Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over Houston

• There’s no reason to panic about the Colts’ offense after 5.1 yppl in a playoff-like atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium last week. The Colts remain atop the NFL, averaging 0.17 EPA/play, and they come back home to the dome on Sunday, where they are averaging 34.2 points per game.
• Houston’s defense has a 41% pressure rate (3rd), but it will be contained by an Indianapolis offensive line that ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Daniel Jones is averaging 18% more yards per attempt versus zone compared to man-coverage (6th), and he has a favorable matchup as the Texans have an 85% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest).
• CJ Stroud will go against the best cornerbacks in the league in his first game back. Indianapolis cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward are combining to concede only 0.63 yards per cover snap.
• Gardner has allowed just 3.8 yards per target since joining the Colts, and he will shut down Houston WR Nico Collins, who has Nico Collins 7 receptions with at least 20 air yards (10th).
• Indianapolis edge rusher Laiatu Latu has 44 pressures (13th) and he will wreak havoc across from rookie LT Aireontae Ersery, who ranks 9th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Colts by 6.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.1 points, and Houston applies to a 20-77-4 ATS letdown situation.
• The line on the Colts has come down from -4.5 to -3 because it was revealed the quarterback Daniel Jones has a fractured fibula. Jones played through that injury last week in their spread win against the Colts and it has been indicated that the only issue is pain, which apparently Jones can handle since he’s already played a full game (and OT) with the injury.  I don’t see any need for an adjustment, as Jones actually ran for more yards last week than his season average, but the Colts would still be a Best Bet at the release line of -3.5 even if I deducted a point from the Colts’ offense.

Indianapolis is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4.5 or less.