Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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In a juego to be played in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, two teams sitting atop their respective division will face off. The Raiders lose a home game as the designated home team in this international bout. While many are quick to point out that the Texans are lucky to be 6-3 with their abysmal offense, ranking dead last in the NFL in passing with an aerial attack being piloted by an overpaid Brock Osweiller, you can not gloss over that the Raiders have been equally (if not more) fortunate to overcome a defense that ranks dead last in NYPP allowed, giving up 7.8 NYPP. And while the Texans have a negative yards per play margin of -0.5 (4.6 to 5.1), the Raiders are actually worse at -0.6 (5.9 to 6.5).

The Texans stats also look worse as they are near the bottom of the turnover differential at -7, while the Raiders have looked great putting up points on short fields with their +7 turnover differential. Turnovers tend to regress towards zero, so Houston should look better on the scoreboard going forward while the Raiders are likely to not be as fortunate.

The Raiders run defense ranks last in the league as they give up 4.6 YPR, so look for the Texans to control the clock with their #12 ranked ground attack and keep it close enough. The advanced stats model sees value on the team from Tejas, so Texans (+6) are a Strong Opinion (upgrade to a *1-star Best Bet at +7 at -110 or better). Lean to the Under.

NFL Best Bets 61-45 (57.5%) – 44-15 (75%) on NFL Sides

We had a nice bounce-back week after a rare losing week in week 10, as the week 11 NFL Best Bets went 7-3, going 5-1 on sides (TB, Minn, Buff, Dall, Sea, GB) and 2-2 on totals. The Strong Opinion 1-3 so far (0-1 sides, 1-2 totals) with a Monday Strong Opinion pending.

Best Bets are now 61-45 (57.5%) for the season (44-15 on sides and 17-30 on totals). NFL Strong Opinions are now 36-26-2 (58.1%) for the season (14-13-2 sides and 22-13 totals).

College Football Best Bets 20-9 the last 5 weeks and +16.5 Stars for the season!

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Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Raiders

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.9 34.4
Succ Pass Plays 41.6% 42.7%
Sack Rate 5.0% 6.0%
Int Rate 2.8% 1.3%
Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 19.7%
Big Pass Yards 25.7% 38.8%
NYPP 5.0 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 28.9 28.3
RB YPR 4.2 4.2
Stuff Rate 22.2% 21.5%
Succ Rush Plays 44.9% 43.8%
Big Rush Yards 41.9% 38.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.3

Game

All Snaps 66.8 62.8
Early Down Succ 45.1% 47.0%
Succ Rate 42.4% 43.5%
Big Yards Rate 34.7% 38.6%
Yards Per Play 4.6 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 28.8
Run Ratio 43.0% 44.9%
Starting Field Pos 28.9 29.5
Game Control -2.0 2.0

Points 17.9 20.9

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.3 37.3
Succ Pass Plays 45.2% 46.7%
Sack Rate 3.0% 4.0%
Int Rate 0.9% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 13.3% 20.0%
Big Pass Yards 36.0% 48.5%
NYPP 6.7 7.8

Rush

Rush Plays 27.2 24.8
RB YPR 4.7 4.5
Stuff Rate 20.8% 18.5%
Succ Rush Plays 46.6% 47.0%
Big Rush Yards 42.8% 40.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.6

Game

All Snaps 67.6 62.1
Early Down Succ 49.4% 50.8%
Succ Rate 46.0% 47.0%
Big Yards Rate 39.1% 47.4%
Yards Per Play 5.9 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 27.4
Run Ratio 40.0% 39.5%
Starting Field Pos 30.6 25.5
Game Control 1.5 -1.5

Points 27.2 24.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	23 – 14 W	-0.5	45.9% / 38.2%	5.4% / 14.7%	2.9% / 3.4%	5.8 / 5.4	37.8% / 60.0%	16.2% / 30.0%	3.5 / 3.7	74 / 54	38.0% / 53.8%	41.9% / 46.3%	41.3% / 42.6%	4.7 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 37.0%	33.0 / 25.1
2	KC	19 – 12 W	6.8	40.0% / 34.1%	5.7% / 9.8%	6.1% / 0.0%	7.3 / 4.2	32.4% / 36.8%	18.9% / 31.6%	2.7 / 6.3	72 / 60	41.2% / 39.1%	36.1% / 35.0%	38.2% / 37.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 5.0%	51.4% / 31.7%	35.9 / 29.5
3	@NE	0 – 27 L	-13.1	48.8% / 40.0%	4.7% / 5.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	4.1 / 4.9	40.7% / 48.8%	22.2% / 22.0%	4.0 / 4.6	70 / 61	50.0% / 54.5%	45.7% / 45.9%	13.4% / 51.1%	4.1 / 4.7	2.9% / 0.0%	38.6% / 67.2%	15.6 / 40.5
4	TEN	27 – 20 W	6.1	50.0% / 36.7%	2.6% / 3.3%	5.4% / 3.4%	6.4 / 6.5	54.2% / 56.3%	25.0% / 9.4%	4.8 / 3.9	62 / 62	55.1% / 47.8%	51.6% / 46.8%	45.1% / 50.0%	5.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 51.6%	28.0 / 30.7
5	@MIN	13 – 31 L	-17.1	30.4% / 56.3%	8.7% / 6.3%	2.4% / 0.0%	3.4 / 8.0	50.0% / 33.3%	28.6% / 23.1%	4.2 / 2.5	60 / 71	43.5% / 44.4%	35.0% / 43.7%	33.6% / 37.7%	3.6 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	23.3% / 54.9%	28.3 / 28.6
6	IND	26 – 23 W	-8.0	50.0% / 51.4%	2.5% / 8.6%	2.6% / 3.1%	6.4 / 6.6	48.3% / 46.9%	27.6% / 18.8%	5.5 / 5.0	69 / 67	51.8% / 53.8%	49.3% / 49.3%	49.2% / 49.5%	6.0 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	42.0% / 47.8%	22.4 / 32.5
7	@DEN	9 – 27 L	-5.1	35.7% / 44.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.1 / 6.3	60.0% / 47.2%	16.0% / 5.6%	5.6 / 5.3	67 / 61	48.9% / 52.1%	44.8% / 45.9%	19.2% / 43.7%	4.0 / 5.7	3.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 59.0%	25.3 / 33.2
8	DET	20 – 13 W	7.3	37.5% / 40.5%	9.4% / 2.4%	3.4% / 0.0%	5.1 / 5.5	32.4% / 28.6%	11.8% / 21.4%	3.2 / 4.1	66 / 56	35.6% / 40.9%	34.8% / 37.5%	31.3% / 28.7%	4.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	51.5% / 25.0%	38.4 / 20.9
10	@JAC	24 – 21 W	6.0	35.7% / 43.1%	3.6% / 3.9%	0.0% / 2.0%	3.3 / 4.8	48.5% / 36.4%	33.3% / 31.8%	5.5 / 3.6	61 / 73	42.2% / 36.4%	42.6% / 41.1%	41.0% / 7.3%	4.5 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.4%	54.1% / 30.1%	33.6 / 24.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	35 – 34 W	-4.0	48.6% / 58.5%	0.0% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.6 / 10.2	57.7% / 54.5%	23.1% / 18.2%	6.4 / 4.0	63 / 63	55.8% / 60.8%	52.4% / 57.1%	56.4% / 58.4%	7.7 / 8.0	0.0% / 1.6%	41.3% / 34.9%	28.6 / 19.7
2	ATL	28 – 35 L	-2.8	58.7% / 65.7%	2.2% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.5 / 11.1	60.0% / 51.7%	8.0% / 13.8%	6.2 / 4.8	71 / 64	63.2% / 61.1%	59.2% / 59.4%	30.8% / 50.2%	6.4 / 8.3	0.0% / 0.0%	35.2% / 45.3%	19.3 / 28.2
3	@TEN	17 – 10 W	6.7	44.4% / 32.4%	2.8% / 2.9%	2.9% / 6.1%	6.8 / 6.2	26.9% / 58.6%	19.2% / 13.8%	4.8 / 6.2	62 / 63	38.3% / 52.0%	37.1% / 44.4%	49.3% / 35.6%	6.0 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	41.9% / 46.0%	26.3 / 19.6
4	@BAL	28 – 27 W	4.6	42.9% / 39.6%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.3	20.0% / 53.8%	25.0% / 7.7%	3.2 / 5.0	55 / 79	40.0% / 48.3%	34.5% / 44.3%	19.4% / 33.3%	4.8 / 5.2	1.8% / 1.3%	36.4% / 32.9%	37.2 / 28.0
5	SD	34 – 31 W	-0.1	41.9% / 56.3%	7.0% / 6.3%	2.5% / 6.7%	7.0 / 11.0	56.0% / 42.1%	24.0% / 31.6%	3.6 / 3.8	68 / 51	49.1% / 54.8%	47.1% / 51.0%	44.0% / 62.4%	5.7 / 8.3	0.0% / 3.9%	36.8% / 37.3%	37.5 / 29.3
6	KC	10 – 26 L	-5.9	51.4% / 62.5%	5.7% / 4.2%	3.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 9.3	52.9% / 52.4%	29.4% / 11.9%	3.8 / 4.4	52 / 66	57.5% / 61.2%	51.9% / 56.1%	15.4% / 45.8%	5.5 / 6.2	1.9% / 0.0%	32.7% / 63.6%	25.5 / 37.4
7	@JAC	33 – 16 W	9.5	35.1% / 31.8%	0.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 4.7%	5.4 / 5.4	50.0% / 29.4%	22.2% / 17.6%	4.1 / 6.2	73 / 61	44.0% / 32.6%	42.5% / 31.1%	42.8% / 59.4%	4.7 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	49.3% / 27.9%	40.2 / 21.7
8	@TB	30 – 24 W	-2.4	41.0% / 35.3%	3.3% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 4.9	45.8% / 55.6%	25.0% / 18.5%	5.3 / 3.8	85 / 61	43.1% / 47.9%	42.4% / 44.3%	59.7% / 20.0%	7.4 / 4.4	1.2% / 0.0%	28.2% / 44.3%	24.1 / 26.5
9	DEN	30 – 20 W	8.3	42.4% / 38.5%	6.1% / 5.1%	0.0% / 2.7%	5.4 / 6.8	50.0% / 25.0%	10.9% / 33.3%	4.8 / 2.8	79 / 51	53.3% / 38.5%	46.8% / 35.3%	33.8% / 61.5%	5.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 2.0%	58.2% / 23.5%	36.7 / 19.4

Houston Texans vs

Oakland Raiders

Mon, Nov 21

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis