Game Analysis

Green Bay (-3) over PITTSBURGH

• Green Bay’s defense had a 57% pressure rate against Arizona last week, the 6th-highest pressure rate by a team in a game this season.
• Packers edge defender Micah Parsons had a career-best 44% pass-rush win rate versus the Cardinals. Parsons has 37 pressures in 6 games this season and has already surpassed all but one total from every Green Bay defender last year.
• Aaron Rodgers will counter Parsons and the Packers’ pass rush with his 2.58 average time to throw (2nd-quickest).
• Rodgers ranks 3rd relatively versus a standard pass rush compared to a blitz, and he has a favorable matchup against Green Bay’s defense with a 77% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
• The Steelers use heavy formations at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, and the Packers are surrendering 42% more yppp against heavy formations compared to 3+ WR formations (31st).
• Green Bay’s offense also likes to get two tight ends on the field, and TE Tucker Kraft leads the NFL, averaging 0.80 EPA/target. Pittsburgh’s defense is surrendering a 65% success rate to opposing tight ends (27th), and Jordan Love will feature Kraft on Sunday night.
• Our model favors the Packers by 3.4 with a predicted total of 44.2.