Game Analysis

Lean – Las Vegas (+9.5) over LA CHARGERS

• Raiders’ edge rusher Maxx Crosby has 38 pressures (19th), and he has a favorable matchup against the Chargers’ backup tackles.
• The Los Angeles offense is averaging -0.09 EPA/play without LT Joe Alt on the field compared to +0.10 EPA/play with Alt.
• Justin Herbert ranks 31st relatively against standard pass rush compared to the blitz because opponents can get to him quickly by rushing just 4. Las Vegas has a 74% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest).
• However, the Raiders have a league-high 87% zone coverage rate, and they could struggle as Herbert ranks 7th relatively against zone-coverage compared to man-coverage.
• Herbert will target his wide receivers versus the Las Vegas zone. The Raiders are allowing only a 48% success rate to opposing tight ends (7th) and will limit TE Oronde Gadsden, who is averaging 0.32 EPA/target (7th).
• Las Vegas fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly even though the pitfall of the offense is more likely to be Pete Carroll’s son and offensive line coach Brennan Carroll.
• Opponents have 14 sacks on Geno Smith in the last two games without Raiders LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson. Cleveland’s 10 sacks last week were just the second 10-plus-sack game since 2019.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 8.4 with a predicted total of 39.7.