Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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The newly minted most winningest quarterback in NFL history, Touchdown Tom Brady, will face off against one of the top-ranked defensive units in the league. Baltimore is the second-ranked defensive unit allowing only 4.8 yards per play and a 42.0% success rate. Offensively for the Ravens, they are coming off their best performance of the year averaging 56% success rate and 6.9 yards per play in a 38-6 blowout of the Dolphins. The advanced stats model sees value on both the Under and Ravens, so lean to UNDER (45) and Baltimore (+7), both below model thresholds.

Team Stats
Game Log

Ravens
Patriots

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.3 38.7
Succ Pass Plays 43.0% 46.0%
Sack Rate 4.4% 6.5%
Int Rate 2.3% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 15.7% 19.3%
Big Pass Yards 33.2% 37.1%
NYPP 6.0 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 22.0
RB YPR 3.7 3.3
Stuff Rate 25.1% 32.0%
Succ Rush Plays 41.2% 31.0%
Big Rush Yards 37.6% 35.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.3

Game

All Snaps 68.3 60.7
Early Down Succ 45.3% 43.2%
Succ Rate 42.0% 41.0%
Big Yards Rate 36.3% 37.3%
Yards Per Play 5.1 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 28.6
Run Ratio 36.3% 36.3%
Starting Field Pos 28.1 27.8
Game Control 3.3 -3.3

Points 21.3 17.3

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.4 39.2
Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 45.2%
Sack Rate 4.8% 5.8%
Int Rate 0.3% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 23.6%
Big Pass Yards 41.8% 37.8%
NYPP 7.4 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 30.3 24.0
RB YPR 3.8 3.7
Stuff Rate 22.9% 23.5%
Succ Rush Plays 43.8% 45.5%
Big Rush Yards 40.3% 28.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.9

Game

All Snaps 66.8 63.2
Early Down Succ 49.7% 47.6%
Succ Rate 47.5% 45.4%
Big Yards Rate 42.3% 37.6%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.8 27.6
Run Ratio 45.7% 37.7%
Starting Field Pos 29.8 24.4
Game Control 6.9 -6.9

Points 26.6 17.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BUF	13 – 7 W	3.5	44.7% / 37.5%	10.5% / 8.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 4.0	35.5% / 45.8%	22.6% / 41.7%	2.8 / 2.7	69 / 48	45.8% / 45.5%	40.6% / 41.7%	47.9% / 38.8%	4.5 / 3.3	1.4% / 0.0%	44.9% / 50.0%	23.1 / 31.9
2	@CLE	25 – 20 W	-7.1	46.7% / 47.2%	0.0% / 8.3%	4.4% / 6.1%	6.7 / 6.7	30.8% / 26.1%	19.2% / 43.5%	3.1 / 6.3	71 / 59	35.2% / 32.6%	40.8% / 39.0%	37.2% / 53.2%	5.4 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	36.6% / 39.0%	27.5 / 25.7
3	@JAC	19 – 17 W	4.2	47.6% / 47.6%	4.8% / 9.5%	5.0% / 7.9%	4.7 / 4.0	39.1% / 33.3%	4.3% / 33.3%	3.7 / 2.3	65 / 63	51.0% / 44.7%	44.6% / 42.9%	20.8% / 9.3%	4.4 / 3.4	1.5% / 0.0%	35.4% / 33.3%	28.4 / 36.4
4	OAK	27 – 28 L	-4.6	39.6% / 42.9%	3.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 5.7	53.8% / 20.0%	7.7% / 25.0%	5.0 / 3.2	79 / 55	48.3% / 40.0%	44.3% / 34.5%	33.3% / 19.4%	5.2 / 4.8	1.3% / 1.8%	32.9% / 36.4%	28.0 / 37.2
5	WAS	10 – 16 L	0.1	36.0% / 61.0%	6.0% / 2.4%	0.0% / 2.5%	3.8 / 6.1	57.9% / 33.3%	31.6% / 23.8%	6.2 / 2.9	69 / 62	49.0% / 60.9%	42.0% / 51.6%	24.2% / 31.8%	4.4 / 5.0	1.4% / 1.6%	27.5% / 33.9%	26.2 / 24.5
6	@NYG	23 – 27 L	2.9	32.0% / 53.2%	4.0% / 2.1%	0.0% / 4.3%	5.9 / 8.4	53.8% / 35.3%	34.6% / 23.5%	3.8 / 2.2	76 / 64	42.9% / 51.1%	39.5% / 48.4%	45.5% / 47.8%	5.1 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.6%	34.2% / 26.6%	33.3 / 20.1
7	@NYJ	16 – 24 L	0.4	34.1% / 37.0%	2.3% / 18.5%	4.7% / 0.0%	5.4 / 7.0	8.3% / 37.5%	58.3% / 15.0%	0.5 / 3.9	56 / 67	31.0% / 38.8%	28.6% / 37.3%	41.6% / 59.4%	4.4 / 5.1	1.8% / 3.0%	21.4% / 59.7%	25.3 / 32.3
9	PIT	21 – 14 W	9.0	33.3% / 31.9%	9.1% / 4.3%	3.3% / 2.2%	6.8 / 5.1	19.4% / 21.1%	35.5% / 36.8%	1.7 / 1.9	64 / 66	30.2% / 30.4%	26.6% / 28.8%	50.4% / 51.8%	4.3 / 4.2	0.0% / 0.0%	48.4% / 28.8%	30.9 / 24.4
10	CLE	28 – 7 W	5.3	54.8% / 37.1%	4.8% / 11.4%	5.0% / 6.5%	6.6 / 3.2	37.8% / 23.1%	21.6% / 30.8%	3.3 / 2.5	79 / 48	48.4% / 36.8%	46.8% / 33.3%	35.9% / 31.3%	5.0 / 3.0	0.0% / 2.1%	46.8% / 27.1%	38.4 / 18.1
11	@DAL	17 – 27 L	-1.5	50.0% / 70.3%	2.8% / 2.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.4 / 8.1	68.8% / 40.0%	31.3% / 20.0%	6.3 / 3.9	52 / 67	60.5% / 56.4%	55.8% / 56.7%	37.5% / 27.6%	7.1 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	30.8% / 44.8%	21.2 / 25.0
12	CIN	19 – 14 W	8.5	40.5% / 43.1%	5.4% / 5.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.9 / 5.1	36.7% / 25.0%	30.0% / 40.0%	3.1 / 3.2	67 / 71	40.0% / 38.9%	38.8% / 38.0%	25.1% / 44.0%	4.6 / 4.6	0.0% / 2.8%	44.8% / 28.2%	25.8 / 27.0
13	MIA	38 – 6 W	18.6	57.1% / 42.9%	0.0% / 4.8%	2.0% / 7.5%	7.9 / 5.1	52.2% / 31.3%	4.3% / 50.0%	4.9 / 3.9	72 / 58	61.1% / 42.2%	55.6% / 39.7%	36.1% / 32.9%	6.9 / 4.8	1.4% / 0.0%	31.9% / 27.6%	28.7 / 30.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ARI	23 – 21 W	5.0	51.4% / 50.0%	5.7% / 7.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 6.3	31.3% / 57.9%	34.4% / 15.8%	3.3 / 4.8	67 / 59	36.7% / 53.2%	41.8% / 52.5%	45.9% / 38.1%	5.4 / 5.8	3.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 32.2%	24.7 / 29.2
2	MIA	31 – 24 W	16.3	55.3% / 65.9%	5.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.5%	8.0 / 8.8	41.0% / 50.0%	20.5% / 18.8%	4.2 / 4.4	77 / 60	47.5% / 65.3%	48.1% / 61.7%	38.8% / 41.2%	6.1 / 7.7	1.3% / 3.3%	50.6% / 26.7%	31.4 / 22.7
3	HOU	27 – 0 W	13.1	40.0% / 48.8%	5.0% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.9 / 4.1	48.8% / 40.7%	22.0% / 22.2%	4.6 / 4.0	61 / 70	54.5% / 50.0%	45.9% / 45.7%	51.1% / 13.4%	4.7 / 4.1	0.0% / 2.9%	67.2% / 38.6%	40.5 / 15.6
4	BUF	0 – 16 L	-11.1	43.3% / 43.9%	10.0% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 6.0	40.9% / 56.3%	27.3% / 21.9%	4.1 / 4.2	52 / 73	51.4% / 50.0%	42.3% / 49.3%	34.3% / 22.8%	5.3 / 5.2	1.9% / 0.0%	42.3% / 43.8%	22.9 / 23.3
5	@CLE	33 – 13 W	15.1	47.6% / 45.9%	2.4% / 5.4%	0.0% / 2.9%	9.6 / 6.4	42.1% / 13.0%	15.8% / 39.1%	2.6 / 1.2	80 / 60	46.6% / 34.1%	45.0% / 33.3%	54.3% / 28.5%	6.3 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	47.5% / 38.3%	30.6 / 20.7
6	CIN	35 – 17 W	4.4	60.5% / 48.5%	7.9% / 6.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 7.2	39.1% / 53.1%	26.1% / 28.1%	3.4 / 3.8	61 / 65	54.0% / 52.9%	52.5% / 50.8%	51.5% / 48.2%	7.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 49.2%	28.0 / 22.9
7	@PIT	27 – 16 W	6.2	57.7% / 39.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	8.5 / 6.1	53.3% / 40.9%	16.7% / 27.3%	4.7 / 4.3	56 / 68	57.1% / 42.0%	55.4% / 39.7%	33.1% / 35.7%	6.5 / 5.5	3.6% / 0.0%	53.6% / 32.4%	29.6 / 32.3
8	@BUF	41 – 25 W	12.9	50.0% / 31.0%	13.2% / 4.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.0	41.7% / 61.5%	29.2% / 19.2%	3.0 / 6.4	62 / 68	42.6% / 45.1%	46.8% / 42.6%	43.0% / 58.2%	5.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 38.2%	31.4 / 27.0
10	SEA	24 – 31 L	-1.0	55.9% / 57.5%	5.9% / 7.5%	3.1% / 0.0%	8.9 / 8.1	53.6% / 46.2%	28.6% / 19.2%	2.9 / 3.7	62 / 66	54.9% / 53.7%	54.8% / 53.0%	44.2% / 39.8%	6.2 / 6.4	1.6% / 0.0%	45.2% / 39.4%	26.1 / 28.5
11	@SF	30 – 17 W	7.6	47.5% / 40.0%	2.5% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	51.6% / 51.9%	12.9% / 29.6%	5.5 / 4.5	71 / 62	48.1% / 47.9%	49.3% / 45.2%	51.2% / 39.1%	6.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 43.5%	32.8 / 23.5
12	@NYJ	22 – 17 W	-1.3	46.0% / 54.5%	0.0% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 8.2	40.0% / 45.8%	16.0% / 12.5%	3.8 / 2.7	75 / 57	51.9% / 54.5%	44.0% / 50.9%	36.3% / 45.2%	5.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 3.5%	33.3% / 42.1%	31.9 / 22.2
13	LA	26 – 10 W	15.0	45.7% / 16.7%	0.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 6.3%	5.8 / 3.5	41.9% / 28.6%	25.8% / 28.6%	4.4 / 2.6	77 / 50	50.9% / 22.9%	44.2% / 20.0%	23.5% / 40.5%	5.2 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 28.0%	27.6 / 25.1

Baltimore Ravens @

New England Patriots

Mon, Dec 12

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis