Game Analysis
CAROLINA (-1) vs Atlanta
Atlanta’s top 5 offense will square off against Carolina’s top 5 defense on Sunday. The Falcons offense is gaining 6.2 yppl (2nd) and, while Matt Ryan has dropped off a bit from his career year last season, they actually have a better rushing attack this year – averaging 4.8 yards per rush (4th) compared to last year’s 4.5 yards per rush. However, it could be difficult this week against a Panthers rush defense ranked third in my metrics. This will be the 4th top-5 ranked offense, based on yards per play,that Carolina’s defense has faced this season. The Panthers allowed the Saints 6.4 yppl, but held the Patriots and Buccaneers to 5.6 and 4.4 yppl respectively.
On the other side of the ball, Carolina’s offense will go against an Atlanta defense that has benefitted from an easy schedule. The Falcons are holding opponents to 5.0 yppl but have only faced one above average offense so far (New England) and actually rate a bit below average in compensated yppl. Atlanta will face another bad offensive team today, as Carolina is 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively and has been getting worse – averaging just 4.0 yppl in their last 3 games.
Atlanta applies to a negative 46-113-7 ATS situation today but our model favors the Falcons by 2 points in this game. I’d lean with Carolina if the Panthers became an underdog but otherwise I have no opinion.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.7
38.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.1%
44.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
0.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.8%
16.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.3%
28.5%
-
NYPP
7.3
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.1
26.4
-
RB YPR
4.6
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
24.6%
23.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.7%
44.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.3%
32.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
60.9
64.4
-
Early Down Succ
52.6%
46.8%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
44.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.8%
31.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
29.0
-
Run Ratio
42.9%
41.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
23.9
28.2
-
Game Control
2.1
-2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.4
33.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.7%
41.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
12.2%
-
Int Rate
3.9%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.7%
20.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.5%
40.1%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.4
22.6
-
RB YPR
2.8
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.0%
28.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.0%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.8
56.5
-
Early Down Succ
45.4%
47.4%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
42.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
28.1
-
Run Ratio
45.8%
41.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
28.7
-
Game Control
1.1
-1.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
31.8% |
6.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
4.0 |
32.0% /
52.6% |
24.0% /
15.8% |
2.6 /
6.6 |
57 /
63 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
42.1% /
38.1% |
49.7% /
31.2% |
6.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
30.2% |
18.3 /
28.1 |
| 2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% /
50.9% |
9.7% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
55.6% /
56.3% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
58 /
69 |
55.3% /
53.8% |
53.4% /
52.2% |
50.0% /
24.2% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
23.2% |
26.7 /
22.1 |
| 3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% /
40.4% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
5.4 |
48.3% /
31.6% |
13.8% /
26.3% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
66 /
66 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
48.5% /
37.9% |
34.7% /
31.8% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
28.8% |
27.8 /
29.7 |
| 4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% /
43.5% |
2.3% /
13.0% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
58.6% /
44.7% |
27.6% /
23.7% |
5.1 /
3.1 |
72 /
61 |
56.1% /
47.7% |
52.8% /
44.3% |
30.9% /
27.6% |
5.4 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
62.3% |
25.9 /
21.9 |
| 6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
47.4% /
46.9% |
42.1% /
25.0% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
55 /
65 |
48.8% /
47.9% |
49.1% /
46.2% |
40.1% /
23.8% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
49.2% |
20.7 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% /
48.4% |
2.9% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.8 |
54.5% /
56.4% |
18.2% /
12.8% |
5.5 /
4.2 |
56 /
70 |
65.9% /
57.7% |
57.1% /
52.9% |
26.8% /
38.4% |
6.1 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
55.7% |
21.9 /
28.8 |
| 8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
3.3% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.7 |
37.5% /
22.7% |
28.1% /
36.4% |
4.4 /
2.0 |
62 /
57 |
45.8% /
41.5% |
43.5% /
40.4% |
53.1% /
40.1% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
3.2% /
1.8% |
51.6% /
38.6% |
26.1 /
36.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% /
46.2% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
4.2% /
2.9% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
39.0% /
26.7% |
14.6% /
26.7% |
2.9 /
3.4 |
65 /
54 |
42.6% /
48.7% |
41.5% /
40.7% |
29.7% /
33.6% |
4.5 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
63.1% /
27.8% |
33.7 /
30.1 |
| 2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% /
35.7% |
15.8% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
34.5% /
21.7% |
37.9% /
39.1% |
2.7 /
3.0 |
67 /
51 |
44.9% /
30.6% |
43.3% /
29.4% |
39.1% /
20.5% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
45.1% |
31.3 /
21.1 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% /
46.7% |
10.8% /
3.3% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.1 |
77.3% /
55.6% |
4.5% /
25.9% |
6.0 /
5.5 |
59 /
57 |
57.8% /
51.1% |
55.9% /
50.9% |
40.3% /
55.5% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
47.4% |
25.2 /
37.8 |
| 4 |
@NE |
33 – 30 W |
1.9 |
61.3% /
60.4% |
6.5% /
6.3% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
6.1 |
51.7% /
73.7% |
20.7% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
60 /
67 |
54.9% /
66.7% |
56.7% /
64.2% |
48.0% /
22.0% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
48.3% /
28.4% |
26.7 /
26.1 |
| 5 |
@DET |
27 – 24 W |
6.3 |
50.0% /
51.2% |
8.3% /
14.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
4.7 |
17.6% /
40.0% |
32.4% /
40.0% |
0.9 /
3.3 |
70 /
56 |
37.0% /
52.4% |
34.3% /
48.2% |
53.7% /
53.7% |
5.2 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
26.8% |
31.7 /
29.8 |
| 6 |
PHI |
23 – 28 L |
-3.0 |
37.0% /
39.4% |
3.7% /
9.1% |
5.8% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.3 |
48.0% /
37.9% |
40.0% /
27.6% |
3.2 /
3.6 |
79 /
62 |
45.0% /
41.9% |
40.5% /
38.7% |
20.7% /
54.2% |
3.9 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
31.6% /
46.8% |
30.0 /
32.9 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
3 – 17 L |
-11.4 |
41.0% /
18.2% |
12.8% /
36.4% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.7 |
33.3% /
32.3% |
33.3% /
16.1% |
3.6 /
2.3 |
69 /
42 |
37.7% /
41.7% |
37.7% /
28.6% |
49.8% /
67.3% |
4.2 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
73.8% |
24.6 /
28.7 |
| 8 |
@TB |
17 – 3 W |
7.2 |
37.5% /
36.6% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
3.1% /
5.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
45.5% /
45.5% |
24.2% /
31.8% |
3.1 /
3.9 |
65 /
63 |
43.2% /
46.0% |
41.5% /
39.7% |
30.5% /
19.4% |
3.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.8% /
34.9% |
30.6 /
23.2 |
Atlanta Falcons
@ 
Carolina Panthers