The following are the 3 College Season Win Totals Best Bets that I released to my subscribers on Friday morning, August 24 (I added the final one on Thursday the 30th).
Due to the past success of my season win totals (31-13-1, including 18-4-1 the last 5 years), the odds on these moved significantly and to the point where there is not enough value to play them.
Despite no longer qualifying as plays at current odds I decided to post them for the sake of the team analysis.
Good luck this season.
2018 College Win Total Best Bets
2-Stars – Iowa Under 7.5 wins (+114 odds)
The odds makers posted a season win total of 7.5 wins for Iowa, which would makes sense if the Hawkeyes’ 2017 points rating of 14 points better than an average team could repeat itself. However, Iowa was nearly as good last season as their points margin would suggest and I don’t think the Hawkeyes are as talented as they were a year ago, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Iowa managed to outscore their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game in the 2017 season despite being outgained by 28 yards per game (328 yards to 357 yards). Iowa was even in yards per play (5.1 yppl on offense and allowed 5.1 yppl), which is a better indicator of success than total yards, and the Hawkeyes were +7 in turnover margin and had excellent special teams. However, taking everything into account the Hawkeyes should have outscored their opponents by just 2.5 points per game rather than 8.3 points per game and my overall ratings pegged Iowa as a team that was 8.0 points better than an average FBS team, rather than the +13.8 rating that their points margin would suggest.
Iowa was only 7-5 in the regular season last year despite their +5.8 points of variance and getting to 8 wins this season will be a challenge for the Hawkeyes. I do think the offense will be improved a bit with the continued maturation of quarterback Nathan Stanley, but Iowa’s offense still projects as mediocre on a yards per play basis this season after rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average last season (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team).
The defensive side of the ball is where I expect the Hawkeyes to regress. Last season Iowa rated at 0.7 yppl better than an average team, which was their second best defensive rating in the last 7 years (2013 was better), but the Hawkeyes are not likely to be as good without 1st Team All-Americans LB Josey Jewell and CB Josh Jackson. Good teams losing good players every year, but a linebacker that not only racked up 134 tackles and 13.5 total tackles for loss but also defended 13 passes is impossible to replace and replacing a corner that intercepted 8 balls and broke up 18 other passes (led the nation) will also be more than challenging. Iowa lost 6 of their top 8 tacklers and two projected starters in the secondary, CB Manny Rugumba (8 starters last season) and FS Brandon Snyder (#3 tackler in ’16, injured last season), transferred out this summer. Iowa will not only be less talented defensively but they’re also unlikely to allow just 10.8 yards per completion, which is very low (they allowed 12.2 ypc the previous 3 seasons). Iowa’s run defense should be about the same (0.3 yards per rushing play better than average) but the pass defense, which was a very good 1.2 yards per pass play better than average, won’t be nearly as good without Jewell and Jackson. Iowa’s pass defense averaged a rating of 0.6 yppp better than average from 2014 to 2016 and that’s where my algorithm has the Hawkeyes rated at entering this season.
Iowa should still have very good special teams and a positive turnover margin but my ratings project the Hawkeyes to be about a point worse than last season’s team and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll out-perform their stats by nearly 6 points per game again. Coach Kirk Ferentz actually does tend to out-perform his stats by 1.3 points per game on average, and I’ve included that coaching tendency into my ratings, but that still puts the Hawkeyes at about 5 ½ points worse than they were overall last season (including the positive points variance).
Iowa only has two games with an 80% or more chance of winning (Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa) and two others with a very good chance of winning (Maryland and at Illinois), but the Hawkeyes also have two games that are projected at 75% or higher as losses (Wisconsin (24% win probability) and at Penn State, 16%). That leaves 6 games that I consider toss-ups (Iowa State, at Minnesota, at Indiana, at Purdue, vs Northwestern and vs Nebraska) and the Hawkeyes would have to win 4 or more of those 6 games to have a realistic shot at 8 wins. I do have Iowa slightly in 4 of those 6 games but their projected wins in those games is just 3.2 wins and their chance of winning 4 or more of them is only 39%. So, if they win the 4 games they are 67% or more favored to win (3.2 expected wins out of those) and lose the two games that they should lose (0.4 expected wins) then Iowa would have only a 39% chance of getting to 8 wins. My wins projection is actually only 6.6 wins for the Hawkeyes, as not only do I believe they’re an overrated team but I also feel that there are more teams on their schedule that are underrated than overrated. I’ll play 2-Stars on Iowa Under 7.5 wins (+114) at Even money or better and for 1-Star up to -110 odds.
2-Stars – Massachusetts Over 5.5 Wins (-115 odds)
Last season UMass started with an 0-6 record but all 6 of those losses were competitive games, with the average loss being just 7.2 points and 4 of those games being decided by one-possession (i.e. 8 points or less). Rather than packing it in the Minutemen rallied to win 4 of their final 6 games, including an upset of Appalachian State an a win at BYU, and they very competitive in a 23-34 loss (without their starting quarterback) as a 33 point dog at Mississippi State. Massachusetts actually outgained their opponents by 26 total yards per game and by an average of 6.1 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play last season and were +3 in turnover margin. A team with those numbers should not have gone 4-8. Horrific special teams play was part of the problem, but it’s unlikely the impact of the Minutemen’s special teams will be as negative this season and the rest of the team is improved.
U Mass returns 9 of their 11 starters on offense, including under-appreciated QB Andrew Ford, who averaged a robust 6.9 yards per pass play while throwing 22 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. The interception total should rise some but the U Mass attack should also move the ball better with more experience and quality depth.
The Minutemen were better defensively than their overall numbers suggest, as the 5.9 yards per play allowed (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) was skewed a bit by the 666 yards at 9.2 yppl that they allowed in their season finale at FIU. U Mass allowed lower than the national average in yards per play in 8 of their 12 games a year ago and were just 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively after adjusting for variance and schedule strength. The Minutemen ‘D’ should be about the same this season, but could improve if the replacements on the line can play up to the level of those that departed. The secondary looks solid again with 3 of 4 starters, including both cornerbacks, returning this season after allowing just 53.3% completions a season ago.
U Mass should be slightly better overall from the line of scrimmage due to an experienced offense that blossomed in the second half of last season and the special teams can’t possibly be as bad as they were in 2017. The improvement in level of play, combined with better fortune in close games and a very easy schedule should get the Minutemen to 6 wins or more this season.
How easy is the schedule? U Mass faces 6 teams that I rate at 17 points or more worse than average. They open as a 23 point favorite over Duquesne and also face bad teams FIU, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Connecticut and Liberty. The Minutemen should be favored in all 6 of those games, with 4.9 wins expected, and they should be able to win at least one of their toss-up games at Georgia Southern and home against BYU – two teams they beat last season by a combined 41 points. There are also winnable games at Ohio and home against South Florida (31% and 33% win probabilities) and the Minutemen have a 54% chance to win at least one of those games. There is very little chance to win road games at Boston College and Georgia but if U Mass wins 5 of the 6 games against the really bad teams they face (which I project them to do at a 73% likelihood; 31% to go 6-0 and 42% to go 5-1) then they’ve only got to win 1 of the other 4 winnable games (Georgia Southern, BYU, Ohio, and USF) to get to 6 wins and I give them an 86% chance of getting at least one win in that set of games.
The sum of the win probabilities of each game for U Mass add up to 6.6 wins and there is a very strong chance of getting 6 or more wins this season for an improving team facing a very easy schedule (aside from BC and Georgia). I’ll play 2-Stars on Massachusetts Over 5.5 Wins (-115) at -120 odds or better and for 1-Star up to -130 odds.
2-Stars – Navy Over 7 Wins (-121 odds)
Navy has 13 regular season games this season and the Midshipmen have gone 7-6 or better in 9 of coach Ken Niumatalolo’s 10 previous seasons at the helm. This year’s Navy squad should be about the same defensively as they’ve been the last two seasons, which is about 0.7 yards per play below average, but the offense should be improved with Malcolm Perry taking over at quarterback after making 3 starts behind center near the end of last season. How good is Perry? Well, Perry is so good that quarterback Zach Abey, who had the second most rushing yards of any quarterback in Navy history last season (1413 yards in just 10 starts) is switching positions – although he’ll still get plenty of chances to run the ball. Perry had 1182 rushing yards at 8.6 ypr playing mostly at slot back and he ran for 675 yards in basically 2 ½ games at the quarterback position (he only played half the bowl game because Navy was beating up on Virginia so badly that they didn’t need him). Navy’s triple-option attack was 1.2 yards per rushing play better than average on 162 team runs with Perry at quarterback last season (7.2 yprp against teams that would allow 6.0 yprp to an average team) and just +0.4 yprp on 638 rushing plays with Abey or Lewis at quarterback (5.5 yprp against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp). Perry has not proven that he can throw the ball and he hasn’t really needed to given how good the rushing attack has been with him handling the ball. In fact, Navy called just 2 pass plays and 162 rushing plays with Perry behind center last season. Zach Abey will still get some snaps behind center in short yardage and goal line situations, where he excels (19 rushing touchdowns last season), and he’ll likely be called upon if Navy is forced to throw the ball more often.
I believe the Navy offense will improve quite a bit with Perry at quarterback and running the ball 95% of the time (or more) will allow the Middies to dominate the ball even more than usual, which will give opponents fewer opportunities to take advantage of their worse than average defense (0.5 yppl worse than average last season and projected at 0.7 yppl worse than average this season). Fewer passing will also result in fewer interceptions (10 last season was the highest since 2005) so I expect the Midshipmen to be on the positive side of the ledger in turnover differential this season after a rare negative season in that category last year.
Overall, Navy should once again be a better than average team and this season’s schedule is easier with a game at Hawaii taking the place of a road game at Florida Atlantic and a home game against lowly Lehigh being added. Only games at UCF and against Notre Dame are really daunting (24% and 10% win projections) and Navy is 17-2 straight up at home the last 3 seasons, which puts home games against conference titans Memphis and Houston into the toss-up category (I don’t think Memphis is as good as many project). The other 9 games I have Navy projected as a favorite. A few of those games will be as favorites of 7 points or less but run-oriented teams tend to win more close games than normal and Navy is 33-18 in 10 seasons under coach Niumatalolo in games decided by 7 points or less and 59% straight up in games when the line is less than plus or minus 7 points.
My ratings project 8.0 wins for the Midshipmen this season even without taking into account their tendency to win a higher percentage of close games than expected. There is a pretty good chance that Navy gets to 8 wins and I think it’s unlikely that they go 6-7 or worse. I’ll play 2-Stars on Navy to go Over 7 wins (-121) at -125 odds or less and for 1-Star up to -135 odds.
2-Stars – Iowa Under 7.5 wins (+114 odds)
The odds makers posted a season win total of 7.5 wins for Iowa, which would makes sense if the Hawkeyes’ 2017 points rating of 14 points better than an average team could repeat itself. However, Iowa was nearly as good last season as their points margin would suggest and I don’t think the Hawkeyes are as talented as they were a year ago, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Iowa managed to outscore their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game in the 2017 season despite being outgained by 28 yards per game (328 yards to 357 yards). Iowa was even in yards per play (5.1 yppl on offense and allowed 5.1 yppl), which is a better indicator of success than total yards, and the Hawkeyes were +7 in turnover margin and had excellent special teams. However, taking everything into account the Hawkeyes should have outscored their opponents by just 2.5 points per game rather than 8.3 points per game and my overall ratings pegged Iowa as a team that was 8.0 points better than an average FBS team, rather than the +13.8 rating that their points margin would suggest.
Iowa was only 7-5 in the regular season last year despite their +5.8 points of variance and getting to 8 wins this season will be a challenge for the Hawkeyes. I do think the offense will be improved a bit with the continued maturation of quarterback Nathan Stanley, but Iowa’s offense still projects as mediocre on a yards per play basis this season after rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average last season (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team).
The defensive side of the ball is where I expect the Hawkeyes to regress. Last season Iowa rated at 0.7 yppl better than an average team, which was their second best defensive rating in the last 7 years (2013 was better), but the Hawkeyes are not likely to be as good without 1st Team All-Americans LB Josey Jewell and CB Josh Jackson. Good teams losing good players every year, but a linebacker that not only racked up 134 tackles and 13.5 total tackles for loss but also defended 13 passes is impossible to replace and replacing a corner that intercepted 8 balls and broke up 18 other passes (led the nation) will also be more than challenging. Iowa lost 6 of their top 8 tacklers and two projected starters in the secondary, CB Manny Rugumba (8 starters last season) and FS Brandon Snyder (#3 tackler in ’16, injured last season), transferred out this summer. Iowa will not only be less talented defensively but they’re also unlikely to allow just 10.8 yards per completion, which is very low (they allowed 12.2 ypc the previous 3 seasons). Iowa’s run defense should be about the same (0.3 yards per rushing play better than average) but the pass defense, which was a very good 1.2 yards per pass play better than average, won’t be nearly as good without Jewell and Jackson. Iowa’s pass defense averaged a rating of 0.6 yppp better than average from 2014 to 2016 and that’s where my algorithm has the Hawkeyes rated at entering this season.
Iowa should still have very good special teams and a positive turnover margin but my ratings project the Hawkeyes to be about a point worse than last season’s team and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll out-perform their stats by nearly 6 points per game again. Coach Kirk Ferentz actually does tend to out-perform his stats by 1.3 points per game on average, and I’ve included that coaching tendency into my ratings, but that still puts the Hawkeyes at about 5 ½ points worse than they were overall last season (including the positive points variance).
Iowa only has two games with an 80% or more chance of winning (Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa) and two others with a very good chance of winning (Maryland and at Illinois), but the Hawkeyes also have two games that are projected at 75% or higher as losses (Wisconsin (24% win probability) and at Penn State, 16%). That leaves 6 games that I consider toss-ups (Iowa State, at Minnesota, at Indiana, at Purdue, vs Northwestern and vs Nebraska) and the Hawkeyes would have to win 4 or more of those 6 games to have a realistic shot at 8 wins. I do have Iowa slightly in 4 of those 6 games but their projected wins in those games is just 3.2 wins and their chance of winning 4 or more of them is only 39%. So, if they win the 4 games they are 67% or more favored to win (3.2 expected wins out of those) and lose the two games that they should lose (0.4 expected wins) then Iowa would have only a 39% chance of getting to 8 wins. My wins projection is actually only 6.6 wins for the Hawkeyes, as not only do I believe they’re an overrated team but I also feel that there are more teams on their schedule that are underrated than overrated. I’ll play 2-Stars on Iowa Under 7.5 wins (+114) at Even money or better and for 1-Star up to -110 odds.
2-Stars – Massachusetts Over 5.5 Wins (-115 odds)
Last season UMass started with an 0-6 record but all 6 of those losses were competitive games, with the average loss being just 7.2 points and 4 of those games being decided by one-possession (i.e. 8 points or less). Rather than packing it in the Minutemen rallied to win 4 of their final 6 games, including an upset of Appalachian State an a win at BYU, and they very competitive in a 23-34 loss (without their starting quarterback) as a 33 point dog at Mississippi State. Massachusetts actually outgained their opponents by 26 total yards per game and by an average of 6.1 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play last season and were +3 in turnover margin. A team with those numbers should not have gone 4-8. Horrific special teams play was part of the problem, but it’s unlikely the impact of the Minutemen’s special teams will be as negative this season and the rest of the team is improved.
U Mass returns 9 of their 11 starters on offense, including under-appreciated QB Andrew Ford, who averaged a robust 6.9 yards per pass play while throwing 22 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. The interception total should rise some but the U Mass attack should also move the ball better with more experience and quality depth.
The Minutemen were better defensively than their overall numbers suggest, as the 5.9 yards per play allowed (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) was skewed a bit by the 666 yards at 9.2 yppl that they allowed in their season finale at FIU. U Mass allowed lower than the national average in yards per play in 8 of their 12 games a year ago and were just 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively after adjusting for variance and schedule strength. The Minutemen ‘D’ should be about the same this season, but could improve if the replacements on the line can play up to the level of those that departed. The secondary looks solid again with 3 of 4 starters, including both cornerbacks, returning this season after allowing just 53.3% completions a season ago.
U Mass should be slightly better overall from the line of scrimmage due to an experienced offense that blossomed in the second half of last season and the special teams can’t possibly be as bad as they were in 2017. The improvement in level of play, combined with better fortune in close games and a very easy schedule should get the Minutemen to 6 wins or more this season.
How easy is the schedule? U Mass faces 6 teams that I rate at 17 points or more worse than average. They open as a 23 point favorite over Duquesne and also face bad teams FIU, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Connecticut and Liberty. The Minutemen should be favored in all 6 of those games, with 4.9 wins expected, and they should be able to win at least one of their toss-up games at Georgia Southern and home against BYU – two teams they beat last season by a combined 41 points. There are also winnable games at Ohio and home against South Florida (31% and 33% win probabilities) and the Minutemen have a 54% chance to win at least one of those games. There is very little chance to win road games at Boston College and Georgia but if U Mass wins 5 of the 6 games against the really bad teams they face (which I project them to do at a 73% likelihood; 31% to go 6-0 and 42% to go 5-1) then they’ve only got to win 1 of the other 4 winnable games (Georgia Southern, BYU, Ohio, and USF) to get to 6 wins and I give them an 86% chance of getting at least one win in that set of games.
The sum of the win probabilities of each game for U Mass add up to 6.6 wins and there is a very strong chance of getting 6 or more wins this season for an improving team facing a very easy schedule (aside from BC and Georgia). I’ll play 2-Stars on Massachusetts Over 5.5 Wins (-115) at -120 odds or better and for 1-Star up to -130 odds.
2-Stars – Navy Over 7 Wins (-121 odds)
Navy has 13 regular season games this season and the Midshipmen have gone 7-6 or better in 9 of coach Ken Niumatalolo’s 10 previous seasons at the helm. This year’s Navy squad should be about the same defensively as they’ve been the last two seasons, which is about 0.7 yards per play below average, but the offense should be improved with Malcolm Perry taking over at quarterback after making 3 starts behind center near the end of last season. How good is Perry? Well, Perry is so good that quarterback Zach Abey, who had the second most rushing yards of any quarterback in Navy history last season (1413 yards in just 10 starts) is switching positions – although he’ll still get plenty of chances to run the ball. Perry had 1182 rushing yards at 8.6 ypr playing mostly at slot back and he ran for 675 yards in basically 2 ½ games at the quarterback position (he only played half the bowl game because Navy was beating up on Virginia so badly that they didn’t need him). Navy’s triple-option attack was 1.2 yards per rushing play better than average on 162 team runs with Perry at quarterback last season (7.2 yprp against teams that would allow 6.0 yprp to an average team) and just +0.4 yprp on 638 rushing plays with Abey or Lewis at quarterback (5.5 yprp against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp). Perry has not proven that he can throw the ball and he hasn’t really needed to given how good the rushing attack has been with him handling the ball. In fact, Navy called just 2 pass plays and 162 rushing plays with Perry behind center last season. Zach Abey will still get some snaps behind center in short yardage and goal line situations, where he excels (19 rushing touchdowns last season), and he’ll likely be called upon if Navy is forced to throw the ball more often.
I believe the Navy offense will improve quite a bit with Perry at quarterback and running the ball 95% of the time (or more) will allow the Middies to dominate the ball even more than usual, which will give opponents fewer opportunities to take advantage of their worse than average defense (0.5 yppl worse than average last season and projected at 0.7 yppl worse than average this season). Fewer passing will also result in fewer interceptions (10 last season was the highest since 2005) so I expect the Midshipmen to be on the positive side of the ledger in turnover differential this season after a rare negative season in that category last year.
Overall, Navy should once again be a better than average team and this season’s schedule is easier with a game at Hawaii taking the place of a road game at Florida Atlantic and a home game against lowly Lehigh being added. Only games at UCF and against Notre Dame are really daunting (24% and 10% win projections) and Navy is 17-2 straight up at home the last 3 seasons, which puts home games against conference titans Memphis and Houston into the toss-up category (I don’t think Memphis is as good as many project). The other 9 games I have Navy projected as a favorite. A few of those games will be as favorites of 7 points or less but run-oriented teams tend to win more close games than normal and Navy is 33-18 in 10 seasons under coach Niumatalolo in games decided by 7 points or less and 59% straight up in games when the line is less than plus or minus 7 points.
My ratings project 8.0 wins for the Midshipmen this season even without taking into account their tendency to win a higher percentage of close games than expected. There is a pretty good chance that Navy gets to 8 wins and I think it’s unlikely that they go 6-7 or worse. I’ll play 2-Stars on Navy to go Over 7 wins (-121) at -125 odds or less and for 1-Star up to -135 odds.
1-Star – Indiana Over 5.5 Wins (-105)
Indiana’s starting quarterback battle was settled last week when accurate sophomore Peyton Ramsey was named the starter over former Arizona starter Brandon Dawkins and highly rated freshman Michal Penix. Dawkins was expected to win the job upon transferring as a graduate student after losing his position to Heisman Trophy contender Khalil Tate. The last two seasons with Arizona Dawkins was a better than average passer (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and averaged 8.4 yards on 182 runs. Ramsey was a below average passer as a freshman despite completing 65.4% of his passes (134 for 205). The problem was that Ramsey settled for too many easy throws and averaged just 9.3 yards per completion. The result was an average of just 5.4 yppp (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). However, reports from Bloomington are that Ramsey has mastered the playbook and his passing trumped the running of Dawkins. Considering that Dawkins had pretty good passing numbers at Arizona, Ramsey must have been really, really impressive to win that QB battle. Sophomores do tend to improve the most from year to year and the receiving corps is more talented despite the loss of last year’s leading receive Sammie Cobbs and TE Ian Thomas. The loss of Thomas could hurt some, as he averaged 10.2 yards on 37 balls thrown to him, but Cobbs averaged a sub-par 6.8 yards per target and replacing him with Nick Westbrook is a huge upgrade. Westbrook missed last season with an injury but he racked up 995 yards on 92 targets (10.8 yards per target) in 2016. My algorithm projects Ramsey to rate at 0.3 yppp better than average but I think he can be much better considering he beat out Dawkins (although I conservatively used +0.3 yppp in my projection). Top running back Morgan Ellison has been suspended indefinitely but he’s not that much more talented the rest of the Hoosiers’ backs (Ellison only averaged 4.9 ypr last year) and the offensive line should be better with all 5 of last year’s starters returning and in the second year of the offense. I rate the Hoosier’s attack at 0.3 yards per play better than average entering this season (-0.2 yppl last season) but there is upside potential.
Indiana’s defense was really good last season, rating at 0.8 yppl better than average (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense), and they most likely won’t be as good. However, I do think the Hoosiers’ stop unit will be better than the 3 returning starters suggests. Cornerback A’Shon Riggins has 12 starts the last two seasons but missed most of last season with an injury (only 3 starts) and Marcelino Ball, who started 12 games in 2016, was out for the season after 3 starts last season and will also return. The defensive line lost 3 starters but DE Nile Sykes, who missed all of last season, should put pressure on opposing quarterbacks after registering 5 sacks as a backup in 2016. Indiana’s defense isn’t as experienced as last year’s unit was but the Hoosiers have more experience and talent than it appears and they should still be good defensively (I rate that unit at 0.6 yppl better than average).
Overall, Indiana should be a bit better than they were last season and the Hoosiers were much better last season than their 5-7 record indicates. Indiana was 8 points better than average from the line of scrimmage in 2017 but they had the misfortune of playing in the Big 10 East, which includes Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State. Indiana also was unfortunate to have been 0-4 in games decided by one possession and they should improve upon their -7 turnover margin – Ramsey threw just 5 picks in 205 passes last season and a secondary that allowed just 54.5% completions should have intercepted more than 5 passes.
Indiana has two highly likely wins in FIU and Ball State and I have the Hoosiers with a 67% or higher probability of winning in 3 other games (home against Virginia, at Rutgers, and home against Maryland). There are 3 games that fall in the toss-up category (home against Iowa, at Minnesota, and home against Purdue), two likely losses (home games against Michigan State and Penn State) and two games with a very strong likelihood of losing (road games at Ohio State and Michigan).
My ratings project 6.6 wins for Indiana and I’ll play 1-Star on Indiana Over 5.5 wins (-105) at -120 odds or better.
Dr Bob College Football Service
My College Football Best Bets are 2038-1679-64 (55%) on a Star Basis for +219.6 Stars Since 1999 (+222.7 Stars on Sides, -32.7 Stars on Totals, and +29.6 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 637-560-15 (578-498-14 on Sides and 59-62-1 on Totals).
My 2017 College Best Bets were a decent 56-47-2 but I feel my level of handicapping was better than that record. My 101 Best Bets (excluding the 4 season win totals) combined to cover by a total of 229 points, which is an average of +2.3 points, despite my side Best Bets being -9 in fumble margin, which is random and worth about 36 points. A line differential of +2.3 points would normally equate to a win percentage of 56.1% winners, which is the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2016.
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2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model and my NFL Best Bets the last two seasons are a very profitable 137-101-2 (58%). Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.
The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and an improvement to the model was introduced starting in week 11 of the 2017 season that improved results (21-10-1 on Best Bets the last 10 weeks of the season). Work was done this summer to fine tune the model and the back-tested results were very good – particularly on totals, which have underperformed the last two seasons. I am very excited about the improvement to the play-by-play predictive model and look forward to a profitable 2018 season.
2016-17 NFL Best Bets were 137-101-2 (57.6%) – 92-48-2 on sides, 44-48 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 0-1 team totals, 0-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.
2016-17 NFL Strong Opinions were 92-71-4 (56.4%) – 41-43-3 sides, 43-27-1 totals, 1-0 1st-half totals, 7-1 Super Bowl prop bets.
2017 NFL Best Bets were 37-32-2 (26-22-2 sides, 10-5 totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 0-1 team totals, 0-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals) and Strong Opinions were 28-19 (14-13 sides, 7-4 totals, 1-1 1st-half totals, 6-1 Super Bowl prop bets).
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