Game Analysis
Lean – Under (43.5) – INDIANAPOLIS (+3/+3.5) vs Jacksonville
My ratings have the Colts defense ranked 31st this season with most of the damage coming through the air. Even a clearly limited Marcus Mariota was able to torch the Colts for 9.2 yppp last week. However, this week’s matchup may favor Indianapolis because Jacksonville throws the ball less than any other team in the league and the Colts defense ranks a respectable 18th in opponent yards per rush. The Jaguars lead the league in rushing yards per game but they’ve done much of their damage when the game is out of reach. Jacksonville’s rush offense drops from 4th to 14th in my numbers when factoring out plays when one team has a greater than 80% in game win probability.
Indianapolis’s offense will likely need to rely on their ground game in this matchup. The Jaguars have the 3rd best pass defense in my metrics and held the Rams air attack to just 4.5 yppp last week. Jacksonville’s rush defense ranks last in the league and we could see a big game from Frank Gore if the Colts commit to the ground like they have in weeks past – Indianapolis is running the ball on 46% of plays, compared to just 39% last season, so this match-up should suit them. I think 3 is the right number so I’d lean with Indy at +3.5 and with Jacksonville at -2.5.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.3
36.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.4%
37.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
10.4%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
4.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.6%
21.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
27.1%
37.0%
-
NYPP
5.6
4.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.5
28.7
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
19.1%
24.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.2%
53.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.2%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
64.8
65.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
49.3%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
45.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
27.8
-
Run Ratio
53.7%
44.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.8
28.7
-
Game Control
4.1
-4.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.4%
50.6%
-
Sack Rate
9.5%
5.5%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
24.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.0%
56.3%
-
NYPP
6.2
8.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
29.5
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.3%
38.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.4%
39.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
67.7
-
Early Down Succ
39.5%
45.3%
-
Succ Rate
38.0%
44.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.4%
52.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
28.0
-
Run Ratio
46.3%
43.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
26.5
-
Game Control
-1.4
1.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% /
34.8% |
0.0% /
21.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.0 /
2.4 |
41.5% /
60.9% |
17.1% /
17.4% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
62 /
69 |
53.3% /
44.6% |
45.2% /
43.5% |
32.6% /
12.8% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
66.1% /
33.3% |
38.2 /
26.5 |
| 2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% /
42.9% |
5.6% /
3.6% |
5.9% /
3.7% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
64.0% /
68.4% |
12.0% /
10.5% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
61 /
66 |
52.1% /
64.0% |
50.8% /
57.6% |
23.5% /
41.6% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.0% /
57.6% |
23.4 /
39.9 |
| 3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% /
24.1% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.4 /
1.8 |
31.6% /
56.0% |
10.5% /
20.0% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
71 /
54 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
42.3% /
38.9% |
35.8% /
39.2% |
5.8 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
53.5% /
46.3% |
38.5 /
24.1 |
| 4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% /
44.4% |
2.8% /
13.9% |
2.9% /
3.2% |
3.8 /
6.0 |
57.5% /
31.3% |
20.0% /
43.8% |
4.4 /
8.0 |
76 /
68 |
50.8% /
37.3% |
44.7% /
38.2% |
27.6% /
68.6% |
4.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
52.6% /
47.1% |
27.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% /
42.9% |
12.5% /
3.6% |
7.1% /
9.3% |
5.1 /
5.4 |
40.5% /
40.0% |
24.3% /
35.0% |
6.2 /
3.5 |
53 /
76 |
36.6% /
41.0% |
39.6% /
42.1% |
60.1% /
44.5% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
26.4 /
21.8 |
| 6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% /
37.5% |
12.5% /
12.5% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
42.3% /
64.7% |
30.8% /
20.6% |
6.5 /
4.2 |
66 /
58 |
42.0% /
65.9% |
39.4% /
53.4% |
54.2% /
35.5% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
39.4% /
58.6% |
25.3 /
30.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% /
54.8% |
16.0% /
3.2% |
9.5% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
10.0 |
32.0% /
22.5% |
28.0% /
22.5% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
50 /
71 |
40.5% /
43.5% |
30.0% /
36.6% |
81.4% /
52.7% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
2.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
56.3% |
23.1 /
35.8 |
| 2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% /
40.0% |
9.8% /
10.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
4.6 /
7.7 |
34.5% /
34.6% |
24.1% /
11.5% |
2.6 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
36.5% /
39.6% |
38.6% /
37.9% |
16.5% /
63.6% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
39.4% |
24.5 /
29.6 |
| 3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
11.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
9.0 /
4.9 |
27.0% /
57.1% |
37.8% /
19.0% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
24.4% /
42.9% |
29.7% /
42.0% |
63.7% /
53.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
30.4% |
29.6 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% /
65.5% |
9.4% /
10.3% |
3.4% /
7.7% |
4.3 /
9.8 |
52.0% /
42.4% |
8.0% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
57 /
62 |
44.2% /
47.8% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
30.0% /
67.7% |
4.2 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
28.3 /
20.2 |
| 5 |
SF |
26 – 23 W |
3.3 |
44.7% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
4.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
7.0 |
32.4% /
31.8% |
32.4% /
31.8% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
75 /
70 |
38.2% /
46.3% |
38.7% /
44.3% |
58.1% /
37.3% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
31.4% |
28.8 /
17.5 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
1.2 |
51.4% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.7 /
9.2 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
57 /
68 |
53.2% /
51.9% |
47.4% /
50.0% |
22.6% /
42.2% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
51.5% |
26.5 /
27.4 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
@ 
Indianapolis Colts