Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Los Angeles Chargers (-7) vs BUFFALO

The Bills’ week 1 performance graded as by far the worst in the league and we’ll now see first-round quarterback Josh Allen starting under center for their home opener. Allen might be the worst performing college quarterback to ever be drafted – and the Bills wasted a first round pick on this guy. Allen’s got a strong arm but he completed just 56% of his passes in college and Wyoming’s pass offense last season with Allen as the triggerman rated 117^th in my compensated yards per pass play ratings out of 130 FBS teams. Buffalo apparently can’t afford an analytics staff to help them avoid this type of gamble. I put Allen in the same camp as strong-armed, inaccurate busts like Kyle Boller and Christian Hackenberg. I could be wrong about Allen, but I doubt it. But, he could be better than week 1 starter Nathan Peterman, which isn’t saying much, but averaging 3.2 yards on 18 pass plays last week is not enough to give Bills’ fans hope.

Speaking of hope, Allen better hope that Chargers’ pass-rusher Joey Bosa is not in uniform again. Bosa is listed as doubtful and his replacement, Isaac Rochell, managed just 1 quarterback pressure last week. The Chargers have a 6.6% sack rate with Bosa in the lineup compared to a 4.7% sack rate in the 5 games he’s missed since he joined the league. We make Bosa worth about a point and to make matters worse for Los Angeles’ pass rush, they will also be without Corey Liuget again (suspended for the first four games), whose 10.7% pressure rate last season ranked 12th among interior defensive linemen. Without Bosa or Liuget, Allen is likely to have more time in the pocket after being pressured on more than half of his garbage time dropbacks in week 1.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers’ offense is coming off an excellent week with Philip Rivers throwing for 8.0 yards per pass play and the LA running backs registering the 3rd-best rushing grade of the week. Overall, two turnovers, zero takeaways, and a typical missed field goal meant Los Angeles still came away with the loss, but they have a very good chance of getting their first win of the season on Sunday. Our model says there is no value in this game but I don’t think any model is capable of assessing how bad Allen is so I’ll lean with the Chargers at -7 or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Bills

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.5 33.0
Succ Pass Plays 60.6% 41.6%
Sack Rate 4.4% 8.4%
Int Rate 1.0% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 15.9% 33.2%
Big Pass Yards 36.8% 70.4%
NYPP 8.2 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 24.5 24.5
RB YPR 5.0 3.8
Stuff Rate 29.5% 28.9%
Succ Rush Plays 46.2% 56.9%
Big Rush Yards 61.8% 43.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.8 3.9

Game

All Snaps 65.0 57.5
Early Down Succ 58.4% 50.6%
Succ Rate 53.4% 48.0%
Big Yards Rate 44.6% 62.5%
Yards Per Play 6.8 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.7 27.4
Run Ratio 39.0% 42.9%
Starting Field Pos 28.3 27.9
Game Control 2.5 -2.5

Points 29.5 29.0

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.5 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 28.7% 54.0%
Sack Rate 14.3% 5.9%
Int Rate 6.1% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 30.8% 4.6%
Big Pass Yards 48.7% 38.0%
NYPP 3.6 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 22.0 30.5
RB YPR 3.5 3.7
Stuff Rate 31.8% 35.1%
Succ Rush Plays 38.6% 38.7%
Big Rush Yards 46.7% 55.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.8

Game

All Snaps 60.5 65.0
Early Down Succ 35.0% 49.4%
Succ Rate 32.3% 46.6%
Big Yards Rate 49.5% 43.5%
Yards Per Play 3.7 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.8 31.9
Run Ratio 36.4% 47.1%
Starting Field Pos 28.6 38.9
Game Control -20.2 20.2

Points 11.5 39.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	28 – 38 L	-9.6	55.8% / 46.4%	1.9% / 3.6%	2.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 9.1	59.1% / 59.3%	18.2% / 25.9%	5.6 / 3.9	74 / 55	61.3% / 55.6%	56.8% / 52.7%	45.1% / 66.0%	7.3 / 6.6	1.4% / 0.0%	29.7% / 49.1%	20.1 / 29.1
2	@BUF	31 – 20 W	14.5	65.5% / 36.8%	6.9% / 13.2%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.3 / 5.5	33.3% / 54.5%	40.7% / 31.8%	4.1 / 3.8	56 / 60	55.6% / 45.7%	50.0% / 43.3%	44.0% / 59.0%	6.3 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	48.2% / 36.7%	36.5 / 26.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BAL	3 – 47 L	-25.9	20.5% / 42.5%	15.4% / 5.0%	6.1% / 0.0%	1.8 / 6.3	22.7% / 44.1%	31.8% / 29.4%	3.8 / 3.4	61 / 74	24.4% / 43.3%	21.3% / 43.2%	39.9% / 43.1%	2.5 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.4%	36.1% / 45.9%	30.5 / 41.3
2	LAC	20 – 31 L	-14.5	36.8% / 65.5%	13.2% / 6.9%	6.1% / 0.0%	5.5 / 8.3	54.5% / 33.3%	31.8% / 40.7%	3.8 / 4.1	60 / 56	45.7% / 55.6%	43.3% / 50.0%	59.0% / 44.0%	4.9 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	36.7% / 48.2%	26.7 / 36.5

Los Angeles Chargers @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Sep 16

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis