2020 Football Best Bets were 87-55-3 (61.3%)
The football season is approaching and the summer has been spent updating the models that have produced profitable results over many years and that led to a very profitable 87-55-3 (61.3%) record on the 2020 Football Best Bets (NFL and College combined). All of my 2020-21 Football and Basketball Best Bets were a combined 252-186-6 for 57.5% winners, as the Best Bets based on the new College Basketball Model were 165-131-3 (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (more details below).
Note: I didn’t do the NBA last season and will once again skip the NBA so I can spend more time with my family once March Madness is over. The NBA Guru, who has contributed his Best Bets to my clients for the past 9 years with great success (54.6% winners and +213.9 Stars of profit) is undecided if he will continue his service in 2021-22 so no packages include the NBA as of now.
NFL Best Bets Service
The NFL Best Bets are now 281-193-2 (59.3%) while the NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%) in 5 seasons since using a model that is based on advanced metrics derived from play-by-play data.
The Best Bet sides have been extremely good, at 159-88-2 (64.4%) over all 5 seasons, and the Best Bet totals have been 65-46 (58.6%) the last 3 seasons since improving the weather adjustments.
That model continues to improve as the play-by-play data gets more detailed (allowing for more predictive metrics to be added) and last season’s NFL Best Bets were an incredibly good 59-27 (69%), which was helped a bit by winning more close games than we lost.
It’s highly unlikely that the incredible win percentage from 2020 can be replicated but winning 59% of Best Bets and 56% of Strong Opinions are 5 seasons is strong evidence that the NFL Best Bets are likely to be solidly profitable again in 2021.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.4%) – 159-88-2 on Sides, 96-83 on totals, 6-3 1st-half totals, 8-11 team totals, 11-7 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.
2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%) – 78-81-7 sides, 67-50-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-1 1st-half totals, 4-4 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 26-6 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets in the 2020 season was +3.4%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.4% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. The Best Bets beat the closing line 79% of the time this season.
You can subscribe to my NFL season package for $1295.
The NFL and College Football combination package is just $1995.
I also have a package that includes my College Basketball Best Bets season package with the NFL and College Football package, which will save you another $300.
You can subscribe to my Dr. Bob Football & Basketball package for $2995.
Note: If the season is cut short refunds for the remainder of the season will be issued.
College Football Best Bets Service
My College Football Best Bets are 2188-1810-75 (55%) on a Star Basis for +223.6 Stars Since 1999 and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 724-622-18 (625-533-16 on Sides and 99-89-2 on Totals).
2020 College Season Recap
My 2020 College Best Bets were just 28-28-3 for -4.9 Stars (0-1 on 3-Stars, 8-7 on 2-Stars, 20-20-3 on 1-Stars with -0.15 of juice) and my Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 for the season (14-12-2 sides, 11-7 totals).
The Best Bets were just 2-5-3 on toss-up games (instead of 50%) and with 2 undeserved losses against zero lucky wins this season (my first college season without a lucky win). The Best Bets were just 28-28-3 but winning those two games I certainly deserved to win and going 3-4-3 on toss-up games instead of 2-5-3, would have resulted in a decent 31-25-3 record (55.3%), which is right at my all-time win percentage in college football. The Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 (57%), so overall my level of handicapping in 2020 was pretty solid, especially considering the amount of late-breaking news due to the Covid pandemic.
I’ve had seasons when the luck has been on my side too and I won more close games than I lost in the NFL in 2020, which was incredibly good (59-27 for 69% on Best Bets), so no complaints about the 2020 football season overall (87-55-3 on all Football Best Bets), although I suppose the few of you that didn’t have the NFL package have some complaints.
I also have a package that includes my College Basketball Best Bets season package with the NFL and College Football package, which will save you another $300.
Note: If the season is cut short refunds for the remainder of the season will be issued.
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