Game Analysis

Note: The Under was released as a Best Bet to my subscribers earlier in the week and the line has since moved out of Best Bet range – although there is still some value.

Best Bet – *Under (54.5) – KANSAS CITY (-6) vs Baltimore

The total when these teams squared off in week 14 last year closed at 51 in Lamar Jackson’s 4th career start. The Chiefs were held to 5.3 yards per play, their lowest mark of the year, and the Ravens gained only 4.7 yards per play. Jackson has improved, but that game had favorable conditions for scoring on a sunny day with no wind in Kansas City while this Sunday it is expected to rain for at least part of the game with 7 mph winds, which is a difference of about 3 points from perfect conditions according to our metrics. Adding the 3 points change in weather to the already 3.5 point jump in the total would suggest that Baltimore’s offense is 7.5 points better than it was in week 14 of last year, which our model does not think is the case.

Baltimore’s offense has improved with Jackson ranking 3rd in the NFL at 9.6 yards per pass play, but I expect the Ravens to utilize their ground game more often versus a porous Chiefs rush defense. Kansas City plays soft coverage to allow more action underneath while limiting big play potential. Baltimore’s offense is more than capable of putting together long drives running the football and finding their tight ends, but this will take more clock than the deep shots they’ve gotten thus far. Furthermore, Jackson likely won’t have much time to look deep with left guard Bradley Bozeman overwhelmed by Kansas City’s Chris Jones, who leads all interior defenders with 11 pressures.

Backup wide receivers Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman did well replacing Tyreek Hill last week, combining for 2.95 yards per route run, but this Ravens secondary is significantly better than they saw in Oakland despite injuries to Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young because Earl Thomas is the best centerfield safety in the league. Also, left tackle Eric Fisher will miss this game with a groin injury, which will allow the Ravens to collapse the pocket quicker. Patrick Mahomes’ deep passing ability will be negated so Kansas City’s offense will be forced to utilize short to intermediate routes with Travis Kelce. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t faced a tight end above replacement level yet, but last year they surrendered 8.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (24th) and are likely to struggle containing Kelce, one of four tight ends gaining more than 3 yards per route run. The Ravens have the second-best rush defense in the NFL and I do not expect much from the Chiefs ground game.

The injuries to Baltimore’s cornerbacks are negated by the absence of Tyreek Hill. I believe both quarterbacks are unlikely to have the deep passing game available, especially on a slower wet field. A lack of big plays leads to longer drives and our model predicts just 49.0 total points (and favors Kansas City by 7.7 points). The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 54 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 53).