Game Analysis

Lean – Under (40.5) – LA CHARGERS (-7/-7.5) vs New Orleans

• Denver’s defense had 14 pressures under 2.5 seconds last week in New Orleans as the Saints were starting 3 backups along the interior offensive line, but it is likely that starting guards Lucas Patrick and Cesar Ruiz will be back on Sunday.
• Derek Carr’s availability is more in doubt, and it will probably be Spencer Rattler under center again for this game and it isn’t necessarily an ideal matchup for a backup quarterback.
• Saints’ offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak wants to scheme manageable throws for the rookie to Alvin Kamara, who leads running backs averaging 0.08 EPA/target. However, the Chargers are allowing a league-low 26% success rate to opposing running backs.
• Furthermore, the Los Angeles defense is conceding -0.24 EPA/rush (2nd) and Rattler is unlikely to get support from the ground game.
• New Orleans starting WR Chris Olave will be back in uniform, but they will not have WR Rashid Shaheed, who has 15 deep targets (2nd) and leads the team in receiving yards.
• The Chargers have a 49% run rate (7th-highest) and a favorable matchup as the Saints defense is surrendering a 49% rush success rate (31st).
• Justin Herbert is averaging 0.25 EPA/play since the bye week (10th) after Jim Harbaugh indicated they would be making some changes to the offense.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 7.3 points, with a predicted total of 37.6 points, but New Orleans applies to a 134-55-6 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and I used the Saints in my spread pool.