Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Over (42.5) – SEATTLE (-3) vs LA Rams
This total of 42.5 points is significantly lower than when these teams met two weeks ago (57.5) and the total was 54.5 for the week 10 game in Los Angeles. Seattle’s offense has become a shell of itself as Russell Wilson averaged 7.4 yards per pass play through the first eight games and just 5.4 yppp in the second half of the season. This Rams defense presents some difficult problems for the Seahawks with Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey shadowing DK Metcalf in both games this year and holding him to 66 combined yards on 9 targets. Meanwhile, nickelback Troy Hill is conceding just 1.03 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) and should shut down Tyler Lockett on the inside. Aaron Donald had 16 pressures in two games versus Seattle this year but the Seahawks will be getting some help back on the offensive line. Starting RT Brandon Shell will return to the lineup after missing the last three games backup after backup tackle Cedric Ogbuehi surrendered an 8% pressure rate.
Seattle’s rush defense ranks 2nd, which will force a gimpy Jared Goff (recovering from thumb surgery) to move the ball through the air. There’s a chance we see backup QB John Wolford again as Sean McVay hasn’t officially named the starter, but Goff was throwing at practice and I expect him to be on the field. LT Andrew Whitworth was only conceding 0.7 pressures per game before his week 10 knee injury and the Los Angeles offensive line went from ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency to 18th without Whitworth down the stretch. Whitworth will be back this week to protect Goff against a Seahawks pass defense that has been better the last six games. Seattle has conceded just 4.5 yppp since week 12, when top CB Shaquill Griffin returned to the lineup, but the quarterbacks they faced were Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, Jared Goff, and CJ Beathard. The Seahawks have struggled defending receivers on the inside, allowing 1.52 yards per cover snap in the slot, and Cooper Kupp is averaging 1.84 yards per slot route run (2nd). Jamal Adams is banged-up with a shoulder injury but he will be on the field in some capacity which helps Seattle’s pass rush. Adams had 9.5 sacks this season while the next highest safety had 3.5 sacks.
Our model favors the Seahawks by 3.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.3 points, with Goff playing at his normal level (and Seattle by 6.2 with a total of 46.6 points). However, Goff’s ability to throw may be hampered, which could lead to a more conservative game-plan of more running and/or short passes. Even if that is the case there is still more than enough value to play the Over as Strong Opinion at 42.5 at -115 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.4
37.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.7%
43.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.9%
14.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.7%
32.6%
-
NYPP
6.6
5.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.6
24.3
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.1%
18.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.9%
47.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.8%
29.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
68.0
61.8
-
Early Down Succ
52.9%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
50.0%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.9%
31.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.2
-
Run Ratio
43.7%
39.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
29.3
-
Game Control
1.2
-1.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.2
45.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.6%
47.3%
-
Sack Rate
7.6%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
15.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.4%
32.5%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.7
24.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
19.1%
21.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.7%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.6%
37.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.9
69.5
-
Early Down Succ
56.1%
47.5%
-
Succ Rate
52.5%
46.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.1%
36.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
26.6
-
Run Ratio
40.3%
35.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.0
25.4
-
Game Control
3.3
-3.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
3.4 |
56.3% /
52.4% |
3.1% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.8 |
57.5% /
59.3% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
5.0 |
72 /
69 |
57.7% /
63.0% |
56.9% /
55.1% |
40.3% /
30.8% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.6% /
39.1% |
29.0 /
27.1 |
| 2 |
@PHI |
37 – 19 W |
9.4 |
67.9% /
46.5% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
9.2 /
5.6 |
59.0% /
73.1% |
12.8% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.7 |
67 /
69 |
65.4% /
57.1% |
62.7% /
56.5% |
52.8% /
17.1% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
1.4% |
58.2% /
37.7% |
31.6 /
29.1 |
| 3 |
@BUF |
32 – 35 L |
-8.9 |
58.8% /
56.8% |
5.9% /
10.8% |
3.1% /
3.0% |
9.1 /
7.4 |
68.8% /
61.9% |
18.8% /
14.3% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
66 /
58 |
65.5% /
59.6% |
63.6% /
58.6% |
48.3% /
57.1% |
7.2 /
6.5 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
36.2% |
27.0 /
32.9 |
| 4 |
NYG |
17 – 9 W |
4.1 |
50.0% /
41.5% |
5.9% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
47.8% /
56.0% |
17.4% /
12.0% |
2.5 /
5.4 |
57 /
66 |
53.7% /
51.0% |
49.1% /
47.0% |
28.3% /
34.9% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
37.9% |
23.6 /
31.0 |
| 5 |
@WAS |
30 – 10 W |
9.8 |
48.4% /
26.3% |
3.2% /
21.1% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
9.7 /
1.8 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
28.6% /
35.7% |
3.7 /
2.7 |
66 /
52 |
46.9% /
36.8% |
43.9% /
30.8% |
59.4% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
2.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.0% /
26.9% |
31.0 /
22.6 |
| 6 |
@SF |
16 – 24 L |
-10.5 |
42.1% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
8.1 |
63.2% /
37.8% |
26.3% /
18.9% |
5.9 /
3.3 |
57 /
70 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
49.1% /
47.1% |
43.1% /
33.1% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
52.9% |
26.4 /
22.3 |
| 7 |
CHI |
24 – 10 W |
9.2 |
52.9% /
40.9% |
2.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
44.1% /
29.4% |
29.4% /
17.6% |
4.7 /
2.9 |
68 /
61 |
54.7% /
41.9% |
48.5% /
37.7% |
41.2% /
32.6% |
5.5 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
27.9% |
34.4 /
16.3 |
| 8 |
@MIA |
17 – 28 L |
-9.2 |
46.0% /
43.5% |
3.2% /
4.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
65.5% /
40.0% |
13.8% /
24.0% |
4.5 /
2.2 |
92 /
48 |
56.2% /
48.6% |
52.2% /
41.7% |
21.0% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
3.0 |
2.2% /
4.2% |
31.5% /
52.1% |
28.2 /
34.6 |
| 10 |
SEA |
23 – 16 W |
5.6 |
52.5% /
44.2% |
7.5% /
14.0% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
7.1 /
5.1 |
55.2% /
45.5% |
20.7% /
9.1% |
3.7 /
5.1 |
69 /
65 |
52.9% /
43.1% |
53.6% /
44.6% |
35.2% /
40.5% |
5.6 /
5.1 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
42.0% /
33.8% |
29.0 /
28.1 |
| 11 |
@TB |
27 – 24 W |
2.4 |
60.8% /
42.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
3.9% /
4.2% |
7.4 /
4.3 |
20.0% /
44.4% |
50.0% /
22.2% |
1.9 /
2.3 |
71 /
67 |
49.1% /
42.3% |
49.3% /
43.3% |
34.9% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.2% /
26.9% |
29.3 /
32.4 |
| 12 |
SF |
20 – 23 L |
-3.4 |
57.6% /
43.2% |
6.1% /
5.4% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
5.5 /
6.3 |
53.6% /
45.5% |
25.0% /
24.2% |
4.5 /
3.5 |
61 /
70 |
63.8% /
49.1% |
55.7% /
44.3% |
40.3% /
56.6% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
3.3% /
2.9% |
45.9% /
47.1% |
26.9 /
28.1 |
| 13 |
@ARI |
38 – 28 W |
2.4 |
64.6% /
41.5% |
2.1% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
7.2 /
3.4 |
51.6% /
47.6% |
16.1% /
33.3% |
3.8 /
4.4 |
79 /
62 |
62.7% /
44.7% |
59.5% /
43.5% |
31.3% /
47.4% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
39.2% /
33.9% |
35.0 /
32.1 |
| 14 |
NE |
24 – 3 W |
15.2 |
34.6% /
27.6% |
3.8% /
20.7% |
4.0% /
4.3% |
5.1 /
3.9 |
44.4% /
44.8% |
19.4% /
13.8% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
62 /
58 |
44.4% /
43.9% |
40.3% /
36.2% |
40.9% /
44.5% |
5.1 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.1% /
50.0% |
19.3 /
37.3 |
| 15 |
NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-7.9 |
40.5% /
45.5% |
8.1% /
6.1% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
47.4% /
45.2% |
21.1% /
16.1% |
6.0 /
3.0 |
56 /
64 |
50.0% /
47.7% |
42.9% /
45.3% |
31.4% /
27.3% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
48.4% |
29.5 /
35.0 |
| 16 |
@SEA |
9 – 20 L |
-1.9 |
43.5% /
45.9% |
6.5% /
13.5% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
27.6% /
45.8% |
20.7% /
16.7% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
75 /
61 |
35.2% /
46.5% |
37.3% /
45.9% |
29.0% /
36.0% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
39.3% |
21.4 /
30.8 |
| 17 |
ARI |
18 – 7 W |
0.0 |
35.0% /
41.9% |
5.0% /
12.9% |
2.6% /
3.7% |
5.6 /
5.4 |
36.7% /
33.3% |
36.7% /
27.8% |
3.7 /
2.7 |
70 /
49 |
33.3% /
43.6% |
35.7% /
38.8% |
45.3% /
40.2% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
36.7% |
21.3 /
28.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
38 – 25 W |
8.5 |
57.9% /
50.0% |
7.9% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
7.9 /
7.8 |
55.0% /
47.6% |
15.0% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
3.4 |
58 /
77 |
61.7% /
50.8% |
56.9% /
49.4% |
38.1% /
35.6% |
6.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
34.5% /
27.3% |
31.3 /
24.7 |
| 2 |
NE |
35 – 30 W |
0.4 |
70.0% /
57.8% |
6.7% /
2.2% |
3.6% /
2.3% |
9.2 /
8.8 |
66.7% /
36.0% |
10.0% /
28.0% |
5.1 /
2.7 |
60 /
70 |
71.7% /
48.2% |
68.3% /
50.0% |
36.6% /
33.0% |
7.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.7% |
31.4 /
17.6 |
| 3 |
DAL |
38 – 31 W |
4.7 |
50.0% /
47.5% |
9.1% /
3.4% |
0.0% /
3.5% |
6.7 /
7.8 |
30.8% /
42.9% |
23.1% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
70 /
80 |
43.6% /
45.2% |
42.9% /
46.3% |
51.9% /
58.0% |
5.9 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
37.1% /
26.3% |
32.9 /
18.9 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
31 – 23 W |
6.0 |
63.9% /
56.5% |
5.6% /
2.2% |
2.9% /
4.4% |
9.5 /
6.8 |
61.5% /
59.1% |
11.5% /
13.6% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
62 /
68 |
71.4% /
58.2% |
62.9% /
57.4% |
49.4% /
21.4% |
7.1 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.9% /
32.4% |
31.6 /
23.2 |
| 5 |
MIN |
27 – 26 W |
-4.3 |
38.9% /
52.4% |
11.1% /
7.1% |
3.1% /
2.6% |
5.3 /
5.9 |
62.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
19.5% |
7.8 /
4.9 |
52 /
83 |
51.2% /
51.5% |
46.2% /
50.6% |
43.3% /
32.7% |
6.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
30.8% /
49.4% |
35.8 /
19.8 |
| 7 |
@ARI |
34 – 37 L |
7.2 |
57.7% /
54.2% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.0% /
2.1% |
7.2 /
7.5 |
76.7% /
54.5% |
13.3% /
24.2% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
82 /
81 |
70.1% /
60.3% |
64.6% /
54.3% |
39.2% /
44.5% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
36.6% /
40.7% |
28.0 /
29.6 |
| 8 |
SF |
37 – 27 W |
8.9 |
53.8% /
52.3% |
5.1% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.4 /
6.8 |
46.4% /
40.9% |
25.0% /
13.6% |
3.6 /
2.4 |
67 /
66 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
50.7% /
48.5% |
37.1% /
33.9% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
41.8% /
33.3% |
33.5 /
24.2 |
| 9 |
@BUF |
34 – 44 L |
-13.1 |
45.7% /
55.6% |
10.9% /
15.6% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
8.6 |
58.8% /
36.8% |
35.3% /
26.3% |
3.4 /
1.8 |
63 /
64 |
54.2% /
54.0% |
49.2% /
50.0% |
52.5% /
54.5% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
27.0% /
29.7% |
24.1 /
44.8 |
| 10 |
@LA |
16 – 23 L |
-5.6 |
44.2% /
52.5% |
14.0% /
7.5% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
45.5% /
55.2% |
9.1% /
20.7% |
5.1 /
3.7 |
65 /
69 |
43.1% /
52.9% |
44.6% /
53.6% |
40.5% /
35.2% |
5.1 /
5.6 |
1.5% /
1.4% |
33.8% /
42.0% |
28.1 /
29.0 |
| 11 |
ARI |
28 – 21 W |
4.6 |
54.8% /
51.1% |
9.7% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
61.3% /
55.6% |
19.4% /
22.2% |
5.3 /
3.2 |
62 /
63 |
59.6% /
52.9% |
58.1% /
52.4% |
37.2% /
22.6% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
28.6% |
24.5 /
26.3 |
| 12 |
@PHI |
23 – 17 W |
6.4 |
42.4% /
34.6% |
6.1% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.8 /
3.5 |
36.7% /
50.0% |
40.0% /
35.7% |
2.5 /
5.0 |
63 /
66 |
46.9% /
37.8% |
39.7% /
37.9% |
36.2% /
37.2% |
4.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
21.2% |
36.8 /
24.2 |
| 13 |
NYG |
12 – 17 L |
-0.6 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
10.4% /
8.3% |
2.3% /
4.5% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
54.5% /
48.4% |
18.2% /
16.1% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
70 /
55 |
52.7% /
47.6% |
47.1% /
41.8% |
48.3% /
45.2% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
56.4% |
27.3 /
30.6 |
| 14 |
NYJ |
40 – 3 W |
19.4 |
69.7% /
34.5% |
3.0% /
10.3% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
4.0 |
52.8% /
30.4% |
30.6% /
21.7% |
4.8 /
3.0 |
69 /
52 |
63.2% /
32.5% |
60.9% /
32.7% |
30.5% /
30.8% |
5.9 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
52.2% /
44.2% |
38.3 /
27.8 |
| 15 |
@WAS |
20 – 15 W |
8.3 |
37.0% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
6.8% |
3.7% /
3.6% |
4.5 /
4.6 |
57.7% /
65.0% |
15.4% /
10.0% |
7.0 /
4.2 |
53 /
79 |
51.3% /
42.6% |
47.2% /
45.6% |
43.7% /
20.7% |
5.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.1% /
25.3% |
29.4 /
19.0 |
| 16 |
LA |
20 – 9 W |
1.9 |
45.9% /
43.5% |
13.5% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.3 /
4.7 |
45.8% /
27.6% |
16.7% /
20.7% |
4.0 /
4.1 |
61 /
75 |
46.5% /
35.2% |
45.9% /
37.3% |
36.0% /
29.0% |
4.8 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
38.7% |
30.8 /
21.4 |
| 17 |
@SF |
26 – 23 W |
0.5 |
50.0% /
42.5% |
5.3% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.1 |
63.0% /
41.7% |
11.1% /
29.2% |
4.5 /
3.6 |
65 /
64 |
60.8% /
41.7% |
55.4% /
42.2% |
36.4% /
46.3% |
4.3 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
41.5% /
37.5% |
32.5 /
24.8 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
Seattle Seahawks