Game Analysis

Lean – Over (44.5) – Arizona (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY

• Both of these teams are getting healthier this week. On offense, the Buccaneers are getting back RB Bucky Irving and LG Ben Bredeson, while the Cardinals are getting back WR Marvin Harrison. Tampa Bay’s defense is getting back edge rusher Haason Reddick and cornerback Jamel Dean, while Arizona’s defense is getting back cornerback Will Johnson.
• Will Johnson is allowing a team-low 0.67 yards per cover snap and has been out for the three-game losing streak. Arizona’s defense is a half point better with the rookie cornerback on the field.
• Buccaneers’ backup CB Benjamin Morrison is allowing 0.88 more yards per cover snap than Jamel Dean, who is worth 0.7 points by our metrics.
• Tampa Bay edge defender Haason Reddick had 27 pressures through the first 7 weeks of the season (12th) before an ankle and knee injury sidelined him for several games.
• Baker Mayfield suffered a low-grade shoulder sprain on the final play before halftime against the Rams last week, but he’s going to play through it in a favorable matchup. Mayfield is averaging 44% more yards per attempt against zone-coverage compared to man (2nd), and the Cardinals have an 83% zone-coverage rate (7th-highest). Specifically, Arizona’s defense is 2nd in cover 4 rate, and the Buccaneers offense is averaging a league-high 87% more yppp against cover 4 compared to other coverages.
• Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison might ease back into the offense, but Arizona’s offense did not stray away from the pass without Harrison, as Jacoby Brissett has 113 dropbacks in the last two games.
• Tampa Bay’s defense has a 43% blitz rate (4th-highest) and is surrendering 0.45 EPA/target to opposing running backs (31st). I expect the Cardinals to catch the Buccaneers in those blitzes, as Arizona’s offense is one of 8 in the NFL to target running backs on at least 20% of passes, and the Cardinals lead the league averaging 23% more yards per attempt versus the blitz compared to standard pass rushes.
• Arizona C Hjalte Froholdt ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit interior defender Vita Vea, who has 30 pressures (16th).
• Our model makes Tampa Bay a 6.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.9 points, but Arizona applies to a 137-60-6 ATS bounce-back situation while the Bucs apply to a negative 40-104-1 ATS situation. I used Arizona in my spread pool.