Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-12.5) vs Washington

• Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.55 EPA/play last week in his first week with a full complement of weapons.
• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce only got 3 targets with competition from the wide receivers, but I expect Kelce to be more involved on Monday night. Kelce has a league-high 73% success rate, and Washington’s defense is surrendering 0.57 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (30th).
• Kansas City RG Trey Smith and RT Jawaan Taylor left the game against the Raiders. The status of the right side of the offensive line will be important to keep tabs on leading up to this game. Smith ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency, and Taylor ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency. The cluster loss would be worth 1.5 points if both are sidelined according to our numbers.
• The Chiefs’ offensive line does catch a break with the Commanders missing edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, who has 5.5 sacks (6th).
• Washington will also be without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is averaging 0.18 EPA/play since the start of last season (10th). Backup Marcus Mariota is averaging 0.22 EPA/play (5th) during the same time span. Even still, Mariota is a 2.6-point downgrade from Daniels by our metrics.
• The positive news for the Commanders’ offense is that they will likely be getting back both starting wide receivers. WR Terry McLaurin has a 59% success rate, and WR Deebo Samuel has a 58% success rate (18th). Backups Jaylin Lane and Chris Moore have a 38% success rate and a 47% success rate, respectively.
• It’s early, but there does look like possible weather for this game. Our model is more conservative with weather conditions the further from gametime, but right now we have scoring conditions 0.7 points worse than average (as of Wednesday night).
• Our model makes Kansas City a 10.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.1.