Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *HOUSTON (-1) over San Francisco

Strong Opinion – Over (41.5)

• San Francisco’s defense is 0.08 EPA/play worse with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa off the field since 2019. We expect 65 plays for the Texans, which means the two are worth 5 points.
• In addition to the losses of Warner and Bosa, the 49ers will be without edge defender Bryce Huff as well. Huff had a 15.4% pressure rate, Bosa had a 15.6% pressure rate, and San Francisco’s remaining starting defensive line of Mykel Williams, Sam Okuayinonu, Alfred Collins, and Jordan Elliott is averaging a 7.6% pressure rate.
• Robert Saleh, 49ers defensive coordinator, is not going to send more pass rushers to increase the pressure despite the lack of talent remaining on the defensive line. San Francisco’s defense has a league-low 22% blitz rate.
• CJ Stroud averaged 7.8 yppp against Baltimore’s decimated defense in week 5, and I expect similar against San Francisco’s decimated defense.
• I’m adjusting for the loss of Nico Collins because he’s been seeing the bulk of the attention from opposing defenses, but it’s noteworthy that he is averaging 0.05 EPA/target this season compared to Xavier Hutchinson, Jaylin Noel, and Jayden Higgins combining to average 0.24 EPA/target. There hasn’t been as much of a gap between Stroud’s weapons as there has been in previous seasons.
• The 49ers’ ground game was much better with George Kittle back last Sunday night, as they averaged 5.4 yards per carry with Kittle on the field and 2.0 yards per carry without.
• San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey will need to keep it going on the ground because Mac Jones won’t have his running back as available on screen passes. The Texans are allowing a league-low -0.42 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• The 49ers just closed as home underdogs to the Falcons. I do not believe San Francisco is better than Houston on a neutral field as this line implies, without Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Bryce Huff, and Brock Purdy.
• Our model favors the Texans by 3.2 points, with 47.6 total points, and the Niners apply to a negative 132-212-9 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s 20-10 win over the Falcons.

Houston is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2 or less and the Over is a Strong Opinion at 42.5 points or less.