Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – San Francisco (-4.5 -115) over CLEVELAND

Lean – Over (35)

• The early in the week weather scare that saw this total drop 5 points seems to be a little bit overblown to me, as there is no longer rain/snow in the forecast during this game.
• There will, however, be extremely high winds. Scoring conditions are projected to be 3.4 points worse than an average Browns home game, according to our metrics.
• I trust San Francisco’s offense more if the winds are high enough to completely negate the passing offenses. The 49ers have a 43.4% rush success rate (11th) while the Browns have a league-low 32.6% rush success rate.
• Brock Purdy has a much more favorable matchup than Shedeur Sanders if the wind permits passing. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan’s core passing concepts directly attack the hole that single-high coverage creates, and the 49ers are averaging 18% more yppp against single-high compared to two-high (5th). Cleveland’s defense leads the NFL with a 60% single-high coverage rate.
• Sanders had only a 29.2% success rate last week, and most of his yardage output came on two plays: a deep shot to Isaiah Bond in the first quarter and a huge catch-and-run screen to Dylan Sampson in the fourth quarter.
• Cleveland’s offense is targeting tight ends on 32.7% of passes (3rd-most), but the 49ers are conceding 0.07 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (6th). Sanders’ screens to the running backs will also be shut down as San Francisco’s defense is conceding -0.08 EPA/target to opposing running backs (9th).
• The Browns have the 2nd-highest heavy personnel rate in the NFL, but they will be contained as the 49ers defense ranks 2nd relatively against heavy personnel, conceding just 80% of the yppp they do against 3+ wide receiver sets.
• Our model makes San Francisco an 8.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.1 points.

San Francisco is a Strong Opinion at -5 or less.