Buffalo Bills @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Oct 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 269
Odds: Carolina Panthers +7, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Buffalo (-7) vs CAROLINA

  • Bryce Young is averaging -0.02 EPA/play this season, while Andy Dalton has averaged 0.01 EPA/play since arriving in Carolina. Similar to the Jets situation, the veteran backup has been slightly better recently, and I’m not making an adjustment to Carolina’s offense if Young is unable to suit up.
  • Dalton or Young will catch a small break as the Bills will be without interior defender DaQuan Jones, who has a 9.7% pressure rate. Backup Deone Walker has a 6.0% pressure rate.
  • The Panthers have a league-high 48% rush success rate and a favorable matchup on the ground as the Bills are surrendering 0.06 EPA/rush (29th).
  • Carolina’s defense is conceding a league-low 30% rush success rate, and I expect the Bills to air it out with Josh Allen coming out of the bye.
  • Our model makes Buffalo a 6.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.
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