Game Analysis
Touchdown Tom makes his return home, as it will be the San Mateo kid’s first game back in the Bay Area to face off against his childhood team, the San Franciso 49ers. The Niners are riding an eight-game losing streak as they have not won since week 1. However, they did make progress last week in the closest game during the streak, losing by only a field goal. While the Niners give up 31.4 points per game, the big problem with their team has been the downfield passing attack as Kaepernick has been a shell of his younger self, averaging only 6.0 NYPP. Tom Brady has been the polar opposite of whatever CK7 is doing inside and outside of the pocket, averaging 9.0 NYPP and even in a loss to the vaunted Seahawks pass defense, TB12 put up an efficient 316 yards and 72% completion rate. The advanced stats model leans to the Pats and Over, though both are below model thresholds.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.4
40.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.3%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
0.3%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.4%
22.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.7%
35.3%
-
NYPP
7.8
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.8
24.8
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
23.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.5%
46.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.6%
32.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
64.2
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
49.5%
49.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.1%
47.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.0%
36.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
27.1
-
Run Ratio
47.8%
37.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.5
24.7
-
Game Control
6.8
-6.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.7
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.2%
46.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.2%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.0%
44.2%
-
NYPP
5.7
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.8
37.0
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
19.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.0%
47.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.5%
46.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
73.3
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
50.2%
-
Succ Rate
44.0%
47.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.0%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.8%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
24.4
28.1
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
50.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
30.5
-
Game Control
-4.7
4.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ARI |
23 – 21 W |
5.0 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
5.7% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
6.3 |
31.3% /
57.9% |
34.4% /
15.8% |
3.3 /
4.8 |
67 /
59 |
36.7% /
53.2% |
41.8% /
52.5% |
45.9% /
38.1% |
5.4 /
5.8 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
32.2% |
24.7 /
29.2 |
| 2 |
MIA |
31 – 24 W |
16.3 |
55.3% /
65.9% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
8.0 /
8.8 |
41.0% /
50.0% |
20.5% /
18.8% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
77 /
60 |
47.5% /
65.3% |
48.1% /
61.7% |
38.8% /
41.2% |
6.1 /
7.7 |
1.3% /
3.3% |
50.6% /
26.7% |
31.4 /
22.7 |
| 3 |
HOU |
27 – 0 W |
13.1 |
40.0% /
48.8% |
5.0% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
48.8% /
40.7% |
22.0% /
22.2% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
61 /
70 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
45.9% /
45.7% |
51.1% /
13.4% |
4.7 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
67.2% /
38.6% |
40.5 /
15.6 |
| 4 |
BUF |
0 – 16 L |
-11.1 |
43.3% /
43.9% |
10.0% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
40.9% /
56.3% |
27.3% /
21.9% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
52 /
73 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
42.3% /
49.3% |
34.3% /
22.8% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
42.3% /
43.8% |
22.9 /
23.3 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
33 – 13 W |
15.1 |
47.6% /
45.9% |
2.4% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
9.6 /
6.4 |
42.1% /
13.0% |
15.8% /
39.1% |
2.6 /
1.2 |
80 /
60 |
46.6% /
34.1% |
45.0% /
33.3% |
54.3% /
28.5% |
6.3 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.5% /
38.3% |
30.6 /
20.7 |
| 6 |
CIN |
35 – 17 W |
4.4 |
60.5% /
48.5% |
7.9% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
7.2 |
39.1% /
53.1% |
26.1% /
28.1% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
61 /
65 |
54.0% /
52.9% |
52.5% /
50.8% |
51.5% /
48.2% |
7.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
49.2% |
28.0 /
22.9 |
| 7 |
@PIT |
27 – 16 W |
6.2 |
57.7% /
39.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
8.5 /
6.1 |
53.3% /
40.9% |
16.7% /
27.3% |
4.7 /
4.3 |
56 /
68 |
57.1% /
42.0% |
55.4% /
39.7% |
33.1% /
35.7% |
6.5 /
5.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
53.6% /
32.4% |
29.6 /
32.3 |
| 8 |
@BUF |
41 – 25 W |
12.9 |
50.0% /
31.0% |
13.2% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
5.0 |
41.7% /
61.5% |
29.2% /
19.2% |
3.0 /
6.4 |
62 /
68 |
42.6% /
45.1% |
46.8% /
42.6% |
43.0% /
58.2% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
38.2% |
31.4 /
27.0 |
| 10 |
SEA |
24 – 31 L |
-1.0 |
55.9% /
57.5% |
5.9% /
7.5% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.1 |
53.6% /
46.2% |
28.6% /
19.2% |
2.9 /
3.7 |
62 /
66 |
54.9% /
53.7% |
54.8% /
53.0% |
44.2% /
39.8% |
6.2 /
6.4 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
45.2% /
39.4% |
26.1 /
28.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LA |
28 – 0 W |
12.6 |
45.7% /
27.0% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
4.9 /
3.2 |
37.2% /
37.5% |
32.6% /
20.8% |
3.5 /
2.8 |
78 /
61 |
40.4% /
35.7% |
41.0% /
31.1% |
35.2% /
29.0% |
4.1 /
3.0 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
55.1% /
39.3% |
24.4 /
31.4 |
| 2 |
@CAR |
27 – 46 L |
-7.8 |
39.5% /
47.5% |
5.3% /
2.5% |
5.6% /
2.6% |
6.2 /
8.8 |
34.6% /
40.5% |
26.9% /
24.3% |
2.5 /
4.8 |
64 /
77 |
41.7% /
43.5% |
37.5% /
44.2% |
46.7% /
55.6% |
4.7 /
6.9 |
1.6% /
3.9% |
40.6% /
48.1% |
33.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
@SEA |
18 – 37 L |
-19.7 |
28.0% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
4.0% /
3.1% |
4.8 /
8.6 |
38.7% /
36.4% |
16.1% /
27.3% |
4.4 /
3.9 |
56 /
67 |
35.0% /
40.0% |
33.9% /
43.3% |
25.2% /
49.9% |
4.5 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
55.4% /
49.3% |
33.6 /
35.1 |
| 4 |
DAL |
17 – 24 L |
3.0 |
45.8% /
58.8% |
4.2% /
5.9% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
6.9 |
50.0% /
54.3% |
33.3% /
6.5% |
3.6 /
4.3 |
54 /
80 |
48.6% /
68.4% |
48.1% /
56.3% |
47.0% /
33.2% |
5.5 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.6% /
57.5% |
25.4 /
28.0 |
| 5 |
ARI |
21 – 33 L |
-4.9 |
42.1% /
34.5% |
18.4% /
3.4% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
4.0 |
66.7% /
53.8% |
19.4% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
74 /
68 |
59.3% /
54.2% |
54.1% /
45.6% |
24.1% /
52.4% |
3.9 /
4.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
18.3 /
39.9 |
| 6 |
@BUF |
16 – 45 L |
-6.8 |
37.5% /
41.9% |
9.4% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
44.8% /
62.2% |
27.6% /
13.3% |
4.6 /
7.0 |
61 /
76 |
50.0% /
54.1% |
41.0% /
53.9% |
42.9% /
57.7% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
1.6% /
2.6% |
47.5% /
59.2% |
30.7 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
TB |
17 – 34 L |
-2.0 |
34.2% /
53.1% |
10.5% /
6.3% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
3.0 /
8.3 |
64.3% /
52.4% |
21.4% /
16.7% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
66 /
74 |
48.0% /
57.9% |
47.0% /
52.7% |
38.1% /
47.3% |
4.1 /
6.9 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
56.8% |
30.7 /
26.4 |
| 9 |
NO |
23 – 41 L |
-10.2 |
52.5% /
55.0% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.1 |
47.1% /
52.3% |
23.5% /
13.6% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
57 /
84 |
58.7% /
54.0% |
50.9% /
53.6% |
56.0% /
45.4% |
8.5 /
6.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
29.8% /
52.4% |
29.0 /
28.5 |
| 10 |
@ARI |
20 – 23 L |
-6.5 |
45.5% /
52.0% |
9.1% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
6.0 /
7.3 |
39.3% /
34.8% |
28.6% /
39.1% |
3.0 /
3.5 |
61 /
73 |
41.9% /
44.1% |
42.6% /
46.6% |
53.7% /
40.6% |
4.6 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
2.7% |
45.9% /
31.5% |
30.5 /
23.2 |
New England Patriots
@ 
San Francisco 49ers