Game Analysis
Lean – Over (44.5) – Kansas City (-6) vs CHICAGO
I think Kansas City’s offense is underrated as we head into the playoffs now that they are fully healthy, but we haven’t found a good spot to back them so far in December as they’ve faced two divisional opponents in tough weather conditions along with Bill Belichick coming off a loss. We’re also going to pass again this week because the Bears match-up well against the Chiefs and there’s a chance Kansas City will have nothing to play for if the Patriots beat the Bills and the Texans lose to the Buccaneers. Tyreek Hill is gaining 2.52 yards per route run (4th), but Eddie Jackson is one of the best centerfield safeties in the NFL and the Pro Bowler will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to find anything with the deep ball. Travis Kelce is averaging 2.30 yards per route run (6th) but Chicago’s defense is allowing only 6.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (4th). Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency and should limit Khalil Mack, but overall this is not a good matchup for the Chiefs’ attack.
Mitchell Trubisky’s performance has been all over the place in the second half of the season, but his short passing game has a chance to succeed on Sunday night against these KC linebackers. Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens are combining to surrender 1.39 yards per cover snap and the Bears are targeting running backs on 26.5% of passes (5th-most). The Chiefs defense added Terrell Suggs but I do not expect him to make much of an impact. Suggs ranks 8th-worst in pass rushing efficiency among 61 qualifying edge defenders this season.
Kansas City could rest some starters in this game depending on Saturday’s results. Our model currently favors the Chiefs by 4.0 with a predicted total of 47.0 assuming Kansas City fields their full squad.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.7
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.2%
43.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
0.8%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.6%
18.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.8%
41.9%
-
NYPP
7.5
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.1
26.4
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
17.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.3%
53.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.9%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.9
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
51.5%
51.0%
-
Succ Rate
49.8%
47.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.5%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.2
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
27.0
-
Game Control
5.7
-5.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.1
39.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.9%
45.3%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
5.3%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.9%
38.6%
-
NYPP
5.5
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.2
25.6
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.4%
20.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.5%
43.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
22.9%
32.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.3
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
46.9%
48.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.7%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.0
-
Run Ratio
38.5%
39.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
30.4
-
Game Control
0.2
-0.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@JAC |
40 – 26 W |
11.7 |
58.8% /
52.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
11.1 /
10.2 |
57.7% /
43.8% |
26.9% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
5.1 |
60 /
50 |
62.5% /
50.0% |
58.3% /
50.0% |
62.3% /
55.4% |
8.2 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
43.3% /
32.0% |
38.4 /
23.8 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
28 – 10 W |
8.3 |
56.5% /
46.3% |
4.3% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
9.4 /
4.3 |
36.4% /
52.6% |
36.4% /
26.3% |
1.4 /
6.8 |
68 /
60 |
49.1% /
48.9% |
50.0% /
48.3% |
62.3% /
38.4% |
6.8 /
5.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
31.7% |
26.2 /
25.3 |
| 3 |
BAL |
33 – 28 W |
7.1 |
57.9% /
34.8% |
2.6% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
5.4 |
46.2% /
71.9% |
26.9% /
6.3% |
5.4 /
6.3 |
64 /
78 |
55.8% /
50.8% |
53.1% /
50.0% |
49.5% /
37.6% |
7.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
41.0% |
25.5 /
26.0 |
| 4 |
@DET |
34 – 30 W |
-1.3 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
6.9 |
60.0% /
65.7% |
24.0% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
67 /
73 |
54.4% /
61.7% |
53.7% /
57.5% |
37.2% /
52.3% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
4.5% /
2.7% |
37.3% /
47.9% |
22.5 /
33.3 |
| 5 |
IND |
13 – 19 L |
-1.9 |
39.5% /
48.3% |
9.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.7 /
5.2 |
42.9% /
68.9% |
35.7% /
11.1% |
2.6 /
4.0 |
57 /
74 |
42.9% /
67.9% |
40.4% /
60.8% |
53.1% /
22.4% |
5.7 /
4.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
24.6% /
60.8% |
25.1 /
32.0 |
| 6 |
HOU |
24 – 31 L |
2.6 |
44.4% /
59.5% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.8% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
45.5% /
56.1% |
18.2% /
12.2% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
47 /
83 |
44.7% /
62.1% |
44.7% /
57.8% |
42.1% /
25.2% |
6.6 /
5.7 |
2.1% /
1.2% |
23.4% /
49.4% |
27.2 /
32.4 |
| 7 |
@DEN |
30 – 6 W |
11.6 |
51.6% /
25.6% |
3.2% /
20.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
3.1 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
25.9% /
14.3% |
3.0 /
3.4 |
58 /
64 |
46.3% /
37.5% |
43.1% /
31.3% |
43.9% /
37.6% |
4.7 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.6% /
32.8% |
36.8 /
23.4 |
| 8 |
GB |
24 – 31 L |
-3.7 |
47.4% /
52.6% |
5.3% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
6.7 |
75.0% /
57.7% |
5.0% /
7.7% |
4.4 /
4.5 |
58 /
64 |
57.4% /
55.1% |
56.9% /
54.7% |
38.6% /
48.1% |
5.8 /
5.8 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
40.6% |
28.6 /
26.6 |
| 9 |
MIN |
26 – 23 W |
0.3 |
52.5% /
41.0% |
12.5% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.4 |
55.6% /
25.9% |
22.2% /
25.9% |
8.2 /
3.6 |
58 /
66 |
60.5% /
34.0% |
53.4% /
34.8% |
53.6% /
40.6% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
40.9% |
26.1 /
28.8 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
32 – 35 L |
3.6 |
52.8% /
39.1% |
3.8% /
17.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.3 |
52.0% /
69.2% |
20.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
8.7 |
78 /
49 |
53.2% /
64.1% |
52.6% /
55.1% |
41.5% /
71.4% |
6.8 /
7.6 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
32.1% /
53.1% |
30.3 /
24.0 |
| 11 |
@LAC |
24 – 17 W |
3.2 |
42.4% /
42.6% |
3.0% /
3.7% |
3.1% /
7.7% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
51.9% /
47.4% |
14.8% /
10.5% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
60 /
73 |
47.8% /
46.4% |
46.7% /
43.8% |
36.5% /
44.1% |
5.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
26.0% |
33.6 /
20.8 |
| 13 |
OAK |
40 – 9 W |
18.8 |
43.3% /
56.3% |
3.3% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
55.2% /
56.0% |
34.5% /
32.0% |
3.3 /
4.9 |
59 /
57 |
47.8% /
60.9% |
49.2% /
56.1% |
29.0% /
34.3% |
4.4 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
49.2% /
43.9% |
36.1 /
21.4 |
| 14 |
@NE |
23 – 16 W |
5.9 |
48.8% /
32.5% |
2.4% /
7.5% |
2.5% /
2.7% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
31.0% /
45.5% |
17.2% /
22.7% |
2.6 /
4.3 |
70 /
62 |
45.1% /
42.6% |
41.4% /
37.1% |
36.1% /
42.4% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.5% |
27.8 /
34.8 |
| 15 |
DEN |
23 – 3 W |
13.0 |
56.8% /
31.0% |
8.1% /
4.8% |
2.9% /
2.5% |
8.8 /
4.7 |
48.0% /
40.0% |
12.0% /
33.3% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
62 /
57 |
54.0% /
32.5% |
53.2% /
33.3% |
37.0% /
50.2% |
6.8 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
26.3% |
24.3 /
25.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
GB |
3 – 10 L |
-2.9 |
34.0% /
40.0% |
10.0% /
14.3% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
4.7 |
40.0% /
22.7% |
26.7% /
36.4% |
3.1 /
2.1 |
65 /
57 |
41.7% /
39.5% |
35.4% /
33.3% |
38.2% /
53.1% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.1% /
38.6% |
22.7 /
30.9 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
16 – 14 W |
2.6 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
48.3% /
50.0% |
20.7% /
25.0% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
56 /
76 |
47.7% /
55.2% |
44.6% /
50.0% |
35.5% /
19.1% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.8% /
31.6% |
20.5 /
24.6 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
31 – 15 W |
13.9 |
55.9% /
57.4% |
8.8% /
8.5% |
3.2% /
7.0% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
41.7% /
57.1% |
20.8% /
19.0% |
3.8 /
3.3 |
58 /
68 |
46.7% /
61.8% |
50.0% /
57.4% |
28.5% /
25.3% |
5.1 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
41.4% /
30.9% |
36.9 /
28.7 |
| 4 |
MIN |
16 – 6 W |
10.0 |
55.9% /
40.5% |
2.9% /
14.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
4.3 |
27.3% /
37.5% |
21.2% /
25.0% |
2.2 /
2.5 |
67 /
58 |
43.8% /
39.5% |
41.8% /
39.7% |
23.0% /
36.9% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
49.3% /
27.6% |
32.4 /
22.3 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
21 – 24 L |
-4.6 |
50.0% /
53.1% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.2 |
41.2% /
64.1% |
35.3% /
5.1% |
2.5 /
4.3 |
51 /
71 |
50.0% /
61.4% |
47.1% /
59.2% |
27.1% /
28.1% |
4.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
33.3% /
54.9% |
31.7 /
32.0 |
| 7 |
NO |
25 – 36 L |
-8.2 |
44.6% /
48.7% |
3.6% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.0 |
28.6% /
54.3% |
28.6% /
14.3% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
63 /
74 |
49.0% /
54.4% |
42.9% /
51.4% |
11.1% /
42.9% |
4.0 /
5.7 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
11.1% /
47.3% |
26.1 /
39.5 |
| 8 |
LAC |
16 – 17 L |
2.7 |
41.0% /
43.3% |
10.3% /
3.3% |
2.9% /
3.4% |
5.8 /
6.5 |
47.4% /
16.7% |
28.9% /
50.0% |
4.3 /
3.0 |
77 /
42 |
45.9% /
40.6% |
44.2% /
35.7% |
60.1% /
35.5% |
5.0 /
5.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
49.4% /
28.6% |
30.7 /
34.0 |
| 9 |
@PHI |
14 – 22 L |
-7.7 |
25.0% /
51.2% |
12.5% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
3.4 /
4.2 |
42 /
78 |
40.6% /
53.4% |
35.7% /
51.3% |
61.0% /
20.9% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
44.9% |
28.9 /
26.9 |
| 10 |
DET |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
42.9% /
37.5% |
17.9% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.2 /
5.4 |
41.7% /
48.1% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
3.4 /
3.6 |
52 /
75 |
48.7% /
44.4% |
42.3% /
41.3% |
25.2% /
28.3% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.2% /
36.0% |
25.8 /
30.0 |
| 11 |
@LA |
7 – 17 L |
-3.8 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
6.0% /
0.0% |
2.1% /
5.6% |
3.9 /
9.6 |
50.0% /
44.1% |
20.8% /
17.6% |
3.1 /
3.2 |
74 /
52 |
47.3% /
52.5% |
43.2% /
46.2% |
9.0% /
54.1% |
3.6 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
32.4% /
65.4% |
24.8 /
33.5 |
| 12 |
NYG |
19 – 14 W |
3.2 |
44.2% /
35.1% |
4.7% /
2.7% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
3.6 |
30.8% /
38.1% |
30.8% /
23.8% |
2.5 /
5.2 |
69 /
58 |
44.2% /
42.9% |
39.1% /
36.2% |
49.0% /
43.6% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
37.7% /
36.2% |
31.7 /
32.9 |
| 13 |
@DET |
24 – 20 W |
-3.8 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
2.6% /
5.0% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
8.5 /
6.5 |
47.8% /
51.9% |
21.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
3.9 |
62 /
67 |
60.0% /
44.0% |
56.5% /
44.8% |
26.5% /
47.5% |
6.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.1% /
40.3% |
24.1 /
31.1 |
| 14 |
DAL |
31 – 24 W |
6.8 |
48.5% /
49.0% |
6.1% /
3.9% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
23.5% /
13.6% |
4.4 /
3.7 |
67 /
73 |
49.1% /
50.0% |
49.3% /
47.9% |
45.3% /
39.5% |
5.7 /
5.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
30.1% |
40.1 /
21.0 |
| 15 |
@GB |
13 – 21 L |
-9.0 |
44.6% /
38.2% |
5.4% /
2.9% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
25.0% |
18.5% /
8.3% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
83 /
58 |
42.4% /
32.5% |
42.2% /
32.8% |
31.8% /
51.4% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
32.5% /
41.4% |
26.0 /
38.3 |
Kansas City Chiefs
@ 
Chicago Bears