Kansas City Chiefs @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Oct 20
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -1.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Lean – Kansas City (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

  • Here we are just over 6 months after the Super Bowl and the 49ers remain a short favorite over the Chiefs. San Francisco is down S Talanoa Hufanga and All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey while Kansas City is missing WR Rashee Rice and the defense doesn’t have All-Pro CB L’Jarius Sneed like they did last February.
  • Going unnoticed because of the 49ers record is Brock Purdy’s improvement this year. Purdy has increased his air yards per attempt from 8.3 to 10.0 while lowering his turnover-worthy play percentage from 3.2% to 1.8%.
  • Purdy is the 3rd-highest graded quarterback in the NFL by our metrics and Purdy’s 1.33 WAR is 2nd in the NFL according to PFF.
  • San Francisco’s ground game has remained steady without McCaffrey. RB Jordan Mason has a league-high 32 forced missed tackles and the 49ers averaged 6.9 yards per rush last week. However, the Chiefs are allowing -0.16 EPA/rush (7th) and they will slow down the run game.
  • Kansas City’s offense is targeting tight ends at a league-high 30% of passes and it was 38% in week 5 during the first game without WR Rashee Rice. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has a 65% success rate (3rd) and he has a favorable matchup with Hufanga sidelined.
  • San Francisco edge defender Nick Bosa’s 14 pressures last week tied for most in a game over the last four years, but it was against a third-string tackle in Stone Forsythe. Bosa will be contained more often this week across from Kansas City RT Jawaan Taylor, who ranks 15th in pass-blocking efficiency.
  • Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 33-8 straight up in games off a bye week as a head coach and his teams are 13-4-1 ATS as an underdog with extra time to prepare (week 1 or off a bye week), including 5-0 straight up the last 9 years.
  • Our model favors the 49ers by 0.6 points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points, and Patrick Mahomes is now 16-2 ATS and 14-4 straight up in games when his team is an underdog or favored up to 2 points. In other words, Mahomes and the Chiefs play their best when challenged.
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