Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Indianapolis (+2.5) over NY JETS

The Colts were outgained by 1.1 yards per play in Foxboro last Thursday while ravaged by injuries after playing overtime the week prior (teams are now 6-26 ATS playing on Thursday after an OT game). However, Indianapolis should get LB Darius Leonard back for this contest and starting left tackle Anthony Castanzo looks set to suit up for the first time all season. Leonard ranked first among linebackers is pass rush efficiency and defensive stops before his injury and the Colts defense will improve with his return. Castanzo should provide a boost to an Indianapolis offensive line ranked 22nd in pass block efficiency.

Unfortunately, big-play receiver T.Y. Hilton is not expected to play on Sunday. Since joining the league in 2012, Hilton averages 0.2 more expected points per target than the other Indianapolis wide receivers, who combined for 6 drops last week, and his absence from the lineup is crucial this week with the Jets likely neutralizing another focal point of the Colts offense. Andrew Luck is targeting tight ends on 28% of his passes (3rd-most), but New York’s defense surrenders just 6.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends (7th). The Colts are the only team converting more than 50% of 3rd-downs this season, which is highly unlikely to continue as the season progresses, which means that the Indy offense is likely to get worse even if they’re playing at the same level.

The Jets are coming off an impressive win over Denver in which they gained 8.5 yards per rush while benefitting from some huge gains. New York had 4 runs that accounted for 205 of their 323 total rushing yards but long runs are difficult to replicate and yards per rush is significantly less predictive than early down rush success rate, where New York ranks 27th according to our metrics. I expect the Jets to be a bottom 5 offense overall moving forward with fewer long rushes and continuing inconsistency from rookie quarterback Sam Darnold, who has completed just 55.7% of his passes.

Our season-to-date ratings show the Jets and Colts have played at the exact same level this season, about 1.6 points below average, but we’ve only seen a 5-game sample and our preseason expectations for Indy were significantly higher than New York. Furthermore, the Colts have used their extra rest to get partially healthy and Andrew Luck will likely improve throughout the year as his comfort level increases. Luck is 20-8-2 ATS in his career coming off a loss and last week’s results have moved this line a couple of points, as the advanced spread for this game was Jets -1. Our model has the game at a pick and I’ll lean with Indianapolis at the current number while getting more interested if the line goes to +3 at -110 odds.

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
Jets

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 47.0 40.0
Succ Pass Plays 53.0% 60.0%
Sack Rate 4.0% 8.0%
Int Rate 2.7% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 14.6% 14.8%
Big Pass Yards 25.2% 28.0%
NYPP 6.0 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 20.6 27.4
RB YPR 3.2 3.8
Stuff Rate 21.0% 27.6%
Succ Rush Plays 44.4% 50.6%
Big Rush Yards 28.9% 48.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.9

Game

All Snaps 67.6 67.4
Early Down Succ 46.6% 56.9%
Succ Rate 50.1% 56.2%
Big Yards Rate 27.5% 33.0%
Yards Per Play 5.3 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.3 30.1
Run Ratio 31.1% 40.5%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 29.2
Game Control -1.7 1.7

Points 23.6 27.6

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.6 39.8
Succ Pass Plays 50.0% 50.9%
Sack Rate 7.8% 8.0%
Int Rate 5.2% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 11.9%
Big Pass Yards 41.9% 34.5%
NYPP 8.2 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 29.0 27.2
RB YPR 4.1 3.5
Stuff Rate 28.6% 30.1%
Succ Rush Plays 36.7% 43.7%
Big Rush Yards 45.5% 41.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.9

Game

All Snaps 58.6 67.0
Early Down Succ 42.7% 51.1%
Succ Rate 41.7% 48.8%
Big Yards Rate 45.2% 39.8%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.8 28.0
Run Ratio 49.7% 40.3%
Starting Field Pos 29.3 28.7
Game Control 1.1 -1.1

Points 24.6 21.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	23 – 34 L	3.1	56.4% / 60.0%	3.6% / 6.7%	1.9% / 3.6%	5.5 / 7.6	54.5% / 65.0%	22.7% / 20.0%	3.4 / 5.1	77 / 50	53.3% / 64.3%	55.8% / 62.0%	10.0% / 38.8%	4.9 / 6.6	1.3% / 2.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	33.4 / 26.2
2	@WAS	21 – 9 W	8.3	43.8% / 48.9%	3.1% / 6.4%	6.5% / 0.0%	5.5 / 5.7	40.0% / 40.9%	13.3% / 40.9%	3.5 / 3.0	62 / 69	40.5% / 50.0%	41.9% / 46.4%	25.4% / 28.1%	4.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.4%	48.4% / 31.9%	24.7 / 29.3
3	@PHI	16 – 20 L	-0.6	39.5% / 47.6%	4.7% / 11.9%	0.0% / 2.7%	3.3 / 5.4	38.5% / 60.0%	23.1% / 28.6%	5.2 / 4.3	56 / 77	45.2% / 55.6%	39.3% / 53.2%	46.9% / 34.0%	3.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.3%	23.2% / 45.5%	36.1 / 21.6
4	HOU	34 – 37 L	-6.7	48.5% / 55.3%	6.1% / 14.9%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.6 / 7.4	41.2% / 42.9%	41.2% / 28.6%	2.4 / 3.4	83 / 82	44.6% / 49.2%	47.0% / 50.0%	26.6% / 37.1%	5.8 / 5.7	2.4% / 0.0%	20.5% / 42.7%	24.1 / 33.4
5	@NE	24 – 38 L	-12.6	76.9% / 88.2%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.3% / 5.9%	9.1 / 10.0	47.6% / 44.0%	4.8% / 20.0%	4.0 / 4.0	60 / 59	49.2% / 65.5%	66.7% / 69.5%	28.7% / 26.8%	7.3 / 7.5	1.7% / 0.0%	35.0% / 42.4%	27.9 / 35.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	48 – 17 W	11.9	65.2% / 44.2%	8.7% / 0.0%	4.8% / 9.6%	7.8 / 5.8	32.6% / 37.5%	9.3% / 25.0%	4.0 / 2.5	66 / 68	53.8% / 51.0%	43.9% / 42.6%	55.1% / 37.9%	5.4 / 5.0	1.5% / 0.0%	65.2% / 23.5%	40.7 / 23.0
2	MIA	12 – 20 L	-9.2	43.2% / 44.4%	6.8% / 14.8%	4.9% / 0.0%	7.3 / 4.5	26.3% / 52.9%	36.8% / 26.5%	2.2 / 4.1	63 / 61	39.6% / 55.8%	38.1% / 49.2%	50.3% / 36.2%	5.7 / 4.3	1.6% / 3.3%	30.2% / 55.7%	24.1 / 34.4
3	@CLE	17 – 21 L	5.4	36.4% / 36.6%	6.1% / 9.8%	6.5% / 0.0%	4.9 / 4.6	50.0% / 42.9%	43.3% / 31.4%	3.6 / 3.9	63 / 76	42.6% / 42.6%	42.9% / 39.5%	22.4% / 32.3%	4.3 / 4.3	1.6% / 0.0%	47.6% / 46.1%	23.2 / 33.3
4	@JAC	12 – 31 L	-10.3	32.4% / 57.5%	8.1% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	3.9 / 9.4	28.6% / 38.2%	35.7% / 20.6%	2.4 / 3.7	51 / 74	35.1% / 50.0%	31.4% / 48.6%	23.6% / 50.5%	3.5 / 6.8	0.0% / 2.7%	27.5% / 45.9%	29.8 / 26.8
5	DEN	34 – 16 W	7.7	72.7% / 71.8%	9.1% / 10.3%	10.0% / 2.9%	17.2 / 8.8	46.2% / 47.1%	17.9% / 47.1%	8.3 / 5.4	50 / 56	42.6% / 56.1%	52.0% / 64.3%	74.5% / 42.2%	10.3 / 7.8	2.0% / 0.0%	78.0% / 30.4%	28.8 / 26.2

Indianapolis Colts @

New York Jets

Sun, Oct 14

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis