Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *PITTSBURGH (+3 -105) over Indianapolis

• The early week betting market decided the Colts are among the league’s elite after beating up on the woeful Titans squad that was missing WR1 and four starters on defense.
• Indianapolis’ 3.46 points per drive would be the best number this century, which sounds incredibly unlikely to continue for an offense quarterbacked by Daniel Jones.
• The Colts have scored a touchdown on 19 of 22 red zone trips since week 4, but I expect them to be closer to the 50% they have been with Steichen the last two seasons.
• Green Bay closed -145 on the moneyline in Pittsburgh last Sunday night, and Indianapolis was -170 when we bet this.
• The Packers have been rated in the market consistently 3 points better than the Colts for the last month, and I’m not ready to call Indianapolis better than Green Bay at this point, just because they destroyed Tennessee at home.
• Pittsburgh’s defense has avenues to stop Jones. The Colts lead the NFL with a 34% play action rate, but the Steelers rank 4th relatively versus play action compared to standard dropbacks.
• Indianapolis WR Josh Downs 65% success rate (5th), but he will be shut down on the inside across from nickelback Jalen Ramsey, who is conceding just 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).
• The Colts’ defense is without two starters and Aaron Rodgers can attack backup cornerback Johnathan Edwards, who is surrendering 1.02 more yards per cover snap than starting CB Charvarius Ward.
• Indianapolis is worse without edge defender Samson Ebukam, who has a 16.5% pressure rate. Ebukam’s on the sideline means more reps for edge defender Kwity Paye, who has an 11.6% pressure rate.
• Our model favors Indianapolis by just 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 48.5 points, and the Colts are due for a letdown after scoring 38 points and winning by 14 points or more in each of the past two weeks.
• Teams that scored 31 points or more and won by 14 points or more in each of the last two weeks are just 59-101-4 ATS on the road, including only 23-51-2 ATS if their opponent is off a loss.

Pittsburgh is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -120 odds or better.