Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (48.5) – LA Rams at SEATTLE

Lean – LA Rams (-1.5)

• The Rams benched CB Tre’Davious White when Darious Williams became available and moved Quentin Lake from nickelback back to safety. Those moves have helped, as Los Angeles is conceding -0.10 EPA/dropback since week 5 (5th).
• Seahawks’ wide receiver DK Metcalf is averaging 1.98 yards per route run (17th) but he is banged up and will struggle across from CB Cobie Durant, who is conceding just 0.61 yards per cover snap (8th).
• Los Angeles interior defender Kobie Turner has 23 pressures (8th) and he has a favorable matchup across from RG Anthony Bradford, who ranks 4th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Seattle swing tackle George Fant is expected to practice this week but it’s unclear right now whether he will play Sunday, meaning it’s possible fourth-string RT Mike Jerrell or a gimpy Fant trying to protect Geno Smith against edge defender Byron Young, who ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency.
• The Seahawks’ defense has a 40% pressure rate (4th-highest) but has been let down by the run defense. However, Seattle addressed the weakness in a trade for LB Ernest Jones, who has a 7.8% run stop rate (20th) after his 10% run stop rate ranked 7th last season.
• The Seahawks’ pass defense has struggled when opponents go to heavy personnel but Seattle’s yppp allowed when not against 2 WR sets is 69% of the yppp versus heavy formations (2nd). Seattle’s defense has a good matchup against the Los Angeles offense, who employ 2 WR personnel on only 8% of snaps (31st).
• Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua had 106 receiving yards in his first game back, but he will be shut down by Tariq Woolen, who is conceding a league-low 0.32 yards per cover snap.
• Our model favors the Rams by 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 44.6 points.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 47.5 or more and 1-Star at 47.