Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (46) – DENVER (-6) vs Oakland

Traveling to play in high altitude is difficult early in the year as teams adjust to the speed of the regular season and Denver is now 30-13-2 at home in the first two weeks of the season after last week’s win over the Seahawks (pushed ATS). The Broncos played well on both sides of the ball. Von Miller had 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles while Bradley Chubb recorded 7 quarterback pressures in his NFL debut, 3rd-most in the league. Case Keenum threw for 8.1 yards per pass play in his Broncos’ debut but will need to protect the ball better moving forward as he also threw 3 interceptions that kept that game closer than it should have been. The Broncos outgained the Seahawks by nearly a yard per play and now face a Raiders team that was just outscored 23-0 in the second half of their opening game against the Rams.

Oakland killed themselves on Monday night with 3 turnovers and 155 yards of penalties. The Raiders’ lone bright spot was tight end Jared Cook, who had 180 receiving yards. Cook has a great chance to build on that success this week, as the Broncos gave up the 3rd-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends last year and surrendered 105 yards to Seattle TE Will Dissly in week 1. I expect Cook will perform well and help Derek Carr bounce-back from an overall poor performance.

The advanced line for this game was Broncos -3 and it’s now moved 3 points based on one bad half of football from the Raiders. I’m going to stay off Oakland here because of the altitude, but it’s also worth noting the tired lungs particularly affect the defense early in the season in Denver with the over now 14-7-1 in weeks 1 and 2 here since 2000.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Broncos

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 35.0
Succ Pass Plays 60.8% 40.1%
Sack Rate 2.7% 2.9%
Int Rate 3.8% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 10.1% 24.8%
Big Pass Yards 45.7% 46.9%
NYPP 7.9 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 27.5
RB YPR 3.9 5.7
Stuff Rate 18.0% 10.8%
Succ Rush Plays 50.5% 56.3%
Big Rush Yards 23.5% 51.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 5.6

Game

All Snaps 62.0 62.5
Early Down Succ 60.1% 48.4%
Succ Rate 55.8% 47.2%
Big Yards Rate 40.3% 48.5%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.3 26.7
Run Ratio 40.5% 44.0%
Starting Field Pos 23.7 26.4
Game Control 2.4 -2.4

Points 16.0 26.5

DEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 36.0
Succ Pass Plays 46.8% 54.3%
Sack Rate 2.6% 9.2%
Int Rate 5.3% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 28.5% 18.4%
Big Pass Yards 60.4% 56.9%
NYPP 7.1 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 21.5
RB YPR 5.3 3.8
Stuff Rate 19.9% 21.8%
Succ Rush Plays 53.6% 31.6%
Big Rush Yards 46.0% 38.0%
Yards Per Rush 5.3 3.7

Game

All Snaps 68.0 57.5
Early Down Succ 50.4% 51.1%
Succ Rate 49.7% 45.5%
Big Yards Rate 55.4% 52.5%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 30.1
Run Ratio 44.1% 37.0%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 25.7
Game Control -2.1 2.1

Points 23.5 21.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LA	13 – 33 L	-1.4	48.8% / 44.1%	2.4% / 2.9%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.3 / 6.6	56.5% / 55.6%	17.4% / 3.7%	4.1 / 5.2	64 / 61	52.8% / 54.2%	51.6% / 49.2%	39.2% / 39.3%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.9% / 44.3%	23.5 / 27.0
2	@DEN	19 – 20 L	6.1	72.7% / 36.1%	3.0% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.5 / 6.0	44.4% / 57.1%	18.5% / 17.9%	3.4 / 6.0	60 / 64	67.3% / 42.6%	60.0% / 45.3%	41.3% / 57.7%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 43.8%	23.9 / 25.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	27 – 24 W	1.9	57.5% / 35.9%	2.5% / 15.4%	7.7% / 6.1%	8.1 / 6.2	50.0% / 18.8%	21.9% / 25.0%	4.6 / 4.0	72 / 55	58.3% / 34.9%	54.2% / 30.9%	53.2% / 63.7%	6.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.8%	44.4% / 29.1%	26.6 / 27.4
2	OAK	20 – 19 W	-6.1	36.1% / 72.7%	2.8% / 3.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.0 / 8.5	57.1% / 44.4%	17.9% / 18.5%	6.0 / 3.4	64 / 60	42.6% / 67.3%	45.3% / 60.0%	57.7% / 41.3%	6.0 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 45.0%	25.7 / 23.9

Oakland Raiders @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Sep 16

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis