Game Analysis

Lean – NY Jets (+22) over NEW ENGLAND

This is the first of two matchups with greater than a 20-point spread in the NFL this week, the last time this happened was 1987. The Patriots are the first team in 25 years to start the season 2-0 straight up while covering the spread by more than 20 points in both games. However, since 1980 (as far back as my database goes) there have been 3 teams that have won their first two games by an average margin of 30 points or more and those 3 teams are 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS in week 3 while all scoring 14 points or fewer. Obviously, that’s a small sample size but it’s also a lesson in not overreacting to early season results. In general, teams that have won back-to-back games in which they scored 31 points or more and allowed 10 points or fewer in both games are just 10-38 ATS and the Jets apply to a 35-12 ATS week 3 situation that plays on teams that have underperformed in their first two games.

Last week, Tom Brady went 11-for-14 for 198 yards and a touchdown on throws 10+ yards downfield showing he still has some deep ball accuracy – although he’ll no longer have Antonio Brown to throw to (released on Friday night). New England loves to utilize the fullback calling formations with two backs on 31% of plays (league average 9%), which will be particularly effective versus a Jets defense without linebackers Avery Williamson and most likely CJ Mosley. I expect the Patriots to be run-heavy and milk the clock in another easy AFC East victory.

I did not think Trevor Siemian would be a huge downgrade from Sam Darnold, but now with Luke Falk under center it’s clear a major adjustment needs to be made. Gase clearly doesn’t trust Falk’s arm as evidenced by his pathetic 5.3 air yards per attempt on Monday. Falk was cut by the Titans as well as the Dolphins and wasn’t expected to make this roster either. Falk has no chance against New England’s top secondary. Le’Veon Bell ended up with the ball on 58.5% of the New York’s offensive plays against Cleveland, but Bill Belichick always takes away an opponent’s biggest strength and I do not expect a good outing from Bell.

This spread has shifted 13 points from the summer line of Patriots by 10. Our model favors New England by 19.8 with a predicted total of 46.8 and the situation favors the Jets. NFL favorites of more than 20 points are 0-7 ATS since 1980 and 4 of those games were the Tom Brady era Patriots. I’m not putting any money on this game but I’ll pick the Jets in my pool.