Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – First-Half – Miami (+4.5) over ATLANTA

Lean – Over (44.5)

• Miami’s defense is surrendering a 48% success rate (27th), but I think their best players will be highlighted in this game, producing a relatively better outcome.
• Dolphins edge defender Jaelan Phillips is 18th in pass rushing efficiency, and he will line up across from Atlanta’s worst offensive lineman, RT Elijah Wilkinson, who ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Miami three-time All-Pro S Minkah Fitzpatrick is conceding only 6.3 yards per target, and he will contain TE Kyle Pitts, who is averaging 1.41 yards per route run (10th).
• High winds and rain resulted in Tua Tagovailoa’s 12-of-23 passing for just 100 yards with three Interceptions last week in Cleveland. Tagovailoa has consistently struggled against the elements in his career, but I expect a bounce back in the dome on Sunday.
• Falcons’ LB Divine Deablo left the last game in the first quarter due to a forearm injury and will be sidelined this week. Deablo has a 0.5% run stop rate (4th), and Atlanta’s coverage will also get worse with backup JD Bertrand, who surrendered 8.0 yards per target last season. Mike McDaniel’s system prioritizes screens, bubbles, and choice routes that get the ball to playmakers in space against linebackers, and I expect him to attack Bertrand this week.
• Tagovailoa might struggle against the Falcons blitz, but this is a favorable matchup for Dolphins RB De’Von Achane. Miami’s offense is averaging 0.02 EPA/play more rushing than passing, and Atlanta’s defense is surrendering a 47% rush success rate (31st). The Dolphins running backs have a 35.6% target share (3rd-highest), and the Falcons are surrendering 0.17 EPA/target to opposing running backs (27th).
• Tagovailoa has a career 0.16 EPA/play in the first half and 0.08 EPA/play in the second half. Tagovailoa’s yards per pass play drops by 0.3 when trailing, and I don’t trust him to get through the back door, if necessary, as often as other touchdown-underdog quarterbacks. Meanwhile, I do trust McDaniel’s script attacking Atlanta’s linebackers.
• Kirk Cousins is expected to make the start at quarterback for the Falcons in place of Michael Penix. I made no adjustment for that change.
• Our model makes Atlanta a 6.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 46.6 points, and the Dolphins are a better first-half team. Miami also applies to a very strong 142-50-3 ATS bounce-back situation.

Miami First-Half (+4.5) is a Strong Opinion at +4 or more.