Game Analysis
GREEN BAY (-10) vs Miami
The Packers were in a position to possibly upset the Patriots last Sunday night when Aaron Jones fumbled in New England territory with the game tied at 17. Green Bay’s losses against the Rams and Patriots put them below .500 but they should take care of business on Sunday versus a Dolphins offense in shambles.
Brock Osweiler gained 7.5 yards per pass play in his first two starts but benefited greatly from his receivers and timely play calls as 34% of his yards came after the catch. Then Miami lost Albert Wilson, who still leads the NFL in yards after catch despite missing the last two games, and Osweiler has managed only 4.9 yards per pass play the past two weeks. The Packers have the 3rd-best pass defense in our metrics and I expect Osweiler to continue to struggle. Furthermore, Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels both rank in the top 10 among interior defensive linemen in pass rushing efficiency and they should be able to have their way against a Dolphins offensive line without center Daniel Kilgore and guard Josh Sitton.
Our model favors the Packers by 11-points in this game with a predicted total of 47.6. However, there is not enough value to recommend any level of play here. I’d lean with Green Bay at -9.5 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.7
33.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.7%
49.3%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
4.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
20.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.5%
46.4%
-
NYPP
6.9
8.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
30.9
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
24.3%
21.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
40.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.1%
46.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
55.4
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.9%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.4%
47.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.2
30.8
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
48.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
24.9
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.3
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.3%
46.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
9.4%
-
Int Rate
0.7%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.7%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.1%
51.5%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.1
28.3
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
18.5%
18.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.9%
46.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.2%
34.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
64.4
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
50.1%
48.2%
-
Succ Rate
50.0%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.3%
46.5%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
29.1
-
Run Ratio
34.3%
46.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.9
30.4
-
Game Control
-2.5
2.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
27 – 17 W |
3.5 |
55.2% /
36.8% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
7.1% /
7.9% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
53.3% /
44.8% |
26.7% /
17.2% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
59 /
67 |
66.7% /
41.2% |
54.2% /
40.3% |
44.3% /
17.0% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
43.3% |
35.5 /
29.2 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
20 – 12 W |
9.2 |
44.4% /
43.2% |
14.8% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
4.5 /
7.3 |
52.9% /
26.3% |
26.5% /
36.8% |
4.1 /
2.2 |
61 /
63 |
55.8% /
39.6% |
49.2% /
38.1% |
36.2% /
50.3% |
4.3 /
5.7 |
3.3% /
1.6% |
55.7% /
30.2% |
34.4 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
OAK |
28 – 20 W |
-2.8 |
48.0% /
57.1% |
4.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
13.3 /
7.7 |
20.0% /
55.9% |
33.3% /
14.7% |
2.8 /
3.3 |
40 /
76 |
43.3% /
62.1% |
37.5% /
56.6% |
62.8% /
32.6% |
9.4 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
44.7% |
30.6 /
19.7 |
| 4 |
@NE |
7 – 38 L |
-19.6 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
5.7% |
4.3 /
7.8 |
11.1% /
34.9% |
38.9% /
18.6% |
3.1 /
4.1 |
45 /
78 |
21.2% /
34.5% |
24.4% /
38.5% |
20.9% /
45.1% |
3.8 /
5.8 |
2.2% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
55.1% |
29.5 /
32.0 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
17 – 27 L |
4.6 |
77.3% /
68.2% |
13.6% /
9.1% |
10.5% /
5.0% |
7.7 /
10.4 |
45.5% /
29.6% |
13.6% /
25.9% |
5.8 /
3.9 |
44 /
49 |
48.9% /
45.7% |
61.4% /
46.9% |
25.3% /
52.9% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
2.3% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
55.1% |
25.5 /
22.9 |
| 6 |
CHI |
31 – 28 W |
0.3 |
48.8% /
54.5% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
4.7% /
3.2% |
8.8 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
43.8% |
9.7% /
9.4% |
5.2 /
5.2 |
74 /
65 |
53.4% /
48.0% |
52.7% /
49.2% |
48.2% /
60.7% |
7.3 /
7.2 |
1.4% /
3.1% |
41.9% /
49.2% |
28.7 /
25.3 |
| 7 |
DET |
21 – 32 L |
-8.1 |
48.6% /
60.9% |
11.4% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
9.1 |
47.4% /
54.1% |
26.3% /
21.6% |
5.6 /
6.8 |
54 /
60 |
46.5% /
66.0% |
48.1% /
56.7% |
40.4% /
60.8% |
6.0 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.2% /
61.7% |
25.2 /
23.0 |
| 8 |
@HOU |
23 – 42 L |
-7.4 |
40.0% /
45.0% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
12.0 |
64.0% /
38.9% |
20.0% /
19.4% |
4.6 /
5.3 |
65 /
56 |
54.9% /
39.0% |
49.2% /
41.1% |
34.3% /
64.0% |
5.7 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.5% /
64.3% |
25.3 /
29.7 |
| 9 |
NYJ |
13 – 6 W |
3.2 |
42.9% /
34.9% |
14.3% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
3.7 /
4.7 |
24.1% /
38.1% |
24.1% /
28.6% |
2.3 /
3.8 |
57 /
64 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
33.3% /
35.9% |
15.3% /
41.8% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.9% /
32.8% |
32.4 /
18.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% /
35.9% |
9.8% /
10.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
27.8% /
59.3% |
16.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
59 /
66 |
40.0% /
48.9% |
39.0% /
45.5% |
59.5% /
38.1% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
40.9% |
30.7 /
25.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% /
56.0% |
8.9% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.6 /
8.2 |
54.2% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
69 /
68 |
55.4% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
44.4% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
26.5% |
29.9 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% /
50.0% |
8.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.9 /
11.0 |
64.7% /
32.4% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.5% |
42.4% /
38.6% |
35.9% /
60.1% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
64.9% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% /
27.5% |
4.8% /
17.5% |
2.5% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
2.2 |
56.3% /
43.8% |
37.5% /
25.0% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
74 /
56 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
51.4% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
31.0% |
5.7 /
2.6 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.2% /
28.6% |
27.4 /
27.3 |
| 5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% /
52.9% |
11.1% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
10.0 |
52.4% /
34.5% |
9.5% /
27.6% |
4.7 /
3.3 |
57 /
46 |
55.6% /
32.6% |
70.2% /
41.3% |
41.2% /
37.7% |
9.2 /
5.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
63.0% |
20.5 /
46.1 |
| 6 |
SF |
33 – 30 W |
-1.4 |
37.5% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
8.4 /
9.1 |
52.4% /
66.7% |
14.3% /
13.3% |
5.5 /
5.8 |
69 /
55 |
44.4% /
67.4% |
42.0% /
60.0% |
55.5% /
54.1% |
7.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
30.4% /
54.5% |
32.0 /
25.9 |
| 8 |
@LA |
27 – 29 L |
2.6 |
45.5% /
43.9% |
9.1% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
21.1% /
28.6% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
52 /
76 |
58.1% /
43.6% |
51.9% /
43.4% |
69.4% /
51.3% |
6.9 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
46.1% |
21.1 /
31.7 |
| 9 |
@NE |
17 – 31 L |
-5.1 |
47.7% /
55.3% |
2.3% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
8.2 |
60.0% /
47.1% |
12.0% /
20.6% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
69 /
72 |
54.5% /
61.1% |
52.2% /
51.4% |
36.4% /
55.1% |
5.3 /
6.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
47.2% |
19.3 /
29.2 |
Miami Dolphins
@ 
Green Bay Packers