Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved down to +3.5, but the Saints are still a Strong Opinion at that number.

Strong Opinion – NEW ORLEANS (+4) over Tampa Bay

• The Buccaneers lost WR Mike Evans and edge rusher Haason Reddick, who has 27 pressures (12th). Tampa Bay was already without WR Chris Godwin, RB Bucky Irving, and the starting right side of the offensive line.
• The Buccaneers offense is averaging 5.5 yppl (15th) with a 43% success rate (22nd), and I think they should be rated somewhere in that range.
• Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing a 45% success rate (17th) and will be without its top pass rusher.
• I don’t think the Buccaneers can be rated as an above-average team in their current state.
• So, the question is: how bad is New Orleans? The Saints are -0.6 net yppl (28th), and our model also has them rated 28th without starting C Erik McCoy, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency. This puts New Orleans about 5 points worse than average and they shouldn’t be a 4-point underdog at home against a worse than average team.
• Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing just -0.19 EPA/rush (4th), and Spencer Rattler will need to win this game with the passing attack.
• Rattler ranks 2nd relatively against the blitz and 7th relatively versus two-high coverages. The Buccaneers have a 42% blitz rate (5th-highest) and a 67% two-high rate (2nd-highest).
• Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s air-raid influence includes multi-receiver concepts (e.g., mesh, levels, or flood) that overload specific zones with more receivers than defenders can cover, resulting in a favorable matchup for Baker Mayfield, who is 2nd relatively versus zone compared to man-coverage. The Saints have an 85% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest).
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and the Saints apply to a 60-18 ATS situation that plays on bad teams (less than a 0.250 win percentage) on a losing streak and a bad result the previous week (lost by 12 as a 5-point dog to Chicago).

New Orleans is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 points or more.