Game Analysis

Lean – Under (41) – SEATTLE (-11.5/-12) vs Minnesota

• Max Brosmer is likely to be at the helm for the Vikings on Sunday, and it doesn’t get much harder for a first NFL start in Seattle. The Seahawks are allowing only 5.1 yppp (3rd).
• Brosmer was just an average FBS quarterback in college, and his best comparison is Tommy DeVito, who has a career average of 4.3 yppp.
• Brosmer was careful with the ball, throwing just 6 interceptions on 403 passes at the University of Minnesota last season, and he will take fewer risks than JJ McCarthy, who has a 5.9% Turnover Worthy Play Rate (2nd-worst).
• Minnesota could be missing both LG Donovan Jackson and LT Christian Darrisaw, who is conceding a 6.4% pressure rate. Vikings backup left tackle Justin Skule is allowing a 11.9% pressure rate.
• Seattle’s defense has an 8.0% sack rate (8th), and they should raise that on Sunday.
• Seahawks’ WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 37.5% of the team’s targets, which is the highest percentage of any receiver since 2012.
• Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 16 receptions having 20+ air yards, and Sam Darnold is averaging 9.4 air yards per attempt (2nd).
• I think Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores can shut down Seattle’s downfield passing attack. Minnesota’s defense has a league-high 67% two-high coverage rate, and the Seahawks offense ranks 31st relatively against two-high coverage compared to single-high coverage.
• Our model makes Seattle a 12.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.6 points.