Game Analysis

Lean – Under (41.5) – MIAMI (-5.5) vs New Orleans

• Seeing Miami as nearly a touchdown-favorite is a surprise at first glance, but New Orleans just hasn’t been able to cover numbers. The Saints are down to 3-8 ATS this season and Miami is bully that struggles against good teams and beats up on the weak. The Dolphins are 13-2 ATS under coach Mike McDaniel when favored by more than a point against a team with a win percentage under 0.333, including 2-0 ATS this season.
• The Dolphins will try to establish the ground game as a favorite. Miami ranks 7th in EPA/rush, but RB De’Von Achane could be limited as New Orleans defense is allowing -0.12 EPA/rush (6th).
• Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is better off using Achane on screens in this game. Achane is averaging 1.32 yards per route run (4th), and the Saints are surrendering 0.20 EPA/target to opposing running backs (27th).
• Miami’s defense has the 2nd-highest cover 2 rate, and they could struggle against a New Orleans offense averaging 21% more yppp against cover 2 (5th).
• Tyler Shough will likely have to wait another week to get back Saints starting RT Taliese Fuaga, who is allowing a 7.8% pressure rate compared to backup RT Asim Richards surrendering a 12.3% pressure rate.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 4.6 points, with a predicted total of 39.3 points, but I used Miami in my pool based on their history of covering as favorites against bad teams.