Philadelphia Eagles
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Analysis
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs Philadelphia
Kansas City is coming off a big Thursday night performance in New England where they beat the defending champions 42-27. My adjEPA had the Chiefs performance at +30, so they performed even better than their point differential would indicate. Kansas City relied on a balanced offensive attack in week 1 ranking 2nd in both adjEPA/rush & adjEPA/pass.
Philadelphia opened the season with a 13-point road win in Washington. However, the game was closer than that according to adjEPA as the Eagles should’ve only won by 7 – mostly due to Washington only scoring 3 points in their two trips to the Redzone and losing 3 fumbles (one returned for a touchdown).
This game would be KC -3.5 using preseason implied wins and we have the fair line at -5 after the Chiefs big win over the Patriots. Andy Reid is famous for his team’s performance coming off a bye but that success hasn’t translated to games following mini-byes (10 days rest) – Reid is just 4-5 ATS in his career following a Thursday night game. No real value to be found in this game, so we’ll pass.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Eagles
- Chiefs
Pass
- Pass Plays 41.0 44.0
- Succ Pass Plays 51.2% 38.6%
- Sack Rate 4.9% 9.1%
- Int Rate 2.6% 2.5%
- Deep Pass Rate 21.1% 17.5%
- Big Pass Yards 45.3% 45.5%
- NYPP 7.3 4.5
Rush
- Rush Plays 25.0 17.0
- RB YPR 2.4 2.6
- Stuff Rate 28.0% 23.5%
- Succ Rush Plays 36.0% 58.8%
- Big Rush Yards 0.0% 15.6%
- Yards Per Rush 2.4 3.8
Game
- All Snaps 66.0 61.0
- Early Down Succ 44.0% 49.0%
- Succ Rate 45.5% 44.3%
- Big Yards Rate 37.8% 38.3%
- Yards Per Play 5.4 4.3
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 4.9%
- Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 25.1
- Run Ratio 37.9% 27.9%
- Starting Field Pos 31.8 26.1
- Game Control 5.1 -5.1
- Points 30.0 17.0