Game Analysis

GREEN BAY (-13) vs Carolina

• Carolina’s offensive line situation is turning dire, and it’s no surprise that Andy Dalton averaged only 4.2 yards per pass play last week. Panthers starter RT Taylor Moton left the game against the Bills, as well as C Cade Mays and RG Brady Christensen. Carolina was already without starting guard Robert Hunt and backup guard Chandler Zavala. The cluster loss on the Panthers’ offensive line would be worth 2.5 points by our metrics if none of the losses are able to suit up on Sunday.
• Jordan Love’s 232 yards against man-coverage in Pittsburgh were the most by a quarterback this year, but it will be a completely different game this week as Carolina’s defense has an 85% zone coverage rate (4th-highest).
• The Panthers are surrendering a league-high 0.86 EPA/target to opposing tight ends, and they will struggle versus TE Tucker Kraft, whose 131 yards after the catch last Sunday night were the 3rd-most in a game by a tight end in the last decade.
• The Packers should establish an early lead, and we see this number as slightly short, but the backdoor is wide open once Green Bay abandons the passing attack and starts to kill the clock, as Carolina’s defense is conceding just a 33.1% rush success rate (4th).
• Our model favors the Packers by 14.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.7 points.