10.5% /
5.8% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
5.6 /
4.0 |
39.1% /
37.0% |
30.4% /
25.9% |
2.3 /
3.5 |
80 /
79 |
51.6% /
33.9% |
46.3% /
32.9% |
17.9% /
27.9% |
4.6 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
34.2% |
27.9 /
22.3 |
| 5 |
@PHI |
7 – 34 L |
-16.7 |
41.3% /
48.4% |
4.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
6.0 /
9.6 |
21.4% /
28.6% |
35.7% /
22.9% |
2.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
66 |
37.2% /
33.3% |
36.7% /
37.9% |
20.2% /
52.3% |
5.1 /
6.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
23.3% /
53.0% |
19.3 /
34.1 |
| 6 |
TB |
38 – 33 W |
18.1 |
62.5% /
53.5% |
8.3% /
2.3% |
4.5% /
4.8% |
11.3 /
8.0 |
38.5% /
23.8% |
20.5% /
38.1% |
4.2 /
3.2 |
63 /
64 |
56.5% /
40.4% |
47.6% /
43.8% |
53.0% /
51.9% |
6.9 /
6.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
61.9% /
32.8% |
33.4 /
28.3 |
| 7 |
@LA |
0 – 33 L |
-16.0 |
28.6% /
42.1% |
8.6% /
2.6% |
6.3% /
2.7% |
4.8 /
6.0 |
25.0% /
48.8% |
41.7% /
14.6% |
2.1 /
4.8 |
47 /
79 |
27.3% /
39.7% |
27.7% /
45.6% |
35.8% /
29.1% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.5% /
51.9% |
26.0 /
33.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
| 7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% /
51.9% |
11.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
8.7 |
59.1% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
72 |
48.0% /
66.7% |
46.2% /
62.5% |
40.7% /
57.0% |
4.5 /
7.0 |
4.6% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.5% |
23.0 /
34.1 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% /
42.9% |
10.0% /
8.6% |
5.6% /
3.1% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
41.7% /
39.4% |
41.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
40.8% /
46.9% |
35.9% /
41.2% |
38.2% /
44.4% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
48.5% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
Arizona Cardinals
@ 
San Francisco 49ers