Game Analysis

Lean – Over (52.5) – Kansas City (-3) vs DALLAS

• Dak Prescott threw for 174 yards on play-action passes last week, the second-most play-action yardage of his career. Prescott will have a favorable matchup on Thanksgiving with play action, as the Chiefs are allowing a league-high 53% more yards per attempt against play action compared to standard dropbacks.
• Cowboys RT Tyler Guyton is out, and he is worth 0.4 points according to our metrics. Guyton is allowing an 8.1% pressure rate, and his backup Nathan Thomas is surrendering a 12.8% pressure rate.
• Kansas City interior defender Chris Jones ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency, but he will be contained as the Dallas interior offensive line is at fault for only 41% of the allowed pressures (5th).
• Cowboys WR George Pickens’ 1,054 receiving yards this season are more than the Steelers’ wide receivers combined, and that has proved to be a great trade for Dallas. However, I think Pickens will line up across from All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie for most of the snaps in this game, and Prescott will feature WR CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging 2.35 yards per route run (7th).
• The Cowboys’ defense is better from trades (DT Quinnen Williams, LB Logan Wilson) and players coming back from injury (safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, LB DeMarvion Overshown, and CB Shavon Revel).
• Williams had a career high 8 pressures against the Eagles, and he has a favorable matchup this week as the Chiefs will be without RG Trey Smith, who is conceding a 4.0% pressure rate, while backup guard Mike Caliendo is surrendering a 9.0% pressure rate.
• Patrick Mahomes has a favorable matchup when the pocket is not collapsing, as Dallas has an 83% zone-coverage rate (6th-highest) and Kansas City’s offense is averaging 40% more yards per attempt versus zone-coverage compared to man (3rd).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 54.3 points, but the situation favors Dallas a bit with Kansas City playing on a short week after an overtime game (Teams playing on Thursday after an OT game are just 6-23 ATS since 2000 if opponent is not off an OT game).