Game Analysis

Lean – HOUSTON (-1.5) over Denver

Lean – Over (39.5)

• Houston’s offensive coordinator tried to help out a putrid offensive line by using jumbo personnel 33% of the time last week. The Texans averaged 6.3 yppl with an extra offensive lineman on the field against the 49ers.
• However, I’m not convinced CJ Stroud’s offense is fixed because San Francisco’s decimated defense isn’t really a proper test. Houston has averaged 6.0 yppl against three JV defenses in the Ravens (missing 5 starters), Titans, and 49ers (missing Warner, Bosa, Huff). The Texans have averaged 4.7 yppl in the other four games.
• The Broncos certainly don’t qualify as another JV defense despite missing Defensive Player of the Year CB Pat Surtain, who is worth 1.5 points according to our metrics.
• Denver’s defense has a 44% pressure rate (2nd), and edge defender Nik Bonitto leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency. Bonitto will wreak havoc across from rookie LT Aireontae Ersery, who has surrendered 4 sacks (8th-most).
• Bo Nix’s 11.7 air yards per attempt last week was the 2nd-highest mark of his career, but he will have to shift to shorter passes on Sunday as Houston’s defense has the 4th-highest cover 4 rate.
• The Texans have a 40% pressure rate (7th), but I think Houston’s pass rush will be contained by a Broncos offensive line leading the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.
• Denver has been playing elite football of late, but teams coming off consecutive high-scoring wins tend to letdown on the road and the Broncos apply to a 33-88-2 ATS situation based on that premise.
• Our model favors the Texans by 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 42.3 points, but I’ll lean with Houston based on the situation.