Philadelphia Eagles Market Implied Wins: 10.1 Carson Wentz is saying “it’s going to be close” for him to play in week 1 and the Eagles probably won’t rush him back considering they just won the Super Bowl riding backup Nick Foles, who also got dinged up last week. Still, an adjustment would need to be made for Philadelphia’s offense if Foles …
New Orleans Saints Market Implied Wins: 9.4 The 2017 season ended in heartbreak for New Orleans as they were on the wrong side of the first ever fourth-quarter walk-off touchdown in NFL playoff history. However, last season’s Saints return almost all their key contributors including up front in the trenches. New Orleans was one of four offensive lines in the …
Minnesota Vikings Market Implied Wins: 9.9 After pulling off the Minneapolis Miracle versus New Orleans in the divisional round, the 2017 Vikings were unable to complete their dream of becoming the first Super Bowl team to play in their home stadium. Minnesota finished last season as the 5th-ranked team in our end-of-season ratings, but they clearly weren’t satisfied as …
Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that lose their first preseason game have been good bets against teams that …
Los Angeles Rams Market Implied Wins: 9.7 Head Coach Sean McVay achieved an incredibly successful debut season, moving the Rams from 30th in my end-of-year 2016 ratings to 3rd last season with an improvement of 14 points. McVay seemed to get the best out of quarterback Jared Goff, who is still on his rookie deal, and his $7.6 million …
I cringe every time I hear an analyst say that Kevin Durant is the best player on the Golden State Warriors. There is simply no data to back that claim up. In fact, the analysis strongly points towards Stephen Curry being significantly more valuable than Durant. Those that support Durant in this debate might use his two Finals MVP …
Midwest Region (1) Kansas (27-7) Kansas is a vulnerable #1 seed. The Jayhawks are not an elite defensive team (26th in compensated defensive efficiency) and they’re a poor rebounding team for a team of their level (+0.06 rebound margin per game), so they will have to make their shots in every game they play against other really good teams, …
East Region (1) Villanova (30-4) Villanova is certainly a deserving #1 seed and will be tough to beat. The Wildcats’ 4 losses were all due to 3-point variance, as they lost to Butler, St. John’s, Providence and Creighton by an average of only 5.8 points despite a combined 27.6% to 45.1% 3-point shooting discrepancy, which is highly random given …
West Region (1) Xavier (28-5) Xavier is the worst of the #1 seeds and is also the most likely top seed to be eliminated from this tournament before the regional final – most likely by the winner of the Gonzaga vs Ohio State 4-5 match-up. Xavier is still more likely than either of those teams to make the regional …
South Region (1) Virginia (31-2) Virginia is the consensus #1 team in the nation and the Cavaliers have played better overall than any other team in the nation. However, my issue with Virginia over the years is that they have no room for improvement because their defense can’t get any better than it already is by simply giving more …
